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TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 15


It was a great end to a great week where the old TFMR adage is proven yet again. To celebrate, I thought we should make this podcast immediately public in the hope that more people will choose to come along with us on this ride.

We are in the early stages of what will be the greatest precious metal bull market you are likely to see in your lifetime. To profit from this...and to secure your future...I urge you to consider a membership to TFMR. Its only $12/month and, this weekend only, we're running a discount due to the uncertain economic times.

And just so you know, it's not like we just stumbled upon this last week. Here are links to our two most recent annual forecasts. Please take a look. You'll see that we're clearly onto something and ahead of the curve in terms of analysis:

So, if you'd like to join us, just go to this link: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe. Once there, select the monthly subscription option and then enter the coupon code "GOLD". This will save you $6 on your first month but every dollar counts at a time like this. I hope you'll join us. You'll find that the regular $12/month cost can be made up pretty quickly through the information we share here.

For today, just a lengthy general discussion followed by a mention of this story that broke right after the NYSE close: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-warns-stocks-face-significant-decl...

From there, we begin with these screenshots:

Next, we discuss Comex gold and silver and the persistent premiums/spreads versus spot:

Next, we check the daily and weekly charts of the mining shares:

And we close the week as we always do, with a look at your latest CoTs...which remain the most"bullish" since late June of last year.

Again, I hope non-members of TFMR will take the time to join us. You can bump along doing your own thing OR you can spend 40¢/day to learn A LOT about the precious metals and mining shares and then put that knowledge to use.

Have a great weekend, everyone!



May 17, 2020 - 12:56pm


Check it out:

The National Debt Clock Is Flashing A Major Red Alert!


May 17, 2020 - 12:39pm

The weird part of that equation Scoremore, is to adjust price

to reflect the value of the 1 ounce AGE or 1 ounce ASE. AGE is $20 ASE $1 I also have maybe 400 Morgans, half of which range from slabs to low end MS None are really valuable I could convert that to trade bait. If the land price is adjust to the old school real money printed on the face of AGE, ASE and Morgans--or even Pesos. this might sneak the deal past the tax goons

This could all work out but Montana Mel did warn that the range is a few degrees about the danger zone Elko is latitude 40, around 4 degrees above the line where the Grand Solar Minimum will be heavily hit by the Dawson Minimum that is coming our way

It's more likely that the focus would shift much farther south, below 35 degrees to avoid the worst of the GSM. Nothing will grow at 40 and above when global temps and US farm land see a 3-4 degree drop.

May 17, 2020 - 12:35pm

PC -- Oliver

Could you remind his full name? Perhaps I can find a twitter or quotes elsewhere.

Thank you

May 17, 2020 - 12:31pm

Use GAEs

In discussions of the Weimar hyperinflation, I see analyses of the gold mark:paper mark ratio. Perhaps there will be a gold dollar:paper dollar ratio.

May 17, 2020 - 12:30pm

Oliver paid subscription

Its from his weekly letter on his paid subscription, so I can unfortunately only quote him.

But I can highly recommend his service. He covers all major markets, and has an uncanny track-record in identifying trend-break points. He predicted the recent S&P500 crash way before corona, and supplied precise trigger points where one should go short. I made a bundle by shorting at the right moments, which paid for many year subscription :-)

May 17, 2020 - 12:27pm


I got the Jan 21 $5 calls on 06/25/19 at $0.48 per share so it likely was your suggestion, so thanks. I've held mine. Lately though I've been selling a small number of puts weekly, rolling them out for 4 weeks hoping to collect the entire premium. At around $0.50 on a $7 put while KGC was tracking around $7 the worst that could happen is you'd get put for a cost of $6.50 and more often you'd pick up all or most of the premium.

May 17, 2020 - 11:55am

Not sure you want to use GAE's to buy Real Estate...

Do you want to use each of these as "50 DOLLARS" ?

May 17, 2020 - 11:39am

No sense in hiring a lawyer, CA or not, Jaba but I got this ding

leberry thought that maybe I should prestage my PM SDIRA(wifey has her own) with more ASE and C Silver Maples. Of which I have shitloads.

