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Thursday Conversation - Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital


One of the few redeeming qualities of Twitter is that it has allowed me to get acquainted with all sorts of brilliant people whom I otherwise might never have met. One of these people is Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital and it's my pleasure to introduce him to you today.

Tavi is a partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital in Denver. Crescat is a global macro hedge fund but they put out some tremendously valuable research that is available to the general public. You've heard me refer to their quarterly summaries as "mini In Gold We Trust" reports and Tavi was honored that I would place them in that category.

Crescat's latest report just dropped back on Tuesday and it's embedded below. Please be sure to look it over and you might also review their website for other research and previous reports.

Thanks again to Tavi for so generously sharing his time. I think you'll find this podcast to be full of helpful and useful information.



Oct 30, 2020 - 4:07pm

We will get a combination of

We will get a combination of MMT and YCC, i.e. hugely negative real rates. It will all lead to a crushing stagflation.

BTW there are no Elite. Sure there are elitists, but they are just as confused about whats going on as anyone else, and they are reacting to events, and not controlling them . Its always tempting to believe that there is some huge conspiracy going on, running the world, and somehow many thousands of people are in on it - but managing to keeping it a secret from everybody else. It is not true. The world is far more complex than that.

Edit: And even if 350 mio. Americans won't need commodities because they are too poor, there are 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians who will. As Rick Rule say, the low commodity prices eventually cures themselves.

Oct 30, 2020 - 3:47pm


Not if The Elite have their way. Commodities peaked in 2007 and still remain in a deep 13 year old bear market. Higher commodity prices would cause higher interest rates, that isn't going to happen. The plan is too keep demand weak for the vast majority of population with low wages and debt slavery, thus far the plan is working out perfectly.

Trump couldn't stimulate real growth and neither will Biden if he wins. Credit growth has been dying even more in the past 8 months, without credit growth there can't be inflation. We currently have the tightest credit condition in recent US history, even worse then 2008.

I don't see any chance of inflation at all, in fact, just to make it official. I expect Biden and the other 'socialists' to start cutting entitlements in the coming years. How's that for a deflationary depression on Main Street?

Oct 30, 2020 - 1:53pm

Which is exactly why

Which is exactly why commodities and energy stocks is the trade of the century

gold way p
Oct 30, 2020 - 1:50pm


how come you always showup,seemingly to glout. Hope you're happy .

Oct 30, 2020 - 1:30pm

How's the inflation thesis working now?

It appears the inflation worries are falling apart once again. The already beaten down commodity complex is breaking lower once again. When are people going to learn that you can't get inflation when there's a massive lack of demand from the bottom 80% of the population?

Look at energy stocks today, the indexes are getting close to the March lows. That isn't a fear of inflation, that's called deflation.

Also, check out the US Dollar. This is the asset that's going to surprise most people as it moves higher and most likely makes new recent all-time highs. The Elite aren't going to stimulate the real economy, not gonna happen. The inflation thesis is silly at this point.

Oct 30, 2020 - 10:43am

Crawtestdad -- Ford Medical Center


Guess the expertise and reputation of Henry Ford Medical Center is good enough for most of us --if not for you -- along with individual confirmations from doctors treating thousands of patients.

The political motivations of those who defiantly oppose HDQ despite mountains of evidence are too obvious to deny.

Oct 30, 2020 - 10:17am


you promoted this post well in advance and I was looking forward to hearing it. Gald to report that I was not at all disappointed. So, here is another sound thinker that I've been introduced to for the first time as an daily listener.
Thanks buddy!

Oct 30, 2020 - 10:07am


I'll let the CDC address the safety of HCQ based on decades of data when prescribed to prevent Malaria. If you don't want to read the two-pager linked below....this is how 'dangerous' HCQ is according to the CDC: "Hydroxychloroquine can be prescribed to adults and children of all ages. It can also be safely taken by pregnant women and nursing mothers." Who should not take it: "People with psoriasis should not take hydroxychloroquine." What are potential side affects: "Hydroxychloroquine is a relatively well tolerated
medicine. The most common adverse reactions reported are stomach pain, nausea, vomiting, and headache

Now all of a sudden HCQ is deemed a killer? How convenient for big pharma.


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Oct 30, 2020 - 10:01am


Thanks for saying what most of us are thinking. The cure costs less than one ASE. (There, on topic.)

Oct 30, 2020 - 9:45am

Isn't it contradictory on the

Isn't it contradictory on the one hand to claim that COVID-19 is not as dangerous as it is made out to be, and on the other hand to recommend HCQ as a treatment? Because the less lethal the disease, the more safe the cure will need to be - to avoid the cure being more dangerous as the disease. And while there are evidence that HCQ can be beneficial, there is no where sufficient studies to sufficiently rule out side effects.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Forum Discussion

by Spartacus Rex, Dec 4, 2020 - 10:57pm
by Spartacus Rex, Dec 4, 2020 - 10:52pm
by ancientmoney, Dec 4, 2020 - 2:33pm