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TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 15


It was a great end to a great week where the old TFMR adage is proven yet again. To celebrate, I thought we should make this podcast immediately public in the hope that more people will choose to come along with us on this ride.

We are in the early stages of what will be the greatest precious metal bull market you are likely to see in your lifetime. To profit from this...and to secure your future...I urge you to consider a membership to TFMR. Its only $12/month and, this weekend only, we're running a discount due to the uncertain economic times.

And just so you know, it's not like we just stumbled upon this last week. Here are links to our two most recent annual forecasts. Please take a look. You'll see that we're clearly onto something and ahead of the curve in terms of analysis:

So, if you'd like to join us, just go to this link: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe. Once there, select the monthly subscription option and then enter the coupon code "GOLD". This will save you $6 on your first month but every dollar counts at a time like this. I hope you'll join us. You'll find that the regular $12/month cost can be made up pretty quickly through the information we share here.

For today, just a lengthy general discussion followed by a mention of this story that broke right after the NYSE close: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-warns-stocks-face-significant-decl...

From there, we begin with these screenshots:

Next, we discuss Comex gold and silver and the persistent premiums/spreads versus spot:

Next, we check the daily and weekly charts of the mining shares:

And we close the week as we always do, with a look at your latest CoTs...which remain the most"bullish" since late June of last year.

Again, I hope non-members of TFMR will take the time to join us. You can bump along doing your own thing OR you can spend 40¢/day to learn A LOT about the precious metals and mining shares and then put that knowledge to use.

Have a great weekend, everyone!



May 16, 2020 - 11:12pm


Huge fire, firefighters 'down' too, this is bad.

Firefighters injured, huge fire.

golden needle
May 16, 2020 - 10:41pm
May 16, 2020 - 10:38pm


I've listened to this twice and also cant stop chuckling.

thank you

May 16, 2020 - 10:38pm

Wallbridge/Balmoral arb suggestion

I also sold Wallbridge on that same day March 3, at CAD$0.80 but fewer shares 5,300 not 6,000. To buy my 10,000 Balmoral at CAD$0.475 I had to kick in just over $500.

Along those lines of member suggestions I'm still trying to recall if it was you who mentioned in June 2019 that KGC $5 calls for Jan 2021 looked like a steal at under 50 cents. I bought way more than I usually do and they are now ahead over 400% and still rising most weeks.

May 16, 2020 - 10:25pm


Do not trust equity holdings in a bank, or you risk bail-ins. It's a no-brainer

Fidelity is the largest independent brokerage. By most accounts Fidelity is the safest. Any institution that is deemed a bank is subject to bail-ins. Fidelity is not subject to bail-ins as it is a brokerage. I believe this is true for Schwab also, but someone should check me on that. All of the banks who also act as brokerages are subject to bail-ins...Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, etc. For example, your equities held at Wells Fargo would be in jeopardy if Wells Fargo was failing. Brokerages which are not banks hold your equities in trusts in your name and those holdings are 100% yours even if the brokerage would go under for whatever reason. I would never have a brokerage account with any entity subject to bail-ins. That would be as stupid as it gets.

May 16, 2020 - 10:07pm

Shit fire and save matches kiddies; Nucky Munchkin came thru

That $2,400 buys 1 oz of AG, a nice donation to Salvation Army food bank and a dinner with wifey now that eateries are mostly open for site down.

I'll frame the check and dedicate as the last thing of value we'll receive at this, The End Of The Great Keynesian Experiment, (TEOTGKE)

There are some means to remove the investments from confiscation. Retirement accounts are subject to confiscation/seizure/forced reinvestment in government mandated pools.

The IRS and USG can gate the IRAs of various brokerages. This was done at least 12 times in G20 countries over the last 10 years. The Ghillarduci Gambit passed by Pelosi's crew and the Senate around 2008-9 ushered in government mandated pools set up for IRAs. Back then there was $10 trillion in US retirement funds. Now there's $21 trillion or so. That is too rich a pool for government to avoid temptation.