If AG ramps 200% higher than gold, particularly after reading Von Greyerz summation of dollar/currency collapse pushing gold to $20,000 and AG to $1,660 (yes, that is what EVG speculated--a 100 fold increase in AG and 10 X gold price rise) then the Lawson Ranch at 3000 acres and $7,500,000 becomes a more likely target for the new idaho. It could happen.

Some of those juniors y'all invest in are 10 baggers easy peazy. Sprott wants to be a Decabillionaire and will be if AG and AU go up ten fold. If the schmuchalucks and chumbleys who bought into Amazon at $12 or Goofle and FaCIAbook at whatever price have seen 10,000% price appreciation for doing nothing but sitting tight, being right at the right place and the right time, there is nothing I see that would prevent 2 orders of magnitude price rise in juniors and maybe even same for AG.

Someone tell me I'm wrong and I will get off my high horse on this subject but I think it can happen and have thought so for 10 years.

The ranch gots the air strip for up to 12 planes plus a hige hanger, runs 600 head of cattle giving $1,000,000 plus annual income, 600 acres of hay for cattle fodder, and some really nice tourist/adventuring/hunting venues. Itt was once owned by Bing Crosby who bought it for a song--prolly White Christmas. But it ain't no Green Acres. Wifey likes it but she's a cattle gal from the Sand Hills of Nebraska so that's no surprise. Giddyap.

Only 75 minutes by air from Reno it's near Elko but not that near and it's water rights are world class. Need a pilot who is also handy on a horse.

Bing was a lot of things and being a tight wad and tough ass negotiator for his natural rights as a land owner, he owned 7 ranches in and around Elko. Whisky's for drinking; water's for fighting. He also owned part of the Del Mar race track. That was before NASCAR and Darlington runs today. right Tony?

If I moved some AU from my IRA and bought more SDIRA-compliant AG from personal stacks and I can get that son of bitch holding the AG to give me a better deal than an LCS with it's uber high premiums for ASE it makes sense to convert the AU for AG and let time, currency collapse and silver shortages run their course.

At $1,660 an ounce the Lawson Ranch figures in at around 4,500 ounces from the SDIRA. Xfer that to a family non-profit foundation. Excess income spun off to do something good for the world. I guess you could call the owners just temporary stewards of this land.

Doable and maybe another 500 ounces of walk around shiny to make sure everything flows smoothly, handle tips and tokes for the facilitators plus make sure the crew and ranch hands are well paid to keep the wheels on.

Anyhoo, the P&Ls, internal numbers and ROI once the ranch ASIC is met means the free cash flow pre-depreciation would make this a decent investment at $7,500,000. All cash buy means banksters got no say about nuthin' and the non-profit takes it off the property tax rolls. Maybe there is a church pastoral pasturage aspect that'd work too. That would be fine by me.

At B/E the tax considerations, farming/ranching depletion/depreciation allowances with give serious shelter to outside incomes on a non-foundation platform run as a private enterprise. As a non-profit foundation it's a better structure and would work in at least 3 dimensions of overall good works. The owners could hang out and enjoy the place without a lot of brain damage

Coming from someone who has an allergy to anything with handles like shovels and hoes; manual labor gives me the willies, this place really speaks to me. Frankly it got me a little teared up watching the video. I swear that was Sam Elliot doing the voice over. First class presentation.

Back to reality

If you can find ASE monster boxes they have $6-9 premiums.

I'm pretty sure I can get him to give me a real time transactional GTSR that's market based and not some ridiculous markup on his ASE and Maples for my AGEs. If that was the case I'd even move the shiny from one safe to another to make the exchange easier on the back and bank.

My only question is whether the 'sale' from a non-IRA stack to an IRA is just a simple paper-less transfer like I've been doing with my LCS or it's another thing that might get the attention of the IRS. It should be. Need to check with my CPA on that idea
CA Lawyer I'd bring you in on this transaction if it or anything like to comes to fruition. Do you take cash, silver or gold for payment?

May 17, 2020 - 11:21am


Could you please provide the link to Oliver?

Thank you.

May 17, 2020 - 11:18am

Well Fargo

Thanks Uni59 unlike 2013 I am a much better educated and have my investments spread across miners, physical metal, real estate with a small position still in the “traditional” market. I also am following the sage advice of selling some of my miner call options when everything looks great and buying on dips. There will be no 2013 repeat for me.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

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