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Thursday Conversation - Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders

41

These are crazy times and if you're attempting to make some fiat via trading, you need all the help you can get. To that end, it was great to get acquainted today with Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders.

If you're not familiar with Chris' work and his service, you can find all that you need to know by visiting his website: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com

Over the course of this call, I ask Chris to discuss:

  • His methods and strategies for identifying trading opportunities
  • The discipline he applies in finding a trade, sticking with it or taking profits
  • His current "Best Asset Now" and why

But there's a whole lot in between, too, so please take time to give this podcast a thorough listen. You're certain to learn something new.

Many thanks to Chris for sharing his valuable time today.

TF

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KMAC
May 7, 2020 - 10:49am

FNV

I have been watching all the miners as they report. Almost all are reporting very good earnings and some are increasing dividends. FNV had good numbers with another dividend increase. Yet, it is down this morning. I am beginning to believe that there is a single entity or a group (FED,JPM,BOA,GS etc) that are making sure gold miners do not show a nice pop. I can only assume there motivation is the same as always, dollar and S&P first. Gold and miners are a threat to the power of the dollar. Protect the dollar at all cost. That means do whatever it takes including rig the miners to not appear as a viable investment. All this debt that they have created could be used to do just that. Short miners just as they appear to be breaking out to cap the ralley. Are these guys capable of cheating in this manner? I would answer they lie about everything already, what is another cheat matter to them.

AGXIIKOceanX
May 7, 2020 - 10:40am

I nominate Ernest Hemingway to be the FRB Chairman

At least we'd know how that novel ends.

When the government consumes more of the economy than we produce the end is imminent, even instantaneous, when people see the scam for what it is. And those words don't express even 1/1000th of that grim reality

OceanXAGXIIK
May 7, 2020 - 10:23am

interest...

It is exactly the interest that destroys debt based currency.

only way to create currency is out of debt. A loan is principle + interest. taking a loan, creates the principle but NOT the interest! from where does the interest come? This is the most insidious, often overlooked detail, of the debt base monetary system. the interest must be extracted from the next loan, in order to service existing debt. And that is precisely why, when credit stops, collapse is immediate!

AGXIIKOceanX
May 7, 2020 - 8:51am

I'd forgotten about the inflection point and interest on debt

The interest on the debt is another factor that spirals out of control. Like a family that handles their budget with debt piled on more debt and much of it used to pay the interest on the debt, we're doing the same thing.

If the national debt hits $30 trillion by October 2020 I'd guess at the blended interest at 2.5% or $750 billion interest a year. The interest rate on the majority of debt pre-Trump presidency was financed before the huge drop in UST rates. $750 billion the same as the DOD or SS budgets. Staggering.

As the old debt with its higher rates rolls over to lower rates the increase in national debt in still moving faster than the drop in rates. There's one inflection point.

The rate of debt increase is faster than the speed of interest rate decrease thus causing a spiraling out of control to the cost of this debt.

Exponential functions work on that part of the national debt just as the increase is also out of control.

QE to Infinity works side by side with QE to Insanity. No one cares one damn bit in Congress.

My only question is at what point our government dole will be delivered by wheel barrow or Amazon drone. There's a flat area on the back lawn that's perfect for a nice Cargo Cult Cash air drop. All I need is a big red X to mark the spot

Wake me up when the interest on the debt hits $1 trillion a year

May 7, 2020 - 8:42am

FNV earnings from late yesterday

VERY solid.

58¢ vs 55¢ exp.

Another dividend increase. That makes it 13 consecutive quarters with a dividend increase.

https://www.barchart.com/story/stocks/quotes/FNV/news/4837113/franco-nev...

May 7, 2020 - 8:39am
OceanXAGXIIK
May 7, 2020 - 8:26am

to infinity and beyond!

the debt is just getting started, we have hit the 'inflection point' the currency creation is burning out of control. As the new currency moves into physical assets, there is none left to service the debt. consequently, more debt is the only way to create more currency, a self-destructive feedback loop with no exit. anything not 'nailed down' will be scooped up with the 'new currency' ...speaking of nails, when the homesteaders were ready to move on, they burned their homes and raked through the ashes to collect all of their nails: real labor, to procure real assets.

Marcus
May 7, 2020 - 8:16am

Max & Craig

Keiser Report | An Exercise in Poor Taste | E1537

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pc
May 7, 2020 - 2:07am

Rick Rule nailed it

He always told us that in a PM bull market, first goes gold, then the major miners, then the juniors and last go silver and exploration companies. But silver junior miners goes the furthest. So nothing surprising here.

AGXIIKDeaconBenjamin
May 7, 2020 - 12:43am

I appreciate the consistency of the Thaler derivatives Deacon

The Spanish really had it right when it came to silver.

Not that I know a lot about 150-200 year old coins outside the Morgans going back to the late 1800's. A person can easily get lost in those realms.

For a while there I developed a real appreciation for Morgans when a friend who needed money sold me a nearly complete Morgan book. Missing were the really expensive 5 coins that cost from a nice car to a nice home so those slots remain unfilled.

A couple of people on TFMR opened up their vaults and sold me a few hundred decent quality Morgans from the 1883 to the late 1890's Here and there I picked up few more along the way. Around 100 were basically VG or VF slabs so I put them in my poker set as gambling tokens.

Everything else is bags of Constitutional silver--nothing collectible and a couple hundred really nice gradable Kennedy halves. Too much cost to grade them but they are one of my favorites for many reasons. Going further back in history looked pretty expensive so I stopped buying the numis and shifted back to bullion

Wolf Richter's article published an hour ago gives a dizzying array of deficit spending measures that total $2.7 trillion. No one is even pretending anymore that these increases in debt mean something.

Tax revenues are crashing will likely will leave us with a federal deficit of $3.6 trillion by FYE 2020, only 5 months from now. Figure another $4.0 trillion added to the $2.0 trillion since the start of the 2020 fiscal period and I see $6 trillion by year end. That's $4 trillion more in 5 months. It could happen. We only need another trillion to round it out to $30 T

And if the USG bails out the states for $1 trillion, not enough IMO, but still that's another trillion to the stack. We could see $30 trillion by end of fiscal 2020. That would be $7 trillion total deficit.

I remember the good old days when Bush bumped the debt $500 billion a year. Then Obama bumped it $1 trillion a year. We went from $5 trillion to $20 trillion in 16 years. Now we see maybe $9-10 trillion in 3 years.

We could see almost the entire Obama increase in the national debt or almost twice the Bush national debt increase in just one year.

A trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you're talking real money. This really makes me queasy and being a former banker I know one thing

Debt kills

I think I might get some more silver tomorrow

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