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TFMR Podcast - Friday, May 15


It was a great end to a great week where the old TFMR adage is proven yet again. To celebrate, I thought we should make this podcast immediately public in the hope that more people will choose to come along with us on this ride.

We are in the early stages of what will be the greatest precious metal bull market you are likely to see in your lifetime. To profit from this...and to secure your future...I urge you to consider a membership to TFMR. Its only $12/month and, this weekend only, we're running a discount due to the uncertain economic times.

And just so you know, it's not like we just stumbled upon this last week. Here are links to our two most recent annual forecasts. Please take a look. You'll see that we're clearly onto something and ahead of the curve in terms of analysis:

So, if you'd like to join us, just go to this link: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe. Once there, select the monthly subscription option and then enter the coupon code "GOLD". This will save you $6 on your first month but every dollar counts at a time like this. I hope you'll join us. You'll find that the regular $12/month cost can be made up pretty quickly through the information we share here.

For today, just a lengthy general discussion followed by a mention of this story that broke right after the NYSE close: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-warns-stocks-face-significant-decl...

From there, we begin with these screenshots:

Next, we discuss Comex gold and silver and the persistent premiums/spreads versus spot:

Next, we check the daily and weekly charts of the mining shares:

And we close the week as we always do, with a look at your latest CoTs...which remain the most"bullish" since late June of last year.

Again, I hope non-members of TFMR will take the time to join us. You can bump along doing your own thing OR you can spend 40¢/day to learn A LOT about the precious metals and mining shares and then put that knowledge to use.

Have a great weekend, everyone!



May 16, 2020 - 11:20am

To those who may be new here...

...if you are considering a subscription here, I HIGHLY recommend it ! If you are new to the Precious Metals market (take notice, they are called "Precious" metals for a very good reason), or someone who has studied/collected/traded "real money" for many years, you have come upon a site here that is the finest in its class.

In these vault pages you will find the deepest and most comprehensive of PM analysis. The insights offered here, by our gifted host AND the wise members which engage these pages, are truly remarkable. These insights, while predominated by PM commentary, are not limited to strictly Gold and Silver. Here, we also discuss the greater political/financial/economic world in which we live. This is an important element of the community, dare I say family, that has grown up here as these topics are vital to the understanding of the entire system, rather than just singularly focused on the metals.

The mainline articles are vital to gaining an understanding of the inner workings of the PM market(s). The interviews offered by Craig, another grand bonus of subscription, are also top notch and gift us added perspective from those with incomparable insights. Yet, it is the member commentary that is the hidden gem of TFMR, as each one brings a personal viewpoint that helps all of us to expand our own knowledge base and even challenge our personal mindsets. I have learned, and re-learned, so many things through the fine contributors here that I could not imagine where I'd be without this place.

Finally, please note, this is a gathering place of the highest caliber. It is with respect and kindness that we interact with one another. Like a family gathering at Thanksgiving, we speak openly and with honesty. Sometimes we disagree but it is through these disagreements that growth occurs. We kid one another, we debate, we share intimacies. We confide sorrows and accomplishments; we offer humor and consolation where needed; we support each others ideas and dreams; and we do it all with the goal of speaking and living Truth.

This is the essence of "family". This is what we are here, FAMILY. For a measly 12 $ a month (10 if you subscribe annually) you gain access to a group of the finest, most upstanding, folks around. You cannot go wrong giving us a try.

Remember, "price" is what you pay, "value" is what you receive. Here, at TFMR, you will find the greatest value anywhere on the web...imho.

Hope to see you around the pages.

May 16, 2020 - 11:17am
May 16, 2020 - 11:00am


The notion of direct debt monetization is that a nation that owes debts in its own fiat can simply print the fiat to pay the debt. The involvement of the FED in monetization makes the process only slightly less direct and creates, for a while, a plausible deniability that the debt is being monetized at all. The notion there is that a central bank, working in cahoots with the sovereign, can create fiat to purchase the sovereign debt. So long as the government ultimately pays it back, the debt isn't monetized. Hence, the plausible deniability. But if, as clearly will happen here, the FED balance sheet never shrinks and only grows as the sovereign borrows more new printed money to 'pay off' the old debt, the debt is monetized. In either process, the powers that be have created fiat out of nothing to fund government borrowing which will never be repaid.

Gasivs ButtoxJughead
May 16, 2020 - 10:55am

Confiscation by taxation

Yes, it's possible.... but so is almost anything when you witness the insanity that is taking place today in the banking system.

If we are to look back to 1933, the confiscation wasn't truly a confiscation. It became illegal to own gold bullion but you were paid for every ounce you surrendered to the government (I know, I know.... at full price but really at about 65 cents on the dollar.) But you could own collectible coins, jewelry AND MINERS.

There were also people who couldn't find their stash because they couldn't remember where they buried it or were unable to retrieve it from the bottom of a nearby lake. If by some amazing circumstance they were able to retrieve it and they really needed to turn some of it into fiat, they would need a friend somewhere else in the world who could handle the transaction for them. That involved considerable risk. Today, you don't need to do that if you hold your bullion off shore. Sprott could make some good suggestions just where that might be.

In Canada, you can't buy gold bullion without giving the seller your driver's license and proof of identity. Same thing when you sell it. If gold goes up in the interim, guess who is holding their hand out for their share?

So the right answer (I think), is yes.... and no. It all depends on how you buy and hold it.

edit ps. FDR didn't confiscate silver but that could be subject to change. I also collect junk silver and know that it's tax free and always readily negotiable.

