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Thursday Conversation - Chris Martenson

Managing risk in a post-virus world.

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In late January, our friend Chris Martenson stopped by to warn us all of the pending dangers of some new coronavirus that had just recently shown person-to-person transmission. And aren't we lucky he did! With containment efforts now in full force, Chris returns today to begin discussing the way out.

First of all, if you never had a chance to listen to the podcast from Saturday, January 25, you should do so now. Unfortunately, the warnings Chris gave us that day turned out to be quite prescient. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9904/special-podcast-discussing-c...

But now it's April 9 and soon the conversation will turn from mediation to "getting things back to normal". In order to get ahead of this, the question of just how soon a return might happen needs to be considered now. Thus this podcast. Over the course of the call, Chris and I discuss:

  • At this stage of the crisis, what are steps you should be taking in preparation for the months ahead?
  • The extreme importance of thorough and trustworthy data regarding fatality rate, infection rate, therapeutic treatments and the most likely co-morbidities.
  • The holes in my argument regarding the risks of returning to everyday life. Namely, the total pool of people living with possible co-morbidities is much larger than I had considered.
  • The possible therapeutic benefit of a couple gin-and-tonics!

I think you'll find this discussion to be quite helpful in orienting your mind around "where do we go from here?". Over the course of the holiday weekend, please carve out some time to give it a thorough listen.

TF

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bently
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:54am

Ratio Arbitrage -- an unwelcome comparison

Your comments are always informative and thanks for that look back at silver.

You noted that after the media reports of physical shortages in 2008 there was a final dramatic smash that that saw silver decline by 38% from September 25 to October 28. Nice work, cartel.

Thus, if history rhymes we might expect something similar still to come?

However, could you be leaving out one key fact -- that in September, 2008, QE 1 had not even been announced yet? In fact, Bernanke announced QE 1 on November 25, 2008, which coincided with the start of silver's great rally and which, in turn, received another huge boost with the announcement of QE 2 two years later in November, 2010.

Today, events are unfolding so much faster. The Fed already has gone all in -- way beyond QE 1 and 2, buying and backstopping everything but equities and we can expect that will come.

So, maybe the cartel boys have done their dirty deeds as best they could and they're being overtaken by the public beginning to buy, en masse, precious metals. Therefore, we're going higher.

A thought for your consideration....

Orange
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:49am
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:49am
Blackwatersailor
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:41am
metallionnaire
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:38am

Good Friday Thoughts

Govts have no end game strategy here – they are fighting a new war for which they are totally unprepared!

Since 1971, and even prior to that, the solution to all manner of problems has been a simple one - expand the money supply. Deficiencies, inefficiencies and malfeasance have been masked by increasing the money supply wherever and whenever they appear. For the most part, it has worked like a magic elixir – until now.

The continued increase in leverage over the past five decades, however, has stretched our interrelated economic, social and political systems to the point where the fabric was ready to rend into tatters – and that was before anyone even heard of coronavirus. Suddenly, we have a new issue that does not heel to increased money supply - no amount of printed money will make it disappear or bend to our will. But, money creation is the only solution known to the current bureaucratic mindset - they have no alternative or backup position and, finally, they are trapped.

A new paradigm will be required and, for that to happen, the entire edifice of current thinking has to be swept aside – which will only occur once the full and brutal reality of the current situation has become fully absorbed into the collective-consciousness with sufficient conviction that the status quo is finally rejected. For that to happen, things will have to get a lot worse before we hit that fulcrum where public policy shifts to a new way of thinking. Once achieved, the old paradigm will seem as quaint and irrelevant as a horse and buggy, and all those who adhered to its mantra will be deemed redundant. Further, the exponential behavior of pandemics, in which we have all become educated in recent days, makes it possible that these events can occur much more quickly than anyone expects. History only has two speeds – sluggish and supersonic. What might have taken a decade, or longer, in previous times may transpire in a month during these times. That being the case, it is quite possible that the old system and the lockstep adherence to money printing as the default economic strategy will collapse before the end of this year if events continue to evolve exponentially.

Strategic planning, village mentality, and self-reliance may re-emerge, once again, as being self-evident ways in which to organize a society – and with it, a return to the metrics of real assets and a purposeful life.

First, however, we need to endure the prerequisite tsunami, so that it might clear the landscape of all that went before. Then, and only then, can we start to rebuild a new social and economic order.

History is unfolding in front of us and we have front row seats. If you choose to be a spectator, enjoy the show – but if you are more pro-active, you have an historic opportunity to help shape the nascent social and economic order that will spontaneously emerge from the carnage unfolding in front of us. What role will you play?

AGXIIKtonym9
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:36am

Thanks Tony. On a lighter side a friend sent me a history of TP

Three things caught my eye in reading how the Chinese invented TP. Something to think about there.

One of the most civilized inventions IMO and it came from China. While my ancestors were living in caves, catching their brontoburgers with stone knives and bear claws, the Chinese were wiping with rice paper

The average roll has 333 sheets. Whether you line up with appropriate social distancing to buy your TP or snitch it from your hotel room (9% of people admit to this) be sure it's always in odd numbers of rolls. With 2 rolls of TP no one wants to be caught doing something that comes even close to 666

Speaking of 666, that is, on average, the number of rolls used daily in the Pentagon. Figures

How someone got that number I do not know but there is a whole wing on the ground floor where the propeller heads and green eye shade Seymores tally how much the Bentagon spends a day blowing up shit. I guess maintaining the count of how much TP is included in the battlefield comes under that category. Only camo TP is issued to the front line troops.

I heard someone came up with TP made of flattened compresses primacord. If so I want some!

But the thousands of perfumed princes that roam the halls of that 6 sided building use only silk TP. I'd take that concession at $5 per roll and clean up

Most people think that on 9-11 it was a737 that hit the accounting offices at the Pentagon. From the bootleg video on the net right after the attack it looked a lot like a cruise missile.

Whether jet or missile, many said the attack was to destroy the records of Cheney's illegal Halliburton contracts and whereabout of Yamashita's gold. I think they also wanted to get rid of the records accounting for the PP's use of MIC grade silk TP and 55 gallon drums of high speed low drag KY

Blackwatersailor
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:35am

John Hopkins

https://daily.jstor.org/jennifer-nuzzo-were-definitely-not-overreacting-...

Jennifer Nuzzo. epidemiologist for John Hopkins.

Highly recommend you read this aricle.

Winder
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:30am

PhD

The Dr likely refers to a PhD in some sort of public health field like epidemiology.

Windertonym9
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:23am

Shingles

Had it twice. First time was brutal. Second time was a minor thing. Would not take vaccine for that if you’ve already had it. My experience only, don’t know if that’s typical.

Blackwatersailor
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:22am

I knew there was a reason

That I dislike cats.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/07/science.abb7015

Last time I wake up with a cat's ass in my face. This should be enough for the Misses to stop pestering me about a new cat.

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