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Thursday Conversation - Chris Martenson

Managing risk in a post-virus world.

74

In late January, our friend Chris Martenson stopped by to warn us all of the pending dangers of some new coronavirus that had just recently shown person-to-person transmission. And aren't we lucky he did! With containment efforts now in full force, Chris returns today to begin discussing the way out.

First of all, if you never had a chance to listen to the podcast from Saturday, January 25, you should do so now. Unfortunately, the warnings Chris gave us that day turned out to be quite prescient. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9904/special-podcast-discussing-c...

But now it's April 9 and soon the conversation will turn from mediation to "getting things back to normal". In order to get ahead of this, the question of just how soon a return might happen needs to be considered now. Thus this podcast. Over the course of the call, Chris and I discuss:

  • At this stage of the crisis, what are steps you should be taking in preparation for the months ahead?
  • The extreme importance of thorough and trustworthy data regarding fatality rate, infection rate, therapeutic treatments and the most likely co-morbidities.
  • The holes in my argument regarding the risks of returning to everyday life. Namely, the total pool of people living with possible co-morbidities is much larger than I had considered.
  • The possible therapeutic benefit of a couple gin-and-tonics!

I think you'll find this discussion to be quite helpful in orienting your mind around "where do we go from here?". Over the course of the holiday weekend, please carve out some time to give it a thorough listen.

TF

  74 Comments

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ratioarbitrage
Apr 10, 2020 - 4:13am

An unwelcome comparison

HISTORY

1) 19.47 on Jul 15, 2008 to 10.22 on Sep 11, 2008 = 7 weeks (-47.5%)

2) 10.22 on Sep 11, 2008 to 13.79 on Sep 25, 2008 = 2 weeks (+35%)

Media reports of physical metal shortages.

3) 13.79 on Sep 25, 2008 to 8.45 on Oct 28, 2008 = 4 weeks (-38.5%).

Bottom.

PRESENT

1) 18.94 on Feb 24, 2020 to 11.64 on Mar 18, 2020 = 4 weeks (-38.5%)

2) 11.64 on Mar 18, 2020 to 15.58 on Apr 9, 2020 = 3 weeks (+34%)

Commercial signal failures and shortages reported.

3) [future]

Points:

1) The 2020 series shows about 20% less volatility than the 2008 series.

2) So far the pattern appears to be matching.

3) Human behaviour in 2020, which determines prices is probably similar to what it was in 2008.

4) 2020 is not 2008 and Covid is not Lehman.

5) Things do not have to be identical to rhyme.

stealthbeartonym9
Apr 10, 2020 - 12:36am

Agree wholeheartedly

A thousand hat tips!

valvend
Apr 10, 2020 - 12:13am

Garden planted.

I planted a garden & bought groceries & masks because of Chris Martenson forecast.

miggun
Apr 9, 2020 - 11:50pm

JNUG

TONYM9

Did you know that JNUG will split 1 for 10 on 4-22-20. How is this going to effect your holding and do you think the price will keep going up?

I want to buy some but put it off for the last 3 days and it went from $4.90 to $6.09. I think i messed up. Don't have much to put in it now as i'm just like the rest of you that has taken an ass whooping the last few years.

Allen

whiteclw57
Apr 9, 2020 - 11:45pm

Re the return engagement at PeakProsperity

Chris said the link would go up sometime tomorrow.

canary
Apr 9, 2020 - 10:54pm

Poor Kitco

Even Jeff Christian has no love for it....because it promotes the "gold manipulation element".

tonym9
Apr 9, 2020 - 10:52pm

Geez I love reading these

Geez I love reading these pages.

Chris giving a great podcast (thanks TF), a new recipe altho I was never a fan of tonic water i will be buying some, LBJ, personal stories of 64, life lessons.

You guys rock.

and my white rum and rootbeer tastes good. 2 shots and 16 oz's...tonight i will sleep.

Here's to ya...

DeaconBenjamin
Apr 9, 2020 - 10:49pm

Japan Pays Firms To Leave China, Relocate Production

Japan has earmarked hundreds of billions of yen of its coronavirus stimulus relief to go toward helping its manufacturing companies move their production plants out of communist China and back to Japan or to other countries. “The extra budget, compiled to try to offset the devastating effects of the pandemic, includes 220 billion yen (US$2 billion) for companies shifting production back to Japan and 23.5 billion yen for those seeking to move production to other countries, according to details of the plan posted online,” Bloomberg News reported. “That has renewed talk of Japanese firms reducing their reliance on China as a manufacturing base. The government’s panel on future investment last month discussed the need for manufacturing of high-added value products to be shifted back to Japan, and for production of other goods to be diversified across Southeast Asia.”

The move comes after communist China lied to the world about the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in their country and tried to cover it up, which led to the outbreak spreading like wildfire throughout China and eventually the rest of the world. “China is Japan’s biggest trading partner under normal circumstances, but imports from China slumped by almost half in February as the disease closed factories, in turn starving Japanese manufacturers of necessary components,” Bloomberg News added. “Japan exports a far larger share of parts and partially finished goods to China than other major industrial nations, according to data compiled for the panel. A February survey by Tokyo Shoko Research found 37 per cent of the more than 2,600 companies that responded were diversifying procurement to places other than China amid the coronavirus crisis.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/it-begins-japan-pays-billions-to-firms-to...

DeaconBenjaminSpartacus Rex
Apr 9, 2020 - 10:37pm

Thank you

It was LBJ debasing the silver coinage held and spent by US citizens, and not Nixon closing the door to foreign central banks buying US gold, that created the fiat inflation.

tonym9
Apr 9, 2020 - 10:28pm

AGXIIK

AGXIIK

Damn I love your writing style.

I drink a rum and rootbeer in your honor tonight.

May all read what AGXIIK has written above and take it to heart.

The above missive is loaded with life lessons that all should learn and pass to others, especially the younglings. They are woefully without guide and lost in a sea of tumult.

Well done Sir, well done.

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