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Thursday Conversation - Willem Middelkoop

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Here's another "Thursday Conversation" that is recorded and posted on Wednesday. Maybe it's time to rename these weekly podcasts? Either way, if you're interested in what might happen next...aka The Big Reset...be sure to listen to this discussion as Willem literally wrote the book on this subject.

More info on Willem, his fund and a link to a free download of "The Big Reset" can be found here: https://www.cdfund.com/en/

For today, I had planned to focus primarily upon the current state of the global monetary system and what will replace it when it eventually fails. However, the events of this week in the global gold market created the need to address that situation first.

All in all, this is a very helpful podcast from a very informed and wise source. Please give it a thorough listen.

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DeaconBenjamin
Mar 26, 2020 - 9:08am

Silver

Near month contract $14.90 (investing.com) spot $14.60 (TFMR tracker)?

cavalier
Mar 26, 2020 - 8:33am

What stocks to buy if there is a Reset?

What do you think will be the best stocks to buy if there is a reset?

The Hedgeless Horseman lists his biggest holdings as Irving, Novo, Lion One, and Kalamazoo. He also says he has a lot of risk appetite.

Eric always talks about ore bodies so a company with large amounts of ore, even if uneconomical at today’s prices, may be a speculative play.

I like Novo as a reset play. KL could also do well as it owns a chunk of Novo who owns a piece of Kalamazoo.

streber
Mar 26, 2020 - 8:21am

Trading is furious, $6 to $8 swings every minute

Also, COMEX has raised margins, again.

streber
Mar 26, 2020 - 8:07am

ED Steer again, The Rich are Scrambling for Safety

Ludwig Karl is stuck at home, worried about his elderly relatives. All the while his business is booming.

He's a board member of Swiss Gold Safe Ltd., an operator of high-security vaults in the Alps that's storing growing sums of precious metals for wealthy foreigners as the Covid-19 pandemic worsens. The company usually helps customers buy gold, but governments have closed scores of businesses amid the crisis, making it increasingly difficult for people to get their hands on the physical product.

"It's absolutely crazy what's going on," Karl said. "Right now, if somebody wants to buy gold, I wish them all the best in finding it. Most of the bullion dealers are closed."

Switzerland's refining industry, a major international hub for processing gold into bars and coins, has largely shut because of efforts to contain the global virus. Grounded flights are disrupting plans to transport bullion around the world and gold mining firms are scaling back activities, decelerating the precious metals industry as demand for gold increases.

"The whole supply chain is getting tighter and tighter," said Debra Thomson, a global sales director for gold at IBV International Vaults, which offers safe-deposit boxes and the purchase of precious metals worldwide. "The last time I saw this amount of chaos in the market was with 9/11."

This gold-related news item showed up on the Bloomberg Internet site at 7:19 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time on Wednesday morning -- and was updated about ten minutes later. I found it embedded in a GATA dispatch -- and another link to it is here.

streber
Mar 26, 2020 - 7:59am

Ed Steer on yesterday's deliveries...381 added...yikes

The CME Preliminary Report for the Wednesday trading session showed that gold open interest in March rose by 4 contracts, leaving 390 still around, minus the 387 mentioned a few paragraphs ago. Tuesday's Daily Delivery Report showed that 377 gold contracts were actually posted for delivery today, so that means that 4+377=381 more gold contracts were just added to the March delivery month.
===

I'm sure it means nawthing...lol
===

further down this from Ed:

As I mentioned earlier, gold deliveries in March so far are monstrous for what is not a regular delivery month in this precious metal -- and copious amounts of contracts are being added to the March delivery month every day now. April deliveries in gold are coming up next week -- and it could be quite a sight when the first day notice numbers get posted on the CME's website around 10:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, March 30th. Maybe that's why the CME is already in trouble getting their hands on enough physical gold to meet that demand.

All the large traders that aren't standing for delivery in April, have to roll or sell those contracts before the COMEX close on Friday -- and the rest of the traders have to be out by the close of COMEX trading on Monday. Ted said that the COMEX futures prices that are now posted, make it far more enticing for them to roll over their positions, rather than stand for delivery in April......which may be the object of this exercise.

I also noticed that the GOFO rate is starting to sneak a bit higher. Not in dangerous territory yet, but the trend is somewhat ominous. The link to the current rate and chart is here.

