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Thursday Conversation - Alasdair Macleod


As we begin to look ahead to 2021, today brings the first of three straight Thursday Conversation podcasts. For this first installment, we visit again with Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney in order to get his thoughts on where we've been and where we're going.

I've known Alasdair for nearly a decade now and, over that time, he has consistently provided us with thoughtful and wise commentary on macroeconomics and the precious metals. So as 2020 wanes and 2021 approaches, I thought it would be wise to pick his brain regrading what lies ahead.

Usually, I try to summarize these podcasts into a few bullet points for you but I'm not sure I can do that this time. As you'll soon find out, I just sort of hit the record button and got Alasdair talking. Over the fifty minutes that followed, he shared all sorts of information that you may need to remind and play twice in order to ensure you didn't miss anything.

Thanks again to Alasdair for so generously sharing his time today. Before you go, please be sure to check the link below for Alasdair's latest research piece. Much like Ronni at IGWT, inflation is on Alasdair's mind and, as you know, price inflation and negative real rates are going to be a big story in the months ahead.

Thanks for listening,



Spartacus Rex
Dec 4, 2020 - 10:30pm

Just IMHO...

The Inflation Bite coming down the Pike

is going to make the Late 70's (Carter years)

look like a walk in the Park!

Anyone else remember the double digit

Mortgage Rates of the late 70's?

But Wait...

There's MORE!!!

I was informed during Thanksgiving Day Festivities

whereby I grilled Moose Steaks,

because I am not a fan of Turkey!

that I have TWO!!! more G-Kids coming due in 2021


Talk about Ingrate Progeny...

How in Heaven's Name is One at advanced Age

expected to provide for that Surprise????


(ie 'Just Shoot Me Now')

Island Tealtonym9
Dec 4, 2020 - 11:21am

Dental Hygienist

Correct...based on your description of "required" uniform looks like you could step right into the ER and pitch in.

I remember,as a child, sitting in the dentist chair looking at the light jade green equipment and seeing where the requisite ash tray was secured.

Everyone have a good weekend 🙂😊😂

Dec 4, 2020 - 11:16am

I'm only going on 8 years but....

I felt it!

Blind date fart in the car (HQ) the original!
Dec 4, 2020 - 10:58am

2 patients cancelled this

2 patients cancelled this morning. 3 cancelled yesterday at my other office. Covid fear starting to hit dental offices again. My guess is we see reductions in spending again, more biz closures, more fear porn.

This is why i get so overheated bordering on sick during the hygiene workday at my tuesday/friday office. Thankfully today is only a 3/4 day, tuesdays its 10 hours, ugh. Used to get breaks b4 covid to shed earloop only mask and degown leaving the op. Now, patients freak if you dont have everything on the entire time. Is it like this in doctors offices? Hospitals? I dunno, dont go to them.

No face shield for this pic. N95 mask, earloop mask, headcover, cloth gown, scrubs, shorts/tshirt...too hot. Add the gloves and your an encapsulated heat machine. 2 masks SUCK!

So glad to get fresh air on my afternoon inspect today where i am my own man and can make my own decisions. Not complaining about the dental work, but sometimes...

Dec 4, 2020 - 10:36am

Give me some liniment

Collapse is imminent

Hey, just wait a minute

I wanna trade right into it

Aw shit, screwed again.

Damn you Lucy!

Dec 4, 2020 - 10:03am


the volatility is not just banks or govt--too many hedgefunds trade algos too as well as other, and all play with leverage.

Makes it difficult for us, and an=t one time the SEC and CFTC did protect "Us" the relative little guys.

Dec 4, 2020 - 10:02am

The fix is in...

Well the boys worked it over once again. They love Friday's. Let's endure about 30 minutes of the unwind and see if we can get some momentum.

Dec 4, 2020 - 10:01am

Critical support for $

We have made new lows three times this AM. Then immediately a rapid and strong reversal has occurred. A vicious fight is underway.

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Dec 4, 2020 - 10:00am

pay does not keep up with real inflation

most people are tied to the govt cpi via union contracts or companies that compete with union companies for labor pool. But this has only been going on since about 1982.

Seniors get the govt cpi basically. But they do get medicare, which is the real bargain for them, since costs are inflating there by 8% at least and the seniors get the benefit there, although screwed big time by social security and low interest rates.

eg, if I have accumulated 2 million in my life and I get screwed by 5% on interest, that's 100k a year, and on social security, if they have screwed the people by the same 5% since 1982 that would mean the average soc sec PP would be more like 75k a year rather than 18k a year. Take 2 spouses and that's 100ka year difference, but do keep in mind the govt does not have the money to ay that out.

The minimum wage would not have been a fight had the govt reported true inflation companies get to "price" their products at higher inflation and on the margin nail employees for the reported CPI. So, that means the companies should be showing great profit increases but do not.

A bunch of "whys" there including why is the PE so high.

But before we make judgments we should walk in other peoples shoes to really understand.

The govt is not our friend in most cases.

Dec 4, 2020 - 9:55am

$ is extremely volatile this AM

I love the smell of desperation in the morning. I smell panic, and the dollar is showing that . Treasuries are being sold and then those dollars are being sold. If I was watching this s..t show from abroad I would be running for the exits with my dollars. This is going to blow up! There is a limit to their ability to control media, markets, and minds.

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/14

12/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/15 8:30 ET Empire State Index
12/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
12/16 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
12/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/18 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
12/18 10:00 ET LEIII

Key Economic Events Week of 12/7

12/8 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
12/9 10:00 ET JOLTS jop openings
12/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
12/10 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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