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TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 15

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It was a great end to a great week where the old TFMR adage is proven yet again. To celebrate, I thought we should make this podcast immediately public in the hope that more people will choose to come along with us on this ride.

We are in the early stages of what will be the greatest precious metal bull market you are likely to see in your lifetime. To profit from this...and to secure your future...I urge you to consider a membership to TFMR. Its only $12/month and, this weekend only, we're running a discount due to the uncertain economic times.

And just so you know, it's not like we just stumbled upon this last week. Here are links to our two most recent annual forecasts. Please take a look. You'll see that we're clearly onto something and ahead of the curve in terms of analysis:

So, if you'd like to join us, just go to this link: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe. Once there, select the monthly subscription option and then enter the coupon code "GOLD". This will save you $6 on your first month but every dollar counts at a time like this. I hope you'll join us. You'll find that the regular $12/month cost can be made up pretty quickly through the information we share here.

For today, just a lengthy general discussion followed by a mention of this story that broke right after the NYSE close: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-warns-stocks-face-significant-decl...

From there, we begin with these screenshots:

Next, we discuss Comex gold and silver and the persistent premiums/spreads versus spot:

Next, we check the daily and weekly charts of the mining shares:

And we close the week as we always do, with a look at your latest CoTs...which remain the most"bullish" since late June of last year.

Again, I hope non-members of TFMR will take the time to join us. You can bump along doing your own thing OR you can spend 40¢/day to learn A LOT about the precious metals and mining shares and then put that knowledge to use.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

TF

  215 Comments

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DeaconBenjaminTF
May 16, 2020 - 10:30am

If the Fed monetizes the debt

Does it have to be repaid?

billhilly
May 16, 2020 - 10:29am

Saturday smile...

...and still can't stop chuckling ! 6 minute story.

The Bricklayer's Lament - by Gerard Hoffnung
indiana rod
May 16, 2020 - 10:17am

The Break-Out Is On

I posted (bragged ) about buying 40 CDE Sept. 6 Calls for $600.00. Then later buying 40 more Jan. 10 CDE Calls for 19 cents. Yesterday the Sept. Calls were worth $2600.00. Not bad for 44 days.

Every indication that 'this time it's different' is here. Not only the classic head and shoulders pattern but also the similarity to 2009-2010, only this time much worse.

Amro folded, Scotia, in business since 1676, leaving the gold business. Bloomberg: HSBC lost almost $200 million in one day.

See Michael Oliver call above.

It's much worse this time.

Couer closed 2011 at $28.09 a share. I posted yesterday that should Couer's price be $16.00 by the 3rd Friday of September, my calls would be worth $40,000.

Should Couer close 2020 at $28.00 a share , my 40 Jan. calls would be worth.............

Island Teal
May 16, 2020 - 9:55am

Saturday morning

Good to see the talk about the metals on TFMR.

Have a good weekend 😊😊

crylandjr
May 16, 2020 - 9:55am

Gin and Tonic

I had one last night in Turds' honor. Only had half a pour left of Bombay Saphire so I threw in a little vodka...

silverseekerscoremore
May 16, 2020 - 9:18am

Silver Britannias

Hi scoremore,

For several years SDBullion has run 'random year' specials on various sovereign mint coins. Whenever they run the Britannia special I buy a few mint tubes worth, and I have several hundred ounces, almost all mixed dates in the mint tubes. I've not encountered a single coin with any issues, they are an excellent quality coin. I actually prefer the mixed date tubes as I am less worried about handling, and the Britannia design has evolved over the years, making the random stack more interesting.

My favorite Silver rounds remain Chris Duane's Silver Bullet Silver Shield - Heidi Wastweet sculptured designs. The two ounce 2014 'Never Trust Government' design and the original 'Debt and Death', 'Trivium', and 'Slave Queens' are a few I believe will go down in history as very important coins, proving that not all people were fooled and deluded by the mirage of central bank prosperity.

canary
May 16, 2020 - 9:13am

The shakeout (orchestrated) in March

In gold...The bullion banks failed to cove short positions.

In silver...The banks succeeded.

In mining shares...The manipulators covered short positions (total washout)... and likely went long.

OllieNoteriety
May 16, 2020 - 8:39am

Noteriety - Good Call

Noeteriety,

the CBC article that you pointed out is simply glorious. A doozy is right.

Nicole Mortillaro's piece is just classic weasel word abuse -- with the appeal to authority fallacy and buzzword bingo thrown in for good measure. The number of times that she resorted to "some say", or the tried-and-true "experts say", in an article of this size is impressive.

One really terrifying thing to note, though, is that she is the editor of the Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada. The editor.

4 oz
May 16, 2020 - 8:30am

'Sell in May and Go Away"

Coolest thing about the spot prices right now:

Lot of metal standing for delivery these days. Supply and demand might actually mean something and FOMO just getting started. Like Mr Turk said Thursday, spot price for physical is really just a, 'we'll buy it from you for this much' suggestion.... but the coolest thing about the spot prices right now is we have entered into weakest time seasonally for PM's and now half way through May, similar to June last year......where we should see weakness --we are looking at price strength.

ilikerocks2
May 16, 2020 - 8:24am

when to sell

This is always an entirely personal question.

The key thing to remember is that when you sell, you are by definition converting your metal back into some other form of money. So, to that end, I don't plan to sell for a long time as I have no desire to convert my metal back into dollars....at least not as currently constituted.

There are other options, of course. Perhaps you sell and then immediately use the dollars to acquire some other hard asset like land. And you might always run into some other investment opportunity that requires a shift of metal into dollars.

But in terms of price, I have no "target". People always ask me what the "fair" price of gold and/or silver is. My answer for ten years has always been the same. "I don't know." Why? Because I have no idea how much actual gold (and silver) there is in the world with clear, clean provenance and title. And if you don't know the denominator...the /oz part...then how can you know the price/oz?

Anyway, thanks for being a longtime member. Glad to have helped over the years.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
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5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
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Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
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Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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