Sponsored by

TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 15


It was a great end to a great week where the old TFMR adage is proven yet again. To celebrate, I thought we should make this podcast immediately public in the hope that more people will choose to come along with us on this ride.

We are in the early stages of what will be the greatest precious metal bull market you are likely to see in your lifetime. To profit from this...and to secure your future...I urge you to consider a membership to TFMR. Its only $12/month and, this weekend only, we're running a discount due to the uncertain economic times.

And just so you know, it's not like we just stumbled upon this last week. Here are links to our two most recent annual forecasts. Please take a look. You'll see that we're clearly onto something and ahead of the curve in terms of analysis:

So, if you'd like to join us, just go to this link: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe. Once there, select the monthly subscription option and then enter the coupon code "GOLD". This will save you $6 on your first month but every dollar counts at a time like this. I hope you'll join us. You'll find that the regular $12/month cost can be made up pretty quickly through the information we share here.

For today, just a lengthy general discussion followed by a mention of this story that broke right after the NYSE close: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-warns-stocks-face-significant-decl...

From there, we begin with these screenshots:

Next, we discuss Comex gold and silver and the persistent premiums/spreads versus spot:

Next, we check the daily and weekly charts of the mining shares:

And we close the week as we always do, with a look at your latest CoTs...which remain the most"bullish" since late June of last year.

Again, I hope non-members of TFMR will take the time to join us. You can bump along doing your own thing OR you can spend 40¢/day to learn A LOT about the precious metals and mining shares and then put that knowledge to use.

Have a great weekend, everyone!



May 16, 2020 - 8:17am

OI up again

Another 5,200 CDS and 4,100 CDG.

CDS OI now 146,400 contracts...still 100,000 below the ATHs of a few months ago but the highest since March 24. Note that date.

May 16, 2020 - 7:29am
May 16, 2020 - 6:37am

Britainnas / Masks

Hi. I have owned a M Box worth of Brits for around 10 years and they are in perfect condition. They are my favourite ahead of my ASE / Maples / Somalis.

In HK it is 100% masks and we all feel it is a big part of our amazing success - COVID wise anyway .Of course, quite ironic as the wearing of masks was briefly made illegal last year during the protests.

May 16, 2020 - 6:01am


Have quite a few. No issues. Since the premium rise only Ag I have bought are the 2 oz Queens Beasts. Provident has had those at around $40 US. Those are about the best deal I could find on sovereign Ag. After all these years of low prices, just find it hard to pay more than $20 an oz.

May 16, 2020 - 5:42am

Cognitive Sophistication

Welcome to Intellectual Mainstream Media passive aggressive cop-out extraordinaire!

The CBC put this doozy out today:



Experts say there are several reasons that account for skepticism about the pandemic, including:

  • Mounting frustration as shutdowns continue;
  • The breakdown of trust in government over issues such as changes in mask policy;
  • A resistance to being told what to do;
  • Gaps in a skill psychologists call cognitive sophistication, which helps people discern what's true or false.


But there's another reason why some people might believe unproven theories about the origins or spread of the virus or behave in ways that put them at risk, such as attending a protest at a time when health authorities are telling people not to congregate.

It relates to something psychologists call cognitive sophistication — or the ability to think rationally about an issue, says Gordon Pennycook, a psychologist and assistant professor at the University of Regina.

"It's not a basis of intelligence," Pennycook said of the term. "There are just some people who are just better at figuring out what's true or false."

There are many factors that come into play when discussing cognitive sophistication: how receptive you are to information presented to you; whether or not you question your intuition; how well you understand probabilities; and how knowledgeable you are about some of the underlying scientific principles.

"You can think about it as having a kind of mental toolbox that can be used to help discern between what's true and false in the world," said Pennycook, who wrote a 2015 paper on the ability to detect falsehoods.


Cognitive Sophistication...

This is an example of the preferred method for 'Intellectual' mainstream media publications to shunt controversy, promote the illusion of moderation and give the appearance of well-thought out arguments.

If, for example, the CBC came right out and said:

Gaps in a skill psychologists call 'being smart', which helps people discern what's true or false, is a leading cause of pandemic misinformation.

They would put themselves 'on the line' and have to face the consequences of their stance which is:

If you question what the CBC says about the pandemic, then you are STUPID!


May 16, 2020 - 5:24am

Silver Britannias, when to sell gold etc etc


I purchased some 1 oz and 2 oz Silver Britannias about 4 years back. No issues at all. I would have happily bought much more at lower prices recently but hate paying the tax in U.K. while gold is tax free.


I am very overweight gold at the moment.

Trading - long gold short term

Investing - gold miners medium to long term

Physical - long term

Since you ask specifically regarding physical i will address what my thoughts are for that.

For me i plan to hold maybe 30 - 50% indefinitely and pass on as inheritance if i never need it. For the rest i will consider the height of the next inflationary cycle when real interest rates are ramped up and any tightening of money supply looks sustainable to the end of my lifetime to end said cycle as a possible trigger ( i think a money reset would be necessary first though). Another trigger would be when another investment looks more favorable as gold nears the end of it's bull cycle and other investments end their bear cycles. Both of these triggers are long term strategies and i expect it to be some years away yet. With that in mind there will, no doubt, be other variables to consider at that time. Bottom line is you have plenty of time to think about that because this train is only just leaving the station IMHO.


Thanks for the good laugh i had right at the end of that podcast.

Now to watch those Raoul Pal videos that have been posted today and yesterday. Thanks. In recent months i have become a big fan of him. I think he has a great macro view. I remember him recently making a call on oil storage facilities ahead of the curve.

J Siefert
May 16, 2020 - 3:47am
May 16, 2020 - 3:16am

Michael Oliver on silver

Two weeks ago he said that if we were to trade to 15.20, and even better 15.50 we would see a powerful move higher. Last weekend he said that if we could close the week above 16.50 it would be off to the races. He said that he thinks silver will blast through old resistance at 18.50-19.50 without stopping. His first target is 30.

He also, some weeks ago, called for an impulsive move to 40 on GDX if we could trade to 32. This seems well on its way. First (but not final) target for him is 50 on GDX.

He is usually right in his calls.

Anyway, I doubled down on my XAG position just before the close Friday!

May 16, 2020 - 1:58am

More reviews welcomed....

Owners of Silver Britannia's....


and then this...

#QuestionOfTheDay Is it really living if you are forced to wear a mask?

— scoremore (@Scoremore_) May 16, 2020
May 16, 2020 - 12:00am

Insurance or legacy

My plan for my metals is to leave to my children or grandchildren. If I have to sell then it will be out of necessity. I view them as insurance against the excessive money creation and monetary debasement by our government and federal reserve. This is a pattern that has played out many times In history.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Recent Comments

by SquibLoad, 21 min 28 sec ago
by robobrewer, 24 min 42 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 31 min 24 sec ago
by Ollie, 41 min 4 sec ago