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Thursday Conversation - Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital


One of the few redeeming qualities of Twitter is that it has allowed me to get acquainted with all sorts of brilliant people whom I otherwise might never have met. One of these people is Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital and it's my pleasure to introduce him to you today.

Tavi is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital in Denver. Crescat is a global macro hedge fund but they put out some tremendously valuable research that is available to the general public. You've heard me refer to their quarterly summaries as "mini In Gold We Trust" reports and Tavi was honored that I would place them in that category.

Crescat's latest report just dropped back on Tuesday and it's embedded below. Please be sure to look it over and you might also review their website for other research and previous reports.

Thanks again to Tavi for so generously sharing his time. I think you'll find this podcast to be full of helpful and useful information.



Oct 30, 2020 - 4:07pm

We will get a combination of

We will get a combination of MMT and YCC, i.e. hugely negative real rates. It will all lead to a crushing stagflation.

BTW there are no Elite. Sure there are elitists, but they are just as confused about whats going on as anyone else, and they are reacting to events, and not controlling them . Its always tempting to believe that there is some huge conspiracy going on, running the world, and somehow many thousands of people are in on it - but managing to keeping it a secret from everybody else. It is not true. The world is far more complex than that.

Edit: And even if 350 mio. Americans won't need commodities because they are too poor, there are 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians who will. As Rick Rule say, the low commodity prices eventually cures themselves.

Oct 30, 2020 - 3:47pm


Not if The Elite have their way. Commodities peaked in 2007 and still remain in a deep 13 year old bear market. Higher commodity prices would cause higher interest rates, that isn't going to happen. The plan is too keep demand weak for the vast majority of population with low wages and debt slavery, thus far the plan is working out perfectly.

Trump couldn't stimulate real growth and neither will Biden if he wins. Credit growth has been dying even more in the past 8 months, without credit growth there can't be inflation. We currently have the tightest credit condition in recent US history, even worse then 2008.

I don't see any chance of inflation at all, in fact, just to make it official. I expect Biden and the other 'socialists' to start cutting entitlements in the coming years. How's that for a deflationary depression on Main Street?

Oct 30, 2020 - 1:53pm

Which is exactly why

Which is exactly why commodities and energy stocks is the trade of the century

gold way p
Oct 30, 2020 - 1:50pm


how come you always showup,seemingly to glout. Hope you're happy .

Oct 30, 2020 - 1:30pm

How's the inflation thesis working now?

It appears the inflation worries are falling apart once again. The already beaten down commodity complex is breaking lower once again. When are people going to learn that you can't get inflation when there's a massive lack of demand from the bottom 80% of the population?

Look at energy stocks today, the indexes are getting close to the March lows. That isn't a fear of inflation, that's called deflation.

Also, check out the US Dollar. This is the asset that's going to surprise most people as it moves higher and most likely makes new recent all-time highs. The Elite aren't going to stimulate the real economy, not gonna happen. The inflation thesis is silly at this point.

Oct 30, 2020 - 10:43am

Crawtestdad -- Ford Medical Center


Guess the expertise and reputation of Henry Ford Medical Center is good enough for most of us --if not for you -- along with individual confirmations from doctors treating thousands of patients.

The political motivations of those who defiantly oppose HDQ despite mountains of evidence are too obvious to deny.

Oct 30, 2020 - 10:17am


you promoted this post well in advance and I was looking forward to hearing it. Gald to report that I was not at all disappointed. So, here is another sound thinker that I've been introduced to for the first time as an daily listener.
Thanks buddy!

Oct 30, 2020 - 10:07am


I'll let the CDC address the safety of HCQ based on decades of data when prescribed to prevent Malaria. If you don't want to read the two-pager linked below....this is how 'dangerous' HCQ is according to the CDC: "Hydroxychloroquine can be prescribed to adults and children of all ages. It can also be safely taken by pregnant women and nursing mothers." Who should not take it: "People with psoriasis should not take hydroxychloroquine." What are potential side affects: "Hydroxychloroquine is a relatively well tolerated
medicine. The most common adverse reactions reported are stomach pain, nausea, vomiting, and headache

Now all of a sudden HCQ is deemed a killer? How convenient for big pharma.


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Oct 30, 2020 - 10:01am


Thanks for saying what most of us are thinking. The cure costs less than one ASE. (There, on topic.)

Oct 30, 2020 - 9:45am

Isn't it contradictory on the

Isn't it contradictory on the one hand to claim that COVID-19 is not as dangerous as it is made out to be, and on the other hand to recommend HCQ as a treatment? Because the less lethal the disease, the more safe the cure will need to be - to avoid the cure being more dangerous as the disease. And while there are evidence that HCQ can be beneficial, there is no where sufficient studies to sufficiently rule out side effects.

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Key Economic Events Week of 3/1

3/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 1:00 ET Goon Brainard
3/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
3/3 12:00 ET Goon Bostic
3/3 2:00 ET Goon Evans
3/4 8:30 ET Unit Labor Costs
3/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/4 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell
3/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 2/22

2/22 10:00 ET LEIII
2/23 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
2/23 10:00 ET CGP at US Senate
2/24 10:00 ET CGP at US House
2/24 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
2/25 8:30 ET Jobless claims
2/25 8:30 ET Durable goods
2/25 10:30 ET Goon Bullard
2/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
2/26 8:30 ET Core inflation
2/26 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/26 10:00 ET UMich sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/15

2/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
2/17 8:30 ET PPI
2/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
2/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
2/17 2:00 ET January FOMC minutes
2/18 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/18 8:30 ET Import price index
2/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
2/19 9:45 ET Markit Feb flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 2/8

2/8 12:00 ET Goon Mester speech
2/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
2/10 8:30 ET CPI
2/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
2/10 2:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
2/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
2/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 2/1

2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
2/3 8:15 ET ADP employment report
2/3 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
2/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
2/4 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
2/4 10:00 ET Factory orders
2/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 1/25

1/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/26 1:30 ET Comex option expiration
1/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/27 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
1/27 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
1/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
1/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 1/18

1/19 10:00 ET Mother for SecTreas hearing
1/20 12:00 ET POTUS Inauguration
1/21 ECB meeting and rate decision
1/21 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
1/22 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs (Jan)

Key Economic Events Week of 1/11

1/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
1/12 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
1/13 8:30 ET CPI
1/13 1:00 ET Goon Brainard speech
1/13 2:00 ET Beige Book
1/14 8:30 ET Import price index
1/14 12:30 ET Chief Goon Powell
1/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
1/15 8:30 ET PPI
1/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
1/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/4

1/4 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
1/4 10:00 ET Construction Spending
1/5 Georgia U.S. Senate election
1/5 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
1/6 US election certification
1/6 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
1/6 9:45 ET Markit service PMI
1/6 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/6 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes
1/7 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM service PMI
1/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/8 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/21

12/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
12/22 8:30 ET Q3 GDP final guess
12/22 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
12/23 8:30 ET Durable Goods
12/23 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending
12/23 8:30 ET Core Inflation

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