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Thursday Conversation - Chris Martenson

Managing risk in a post-virus world.

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In late January, our friend Chris Martenson stopped by to warn us all of the pending dangers of some new coronavirus that had just recently shown person-to-person transmission. And aren't we lucky he did! With containment efforts now in full force, Chris returns today to begin discussing the way out.

First of all, if you never had a chance to listen to the podcast from Saturday, January 25, you should do so now. Unfortunately, the warnings Chris gave us that day turned out to be quite prescient. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9904/special-podcast-discussing-c...

But now it's April 9 and soon the conversation will turn from mediation to "getting things back to normal". In order to get ahead of this, the question of just how soon a return might happen needs to be considered now. Thus this podcast. Over the course of the call, Chris and I discuss:

  • At this stage of the crisis, what are steps you should be taking in preparation for the months ahead?
  • The extreme importance of thorough and trustworthy data regarding fatality rate, infection rate, therapeutic treatments and the most likely co-morbidities.
  • The holes in my argument regarding the risks of returning to everyday life. Namely, the total pool of people living with possible co-morbidities is much larger than I had considered.
  • The possible therapeutic benefit of a couple gin-and-tonics!

I think you'll find this discussion to be quite helpful in orienting your mind around "where do we go from here?". Over the course of the holiday weekend, please carve out some time to give it a thorough listen.

TF

  74 Comments

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anarchitectDeaconBenjamin
Apr 10, 2020 - 2:43pm

Roubini summary

In a nutshell:

  • Thinks there should be a lockdown because of the virus.
  • Pleased with Fed printing and propping everything up.
  • Somewhat pleased with trillions in stimulus but would like to see moar.
  • US dollar and Treasuries are the safe havens.
  • Markets are priced for a serious recession, but not a depression.

The guy gives me gas. He's a total Keynesian, but at least one who can foresee problems when a market is overvalued. No mention of gold as a safe haven; based on his past pronunciamientos, he has no use for gold. An idiot savant.

SteveWJLS
Apr 10, 2020 - 12:58pm

Contact gold

OTC Pink sheets are the wild west. Contact Gold (C on the TSX-V exchange) closed at CAD$0.11.

Clarkii Stomias
Apr 10, 2020 - 12:30pm

You Still Do Not Want CV

I know we will have to move on and get back with society, but this is another update from the head emergency surgeon at our University of Colorado Health system. My friend is head of marketing for CO UHS and he will forward these updates on to me occasionally. Avoid getting CV for as long as possible. (And despite what Dr. Zane says, I for one will ask for the hydroxychloroquine, azythomycin, zinc combo when I get this.)

https://m.facebook.com/1545987868/posts/10221723183939280/?d=n

JLS
Apr 10, 2020 - 12:05pm

Is anyone invested in CGOL?

Contact Gold in US market, OTC Pink, fell over 99% yesterday from 8.2 cents per share to .002 cents per share. Given their assets, this makes no sense.

I have searched for an answer. Does anyone know what happened?

AGXIIK
Apr 10, 2020 - 11:54am

Here's an eye popping stat and a year to remember

Gold futures today are up $68, hitting $1,754. That's $164 (8.5%) away from Aug 2011 peak gold price of $1,918.

1918 was the year the Spanish Flu started.

Just sayin'

DeaconBenjamin
Apr 10, 2020 - 11:31am

Recession Mutating into Possible Depression (w/ Nouriel Roubini)

Certain Recession Mutating into Possible Depression (w/ Nouriel Roubini)
Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

AGXIIKanarchitect
Apr 10, 2020 - 11:17am

Damn brilliant

Coronavirus Rhapsody

Nigel Blackanarchitect
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:56am

@anarchitect

Thank you for posting that video of Coronavirus Rhapsody... brought a much needed smile to my face :-)

Orange
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:51am
Mickey
Apr 10, 2020 - 10:39am

The big run up

Years ago I think it was Doug Short who had a nowandfutures.com site that gave a detailed account of Weimar Germany and the collapse. The website is gone now.

I think theselast two weeks, we have entered that similarity.

heavy printing, stocks and bonds going up, which led to hyperinflation.while the markets went up, companies were closing and people lost jobs

eventually on nov 23, 1923 it all collapsed and gold and silver reflected that in a spectacular way.

lost in the covid 19 issue is all the greed and unnecessary leverage is why banks, hedge funds companies have to be baileded out to keep the system from failing now, but the price will be paid in the future.

we here know it, more or less and differently for each person. But the population in general does not.

i know that because many i speak with just recite what msnbc or cnn or fox tell them.

both mark levin and dan bongino are now speaking of the dangers presented by the high debt and bailing out everything.

there is no such thing as a free lunch.

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Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

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