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Thursday Conversation - Chris Martenson

Managing risk in a post-virus world.


In late January, our friend Chris Martenson stopped by to warn us all of the pending dangers of some new coronavirus that had just recently shown person-to-person transmission. And aren't we lucky he did! With containment efforts now in full force, Chris returns today to begin discussing the way out.

First of all, if you never had a chance to listen to the podcast from Saturday, January 25, you should do so now. Unfortunately, the warnings Chris gave us that day turned out to be quite prescient. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9904/special-podcast-discussing-c...

But now it's April 9 and soon the conversation will turn from mediation to "getting things back to normal". In order to get ahead of this, the question of just how soon a return might happen needs to be considered now. Thus this podcast. Over the course of the call, Chris and I discuss:

  • At this stage of the crisis, what are steps you should be taking in preparation for the months ahead?
  • The extreme importance of thorough and trustworthy data regarding fatality rate, infection rate, therapeutic treatments and the most likely co-morbidities.
  • The holes in my argument regarding the risks of returning to everyday life. Namely, the total pool of people living with possible co-morbidities is much larger than I had considered.
  • The possible therapeutic benefit of a couple gin-and-tonics!

I think you'll find this discussion to be quite helpful in orienting your mind around "where do we go from here?". Over the course of the holiday weekend, please carve out some time to give it a thorough listen.



Apr 10, 2020 - 9:16am
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:01am
Apr 10, 2020 - 8:46am

Went to the grocery store yesterday

Made me nervous, however I did wear my N95 mask.

This morning I woke up with a persistent dry cough and felt a little warm, although I could not confirm I had a fever as the battery in our thermometer is dead.

Took 7 drops of MMS and now feel fine. :) if I don't post in the future, you will know it didn't work.

Apr 10, 2020 - 8:36am

Ronnie and winder

Ronnie and winder

Good points.

For me, no vaccine i think

But i will get a shingles vaccine as soon as possible having had it once already.

So if i dont want shingles again and am willing to take the vaccine to avoid that pain, why would i not take flu shot for these past 10 years and not want the kungflu superflu vaccine now???

Sometimes i wonder about myself...so conflicted with cross current thoughts sometimes...

Apr 10, 2020 - 8:27am

JNUG r/s ÷10/1.

JNUG r/s ÷10/1.

Announced 2 days ago...

Mixed results on the R/S if you look at the study. But..

Im not a fan. To say the least.

Basically i rode down from 81 to 46 this time. I got off. Then got back in at 4s, ended up trippling my share count but have no where near made up the loss from this time or the 2 before which were as bad/worse. My current position was about 10% of my 81 position, now its about 20% with a few timely trades.

The shares at current prices go to 60. My guess is by april end they end up around 80-100.

Instead of having triple my shares at 81, i will end up with 1/3d of my shares at 81. Makes it damn hard to come back.

Gdxj in 30s now, 2016 hi was 150s iirc. Thats x5 from here, but the metals are not at lows...so...

My guess is miners fly and take gdxj up. How much? Dunno.

But gdxj x5 = jnug at x10. (Dammit should be x15)

X10 now at 6, =60.

X10 at 80-100 = 800 to 1000, but there will be splits along the way.

Does it all equal out? Maybe.

Do i like it? Hell no. Jnug has an uncanny ability to elevator down with me on it. Then stairstep up. Giving it high double digits to come down again is unsettling.

What will i do? Dunno. Ill eval arounf 4/20. But if miners can hold 225 hui i prolly stay with it. Another breakdown from here and i start to question.

I may just close my eyes and go with it no matter what. The position is small... im not buying more....couldnt if i wanted too.

I hope this helps you, but really its just me rambling and pointing out what everyone who has messed with jnug knows already.......JNUG is like a heartless beautiful young woman who offers the time of your life but while she looks good and her voice is soft, she is an ugly bitch whose hands are like hammers with the strength to pulverize a young mans soul. She will do it too, in a nanosecond, without losing sleep or even recognizing what she did wrong. No remorse, no memory. Only looking for the next one and wondering why everyone she interacts with is on guard...

Be careful.

The lure of easy money has a very strong appeal...

BILLHILLY if youre out there what are your thoughts

Apr 10, 2020 - 8:03am
Apr 10, 2020 - 7:04am

Latest Gammon

To cut to the chase, he says yes the Fed will buy everything, bonds, MBS, stocks. Mannarino says the same. If the Fed buys everything then there are no sellers, so nothing goes down. At the end he says it's possible to do this, but not probable it will work. Doesn't say why it probably won't work. Might work for a long time though, wouldn't it?

Economic Collapse: Can Fed Reinflate The EVERYTHING BUBBLE? (Answered)
Apr 10, 2020 - 6:31am


Everybody Gotta Die Sometime
Apr 10, 2020 - 6:19am

The Fallacy

is that this is a lockdown. It most certainly is not. I can go to Lowe's or Walmart whenever I want. Got 3 college students in my house who work at Chipotle (yeah I'm an asshole and make them work for college). They are "essential" cuz yeah people got to to have their burrito. Who knows what they are bringing home.

I'm an airline pilot (61). Essential. Have to go to work, even though CDC says I'm high risk.

I am not complaining. Ain't skeered. I get it, I get it. Rather have it now than this fall as Karl Denninger says. Ain't no vaccine coming, and even if it was, I wouldn't take it. Especially if that slimeball Bill Gates has anything to do with it. Got enough shots from Uncle Sam.

The level and scope of corruption in this country is beyond the pale, and quite frankly I feel we deserve a good chastisement. Maybe this is it, maybe not. Just an inconvenience to this point for me. Recession for me, depression for Tony(prayers for you bro) If this was all there was, I would be quite depressed. However, this weekend proves it's not. Praise be to God! Happy Easter all!

God is on the side of the just.

Ronnie 666
Apr 10, 2020 - 4:54am

The Shutdown then what ?

Craig great interview with Chris - however, we are shutting down the world to save people's lives and prevent swamping our hospitals and ICU's. Not doing such a great job in NYC, Spain or Italy. So if we shut down for 6 months we burn through our economy (which is pretty much burnt out already) and then what? We have been working on an HIV vaccine for decades - nothing yet. What is the likelihood of a vaccine in 6 months or 12 months ? Not great. So at age 61, I have a 6-8% chance of dying from this - that is not insignificant. Certainly higher than a drive down the motorway. Will I go back to work in 6 months with no vaccine or therapeutics - not likely. Craig at 54 your risk is 3-4%? Are you happy to spin the wheel? Add a little mild hypertension or diabetes which you may not even be aware of and you are up to 10% in a flash. That is a lot of people and add obesity and we are talking numbers 15% plus. So in six months after isolation we have 1-2% of the population infected and immune and 98% susceptible ? Then what ? We are back to the beginning again ? There is no end until we get a vaccine that works and a couple of G&Ts, however appealing will not cut it. We like the Fed are all painted into a corner.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
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5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
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5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
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4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
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