May 16, 2020 - 10:52am

if I remember correctly...

I think there is "privacy" with minted coins ...not to be confused with rounds.

a minted coin is also "legal tender" and your money is NOT taxed when the value fluctuates ...but, it has been a long time since I've had any and as always consult your 'tax advisor'

May 16, 2020 - 10:52am

For all the Karen’s...

I Wear My Face Mask in the Car
May 16, 2020 - 10:49am

Wells Fargo

I rarely post but I’ve been around since before the paywall went up. Congrats to all who lost there shirts in 2013 (like me ) and stayed the course....with no small amount of help from Craig and this site.

Anyone thinking about joining....stop thinking and do it now best money I spend every month.

Question for the community.

I have a large self directed IRA from my prior company at Wells Fargo. While I know all banks are suspect when SHTF this one looks really vulnerable.

I am DMODD this weekend but would love to hear anyone’s thoughts/opinions on the “safest” place to park this account. I have a huge stack outside system so I am not looking for a Gold IRA, need a trading account.

I trade often and was thinking about Schwab but any feedback would be appreciate.


AGXIIKIsland Teal
May 16, 2020 - 10:44am

Stupid crazy numbers. Bombay Gin. Cog. Sophistry

Talking with a fellow Reno stacker I showed him that his gold had risen to $1,742 per oz but silver was still dogging it at $16.71. He'd been wondering why I was trading substantial dollar values of gold for silver.

I suggested that silver would have a better run in the near term. Gold is 91% of its April 2011 highs. Silver is only 33% of its April 2011 high. Which metal would likely move up to its high of 10 years ago?

He has both both and silver but likes silver more. The logic of that basic statement had him rethink the trade and move forward.
As for me I've been very happy to make that trade. Many others seem to think so too.

Northern NV Coin is now so heavy with gold from people selling at near the historic highs as well as trading for silver that instead of offering spot plus $10 for Kruggers in these trades, they moved to spot -$5. That still worked because the GTSR was holding at 104 to 1. Yesterday they moved to AU spot -$17 but still had boxes of freshly minted Liberty Buffaloes for sale at spot plus $2.60. It's still an attractive trade for those who think silver will move up possibly twice as fast as gold prices.

Once certain price equilibriums are hit it might be time to sell some shiny for other desireable assets. That day will come but not tomorrow.

I'd like to buy a 1,000 acre parcel of land east of Fallon, complete with a stream, small lake, shooting range, flat spot for a residence, maybe a small mine, an air strip, bottom land for alfalfa crops, some open range for a few cows, a few hundred acres of trees and well off the highway. My time to convert would be somewhere around silver $150-200 an ounce, doing a 1031 trade with the seller. There's a stack set aside for this purchase. The jet can wait. I did get wifey convinced that flying on a private plane or jet to destinations would be preferable to commercial travel where we'd be run through a delousing station to board the jet.

One might think this is chasing price or being a bit overwrought that the prior trades were the new standard and this trade yesterday was not advantageous. But actually it's not. GTSR is still 104 to 1, a crazy ridiculous ratio. IMO any trade where GTSR is triple digits is advantage to the home court.

When one realizes gold has to rise 9% to hit its historic highs yet silver must triple to do the same, my thinking is these trades are still solid.

As for Cognitive Sophistication I call it Cognitive Sophistry. Or better yet, closer to how comedian and satirist Mort Sahl described Transcendental Meditation: A bearded hairy little basturd talking above your head while putting the bite on your wallet.

I also like the wisdom of Phineas Freak. Silver will get you through times of no gin better than gin will get you through times of no silver

But life will not seem worth living.

While you get yersef' some silver git some gin. Where do you git gin? At the gin gittin' place. I like Costco or Total Wines. Memo to self. Drink some gin tonight.

Stay strong

The feeling of hopelessness only serves your masters. They read the Constitution, looking for loop holes. Best way to get under their skin? Blow out their candle and let them curse the darkness while you laugh your ass off. (cribbed from the best of Mort)

May 16, 2020 - 10:33am

The back story...

Probably the best-known example of Hoffnung as a humorous speaker is an account of a bricklayer's misfortunes when raising some bricks in a barrel to the top of a building. It was part of a speech to the Oxford Union on 4 December 1958.[12] The derivation of the story is confused, but it first arises in the 1930s. It was published in Reader's Digest in 1940 as a letter from a naval officer who had supposedly received it from an enlisted man explaining his late return from leave. Hoffnung first saw the story in The Manchester Guardian in 1957;[13] the version printed there is identical with the text used by Hoffnung, except for the location, which he changed from Barbados to Golders Green. Hoffnung used the piece to warm up the audience before each recording session of One Minute, Please. In these performances he perfected the timing before the Oxford Union speech. The story was part of his speech in a debate called Life Begins at 38 and was recorded by the BBC.[2] The tale itself was not, Ingrams comments, especially funny, but "[Hoffnung's] manner and delivery reduced his audience to hysterics"

May 16, 2020 - 10:32am

A fair question for Craig.....and others...

....I’ve posted this question on other sites....and always got “crickets”.....

.......Assuming when gold/silver get the valuations we hope for....the discussion of confiscation always reappears....yes..no...only numismatic will survive, etc......

The other that seems to persist and I personally agree with....is that a windfall profits tax will emerge...we can live, I guess, with something reasonable....but if it’s 60...70...90%...numbers that are confiscatory.....there won’t be enough gin and tonics that will enable me to swallow that abomination...

.....anyone got ideas for circumventing such a scenario...?

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10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
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