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Thursday Conversation - Chris Martenson

Managing risk in a post-virus world.

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In late January, our friend Chris Martenson stopped by to warn us all of the pending dangers of some new coronavirus that had just recently shown person-to-person transmission. And aren't we lucky he did! With containment efforts now in full force, Chris returns today to begin discussing the way out.

First of all, if you never had a chance to listen to the podcast from Saturday, January 25, you should do so now. Unfortunately, the warnings Chris gave us that day turned out to be quite prescient. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9904/special-podcast-discussing-c...

But now it's April 9 and soon the conversation will turn from mediation to "getting things back to normal". In order to get ahead of this, the question of just how soon a return might happen needs to be considered now. Thus this podcast. Over the course of the call, Chris and I discuss:

  • At this stage of the crisis, what are steps you should be taking in preparation for the months ahead?
  • The extreme importance of thorough and trustworthy data regarding fatality rate, infection rate, therapeutic treatments and the most likely co-morbidities.
  • The holes in my argument regarding the risks of returning to everyday life. Namely, the total pool of people living with possible co-morbidities is much larger than I had considered.
  • The possible therapeutic benefit of a couple gin-and-tonics!

I think you'll find this discussion to be quite helpful in orienting your mind around "where do we go from here?". Over the course of the holiday weekend, please carve out some time to give it a thorough listen.

TF

  74 Comments

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anarchitect
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:38am

On topic

In case no one has posted this already:

Coronavirus Rhapsody (original music by Queen)

Dr. P. Metalsbently
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:36am

anyone else notice

these "radio" posts start to show up only when there is stress on the system...🧐

Dr. P. Metalsanarchitect
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:35am

haha

good one 🤣

Mickeytonym9
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:21am

Re, jnug

First, jnug and jdst both are under 5. That tells me something happened with the derivatives and we saw the disconnect that one day where jnug dropped right at the close. I rebought right after the close and have made some money but it really has not kept pace the way it should. True for nugt also.

so, i switched over to options and buying bull spreads and using gdx and gdxj, tighter bid ask, and also individual stock options which actually have better profit opportunities. Its more work, a fair trade off.

also, aided by low cost of trading, i have become a short term trader. Sometimes a day trader.

even short term trading covered calls, snaring a 20% gain but small dollars.

its time to use all the tools in the tool box.

and be happy we have stacks.

i also bought more OUNZ for the reason that gold i think will do well and i can convert easily, or sell, and more pslv since these etfs have the metals and are using spot for daily nav so i think there is potential upside there somehow.

i bought some slv and gld calls 2-3 months out when we have sudden dips believing we get a big run up soon.

matt_
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:20am

Planting a garden

I took this picture out my home office window a few minutes ago. Maybe I will need to live just eating dry beans and rice.

Orange
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:17am

My take on Alasdair's article

The shit will/is hitting the fan! Get your fiat out of the banks.

WinderTF
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:16am

Nope

In 1976, Birx received a BS in chemistry from Houghton College. In 1980, Birx earned an MDfrom the Hershey Medical Center, Pennsylvania State University.[5]

AgstAger
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:06am

More Jeff Christian

I'm not sure whether he's on a mission to defend the metals pricing system or whether he's just getting a lot of invites to be interviewed because of current circumstances. In any event, here he is again, singing from the same hymnal. He comes off as boldly confident and anxious to challenge anyone who suspects manipulation. This is a Kitco interview with Daniela. In it, he even goes so far as to chastise her for having conspiracy theorists on her show. He criticizes Kitco for not "vetting" them. She hits back hard but tactfully, pointing out that she just tries to provide different perspectives for public consideration and that's why he's there now, to provide his alternative view point. That pretty much ended his criticism of her. Here's the link:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-09/Why-Russia-s-central-bank-really-s...

anarchitect
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:05am

Housecleaning tip

Yesterday my wife thought she spotted a cockroach in the kitchen. She sprayed everything down and cleaned thoroughly.

Today I'm putting it in the bathroom!

Blackwatersailor
Apr 10, 2020 - 9:54am

Cold war to luke warm

https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/april/unleash-privateers

At what point do you think one side or the other starts lobbing nukes? I'm thinking that this pandemic is just a dry run. Scary as that thought is.

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