I moved my 401k into a SDIRA with help of Jeff Berwick's Dollar Vigilante. It was dicey at first but now commonplace. Precious metal SDIRA have special qualities and requirements. It must be under custodial care and use of a Fiduciary to report on investment types and count of coin and bar. It's near impossible to confiscate because AU is so dang portable.

Ways to hold PM SDIRAs were a gray area. Bullion bank, safe deposit box or home vault? IRS was vague. I drove an 18 wheeler filled with PM through 'vague' IRS rules and, being mindful of Doc's Maxim, if you won't hold it you don't own it. I held and still do. Playing nicey nice with IRS ? I've never has the tiniest bit of problem. Hiding in plain sight works.

The great thing about an SDIRA in PMs is that they can be reallocated and reinvested in anything that is regarded as an investment asset. Just as paper investments in a brokerage IRA can be moved from one type to another, the same can be done with the holdings of an SDIRA

That 1,000 acre parcel purchased with proceeds of PMs sold under the governing rules of an SDIRA would meet standards of an income producing piece of RE with cash from alfalfa acreage leasing, fishing and hunting rights, timber harvesting and anything else that might make income.

The gold in my SDIRA at $20,000 an ounce, not an impossible level, would be more than adequate to buy a low 7 figure plot of land.

Additionally I asked my CPA to check into that like kind 1031 loophole. There may be one but if not I can McGyver my own loophole to circumvent strict reading of 1031 for a purchase like this.

Back in the day around 10 years ago gold and silver could not be swapped without tax consideration. Sell gold, a bullion metal and you have to report it. 1099's were commonplace. Buying AG with the proceeds is considered a purchase of an industrial metal. Not like kind

Around 8 years ago when Andy Schectman was flogging gold to silver trades on Miles Franklin afte the ratio ramped to 65 to 1 I called Andy to question the accuracy of his statement that these 'trades' were 1031 compliant.

Andy does not suffer fools gladly and cuffed me soundly for my impertinence, correcting my assumptions. He was right.

Since then any trades from AU to AG are paperless exchanges without IRS involvement. It makes those trades I mentioned a nice way to move from one metal to another.

Once my CPA gives me the final word I'll post it

If forced to abide by the letter of the law where real estate is clearly defined, I'll build a tiny house from silver filled ammo cans; declare it mi casa. I'll open my bindle, unroll my swag and fire up the tilly to prove point. Mi casa, ready for 1031 exchange. Tell me otherwise.

Mask types. Mine is N 45 with 2 extra filters.

May 16, 2020 - 9:45pm

Blackstone shale oil venture Gavilan Resources files bankruptcy

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Blackstone Group's (N:BX) Gavilan Resources LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy late on Friday, citing this year's oil price collapse and a bitter legal battle with a partner. Formed following the $2.3 billion acquisition of Texas shale oil properties in 2017, Gavilan listed secured debt of more than $550 million in its filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Houston.

It plans to sell its assets, according to the filing. It has hired investment banker Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) Freres & Co and named attorneys Weil, Gotshal & Manges and Vinson & Elkins as bankruptcy advisers. Oil prices this year are off more than 60%, hurt by a collapse in demand for fuels due to coronavirus-related lockdowns and a market glut spurred by shale and a battle for market share among the world's top producers.


Texas Sandman
May 16, 2020 - 9:32pm

when to sell silver...

you might THINK about it when there is a line in front of the LCS a block or more long to BUY.

Otherwise fuggedaboutit.

May 16, 2020 - 9:29pm


I realize that this weekend thread is not given to serious metals discussion, but does anyone have any idea as to why Couer D'Alene (CDE) jumped 17% on Friday? I have held a stash for more than eight months and have finally seen a positive return. It's a stock I have been in and out of for 20 years or so. But I can find no news that would have generated Friday's jump.

May 16, 2020 - 9:27pm

Thank's Arlo...

...Let's hope Alice's Restaurant survives the Plandemic economic scarcity agenda...

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
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4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

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