I just wanted to share what I have noticed recently and to ask for your opinion - here is it:
The largest stock exchange that trades wheat in Europe is located in Paris, in the last 10 years the average difference in prices of wheat between Paris and Chicago have been more or less in the vicinity of 4%. From yesterday the price in Paris in euros (1.44$) was greater than the price in $ in Chicago. Meaning the difference was approximately 40%. Theoretically this could mean:
A) The prices in Paris are about to plunge
B) The prices in Chicago are about to skyrocket
C) There is no correlation.
My personal opinion is B) however I'm speculating on the long side of wheat for over a year and a half now, so I could be bias.
I would greatly appreciate your opinions on the topic.