IndoEagleKeynesianKryptonite
Mar 26, 2020 - 7:31am

Vitamin C

Interesting to see that they are trying Vitamin C as part of therapy. Massive doses of C is my first line of defense if starting to feel bad. For those without chloroquine or hydrochloroquine, why not give it a shot?

Note that the stated dose of 1,500 mg IV is not massive. The Chinese protocols were 100-200mg/kg body weight per day I believe. Granted, that was oral, not IV, but still, 1500mg probably does not cut it. The body can tolerate a heck of a lot of C, so load up big time I think.

A friend of mine 's wife is in the hospital in Jakarta on a respirator. They put her in an artificially induced coma. I was trying to get him to have the doctors administer mega doses of C intravenously, but don't think he did. She has shown slight improvement, but the prognosis is still pretty grim. With no choro or hydrocloroquine to be had there I am pretty sure), time to work outside the box.

Before I escaped Jakarta, I already had it set up with my Dr to administer mega doses of C at the first indications of infection.

Good luck everyone.

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Blythesshrink
Mar 26, 2020 - 6:58am

6 trillion spending

If the US gov is serious about a 6 Trillion USD spending splurge on top of the structural trillion dollar deficit, then factoring a 14 % annual GDP drop (this is not set in stone obviously), the debt to GDP should rise to somewhere between 165% and 170% of GDP.

It's crackers - the Fed will have to print, print, print to keep yields manageable as there are no real savings to buy up the treasuries; it's very difficult to say that Alasdair Macleod is wrong in terms of a coming hyperinflation.

ratioarbitrage
Mar 26, 2020 - 5:14am

Granular analysis of 1929 with news headlines

https://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/the-great-crash-of-1...

For those who don't have time to read it, the structure was:

Black Monday, Black Tuesday (Oct 28/29), falls by about a third from 382 to around 215

Thursday, Friday (Oct 31/Nov 1), dead cat bounce from 215 to 258 (over 20%)

Later that day, and lasting until November 13/14, slump to below 200, making the lows for 1929 (but by NO means the low for the market collapse).

Although the monetary conditions are different, human psychology is likely rather similar in our days.

KeynesianKryptonite
Mar 26, 2020 - 4:15am

New York hospitals treating coronavirus patients with vitamin C

"Seriously sick coronavirus patients in New York state’s largest hospital system are being given massive doses of vitamin C — based on promising reports that it’s helped people in hard-hit China, The Post has learned.

Dr. Andrew G. Weber, a pulmonologist and critical-care specialist affiliated with two Northwell Health facilities on Long Island, said his intensive-care patients with the coronavirus immediately receive 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C.

From the New York Post, 24 March

"Seriously sick coronavirus patients in New York state’s largest hospital system are being given massive doses of vitamin C — based on promising reports that it’s helped people in hard-hit China, The Post has learned.

Dr. Andrew G. Weber, a pulmonologist and critical-care specialist affiliated with two Northwell Health facilities on Long Island, said his intensive-care patients with the coronavirus immediately receive 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C."

Maybe, just maybe Linus Pauling (Nobel Prize Winner in Chemistry, Nobel Peace Prize) was on to something. I guess we will see.

ratioarbitrage
Mar 26, 2020 - 3:18am

Nature and mathematics

1) Review current total coronavirus infections per country

2) Multiply by current average daily % increase.

Conclusion: by the close tomorrow and going into the weekend, US will lead the coronavirus board. The biggest outbreak in the world. I don't think this is priced in but unless the laws of nature or mathematics suddenly change, it is an overwhelmingly probable near term future reality.

Edit: multiply by the % increase *twice* for this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

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Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 4/20

4/20 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
4/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
4/23 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
4/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
4/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 4/6

4/8 2:00 ET March FOMC minutes
4/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
4/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/30

3/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
4/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
4/1 9:45 ET Markit manu PMI
4/1 10:00 ET ISM manu PMI
4/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
4/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
4/3 9:45 ET Market service PMI
4/3 10:00 ET ISM service PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 3/23

3/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
3/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
3/26 8:30 ET Weekly jobless claims
3/27 8:30 ET Personal Inc and Spending

Key Economic Events Week of 3/9

(as if these actually matter)
3/11 8:30 ET CPI
3/12 8:30 ET weekly jobless claims
3/12 8:30 ET PPI
3/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 3/2

3/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
3/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
3/4 8:15 ET ADP employment
3/4 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
3/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
3/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
3/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
3/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
3/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories