Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

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Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 10:40am goldenbear
Green Lantern
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No you buy it because the

No you buy it because the perceptions are shifting and now it's a favorable investment hence the term bull market. Like Mike Maloney says, I don't want gold and silver, it's just I don't want anything else. You buy the dips as well as maintain a good deal of dry powder for what will inevitably extraordinary dips.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 10:48am hpx
Kegfreak
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Hans, I owe you an apology

Sorry for suspecting your involvement. Good to see you are on our side. I am glad your not connected to Alfred Little. I read your posts and it looks like I jumped the gun. I'm just trying to make sense of this like everyone else.

Keg

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 1:35pm Green Lantern
Jasper Puddlemaker
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Green Lantern wrote: I often

Green Lantern wrote:

I often tell my wife what I'm buying and I can tell you boy did she protest when I bought this one.

Interesting.

One organization I deal with stays out of China too, yet they are always looking into projects in places I would not even consider being a part of (Middle East, the "Stans," etc.). My rationale for not having a lot of fear with China is, since China is making resource deals all around the world, they have to recognize the necessity of instilling confidence in their partners so that the partners will be comfortable making long-term deals with the Chinese. A way to do that is by honoring contracts and encouraging legitimate business activity in areas of need within the country (resource sector for example). So I have more confidence in Chinese operations than in, for example, Zimbabwe, Bolivia, Rep of Congo, etc.).

Right? Wrong? Deluded? Would be interested in any comments you have since you know the country and people.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 2:09pm Jasper Puddlemaker
kjm
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Makes sense to me JP.  I

Makes sense to me JP. I bought 3000 shares on Wed for 6.58. She's grinding higher today penny by penny. Maybe we'll see a mega squeeze.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 2:11pm Kegfreak
hpx
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Hehe, no worries, feelings

Hehe, no worries, feelings run hot in the precious-metal sector sometimes :)

I am currently contemplating triggers and scenarios where I would possibly get back in. But it's too early for me, since I'm a bit of a chicken.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 3:56pm
rowdyboy
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alfredlittle.com web site vanished

Alfred 'the King" Little's web site is down today. Did the SEC/FBI/Canadian Mounted Police/Interpol/Rui Feng get him?

Or did Mr. Anonymous just feel a need to disappear himself even more?

One can only hope.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 4:01pm
Neodymium
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Added a bit more...

Added a bit more SVM to the pile today.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 5:13pm
rowdyboy
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Painting the tape under $7 - FAIL

Approximately 800,000 shares traded in the last 3 minutes to get the price back under $7 for the close. It showed $6.98 close then adjusted to $7.02. What a battle! Sweet!

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 6:20pm Jasper Puddlemaker
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Jasper Puddlemaker

Jasper Puddlemaker wrote:
Green Lantern wrote:

I often tell my wife what I'm buying and I can tell you boy did she protest when I bought this one.

Interesting.

One organization I deal with stays out of China too, yet they are always looking into projects in places I would not even consider being a part of (Middle East, the "Stans," etc.). My rationale for not having a lot of fear with China is, since China is making resource deals all around the world, they have to recognize the necessity of instilling confidence in their partners so that the partners will be comfortable making long-term deals with the Chinese. A way to do that is by honoring contracts and encouraging legitimate business activity in areas of need within the country (resource sector for example). So I have more confidence in Chinese operations than in, for example, Zimbabwe, Bolivia, Rep of Congo, etc.).

Right? Wrong? Deluded? Would be interested in any comments you have since you know the country and people.

This is a complex question and a good one. Not easily answered in a forum where those still invested in SVM are focused on when is the stock coming back around and already vocal disinterest in the business ways of Chinese. Suffice to say that big corporations hire mega-consulting firms to learn how to do business in China simply because the culture is entirely different than the US and they still fail miserably. Now SVM has less of this problem because they have a Chinese CEO. I'd be more worried about a Chinese operation with a western CEO. And the basic thrust of my wife's protest is that "you know how they do business." And she ain't proud of it. It's a country where success in business wholly depends on your relationship with local officials. And the way to somebodies heart is through their pockets. Not too much different from US Congress. The whole cliche about power corrupts applies here. Fortune 100 companies fail miserably because we arrogantly tell them what we want. Obama committed this very basic mistake the last time he met with Premier HU, telling him what they should do with their currency. Don't do that! Just don't. They are not blooming idiots. We are total bumbling idiots when it comes to dealing with China. The time our spy military jet was shot down over Hainan Island is another exemplary example of the wests inability to have succesful diplomacy with China. I know some Chinese diplomats and they all speak this language. Ya would think, we would send somebody over there with knowledge of their culture and language.

As far as your comment regarding China being better than some of the African countries, I'd agree. Some of those countries are led by ruthless out right dictators. China is a smarter and much more sophisticated. Once you've done what you need to do to make the politicians happy, you are ok and they certainly don't want to hurt foreign investment but they won't cow tow to it either. But if you check it out, China probably has very good diplomatic ties with these African countries giving them boatloads of money or building hospitals in return for access to resources. And as long as a company is trading on Canadian or US exchange, there obviously has to be much greater transparency. But under the table deals are routine so the accusation about Feng doing business with family was aligned with what might be routine.

In my mind, whoever did this was very aware of the Chinese way of doing business and they used that to their advantage in their letter. Which gave it some plausibility even if it was only for a few hours. This has happened to non-mining companies and again taking advantage of the stereotypical cultural behaviors, many which have truth to them.

For this to be successful, and it was, the accusations only needed to be believable for an hour, scare people, have it go viral and damage was done. And although not too many people believe it, an hour of doubt created considerable damage that could take weeks or months to repair. I'd say they executed this crime well and probably made a boat load of money. It's doubtful they wanted or needed for the allegations to stick. Sit and wait is not why I entered this stock. However, like any corporate sabotage, it can be reversed and likely it will. But watch this baby hit $8.00 and those who didn't head for the exits just might in a second round to take some profit. $10.00 by next year might turn out to be optimistic in light of silvers performance and another nebulous black swan event hovering in the air.

I'd also suggest that geopolitics is going to become an even greater risk factor in the future. I'm mostly an investor, on an occaision such as SVM, a trader, but never gambler and always a stacker. My investments metals and non-metal very much consider geopolitics. Just as we are seeing currency wars, we are also seeing resource wars. And I think that's what the Pan Asian Gold exchange is about. They want unfettered access to these controlled markets.

I highly recommend Richard Maybury, he is about the best there is when it comes to looking at investments according to Geopolitical lines and his newsletter is extremely on the money. He calls China Chaoston Zone. The second interview is with both Rick Rule and Richard Maybury. There is enough intelligence between these two men to light up a city. Neither are technicians or dabble in fundamentals yet hugely succesful. Second warning is that neither man attributes the wild volatility to the degree of manipulation that Turd or Eric Sprott thinks is happening. Despite that, I think Richard Maybury's warning about investing in Chaostan zone should be heeded. One day I'll take my own advice.

https://www.thedailybell.com/1737/Anthony-Wile-with-Richard-Maybury-on-the-Collapse-of-the-Anglo-Empire-and-What-It-Means-for-You.html

https://www.thedailybell.com/2797/Anthony-Wile-Richard-Maybury-Rick-Rule-More-War-US-Dollar

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 6:49pm
rowdyboy
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Green Lantern...

...thanks for your take, and background analysis. I too agree with needing to understand geopolitical factors. I have focused on improving in that area since I started invested in PM's and miners in 2007.

Unfortunately every miner will have to play ball with the gubmint on their terms, no matter where they are, China, Mexico, South America, and even right here in the USA.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 8:25pm
ghost
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The hit pieces keep on

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 8:27pm Green Lantern
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Management of Perceptions

On the do over Dr. Feng should hire a female oriental grad student out of the Harvard MBA program to act as his translator. Management of perceptions appears to be a large part of the ivy league culture.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 9:22pm
Jasper Puddlemaker
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Green Lantern...

Thank you.

I had to smile a few times as I read your response. Having lived and worked in the Middle East at one time, so much of what you said sounded familiar. One does not set foot in a foreign country with the attitude that they will tell them how to do things! Yet that mistake seems to be repeated in place after place, decade after decade.

I sure agree with the idea of keeping up on geopolitics. For those of us (a minority for sure) interested in that sort of thing it isn't so hard to do, but for the majority it is almost impossible for lack of interest. Those of us who do enjoy, and keep up with it, will have the edge for sure. Guess I better check out Maybury. I have never had a subscription, have thought about it from time to time, but have always procrastinated. Thanks.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 11:14pm
mouser
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SO according to that article

SO according to that article if you have a mine and own part of the refinery that processes the ore ( and there are many) these are a fraud because they are selling to a related party. How come only the ones in china are frauds?

Sometimes i really believe the media writers are short, ( or paid by the shorts) and then put out these inane articles quoting some anonymous chinese gangster hiding behind tress.

What is really behind all this is huge hedge funds who are playing puts and spreads in the options markets, and now have a short and distort game going to make sure those make them millions. If they have to naked short to make the stock look weak, that is what they do. Create some phantom shares to battle the company's buyback and insider buying.

Total farce. If they dont get these criminals and nail em to the cross, this kind of fraud will only get worse, if that can be imagined.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 11:42pm
Captain Benny
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Once more shortable

SVM is once more shortable at Interactive Brokers. As of after-market on Friday they show ~550,000 shares shortable. This is up from ZERO on Thursday and 450k on Wed. This is an incredibly small number at less than 0.5% !!!

When major broker dealers start having trouble locating shares to short, you know you're in for a rally. Say goodbye to the shorts next week fellas... its going to be massive upside.

Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 8:40am Captain Benny
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Dividend coming up soon

I'm sure it was already noted and most people here are aware, but SVM will pay a 0.02 dividend on October 21, 2011. The ex-dividend date is Sept 28, 2011. The shorts on Sept 28 will be short the dividend ... its not a big amount, but its just another hit against anyone dumb enough to hold SVM short on that date.

Since we've got an active and pissed off CEO, I wouldn't be shocked to see a special dividend declared or a new buyback plan announced even though the current one isn't even finished yet.

Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 10:10am
Puregold
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Rui Feng buys another 135,000

Rui Feng buys another 135,000 shares at the end of this last week with his own money.

https://canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=svm

Other insider buying this week is from Jack Austin (5000 shares), an SVM advisor and former member of the Canadian Senate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Austin

...and Myles Gao, a geologist and a corporate officer with SVM (2,990 shares).

https://silvercorpmetals.com/company/management/

Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 11:20am Puregold
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Yes its nice seeing the insider buys

And for that reason i dont think we will see a special onetime divvy announced. It would look bad on them right after the big insider buys by the ceo. Had they announced the big divvy AND THEN started buying , there would be no questions.

What we are seeing tho is that the company AND the insiders are buying back shares of the stock, in a big way. This is reducing the amount of shares out there in the public float for trading. Hasnt made much of a difference against the huge distort and short campaign, at least not yet. Once these shorting ( naked shorting ) entities land in court, and the associated hedge funds are taken to court in a shareholder class action suit, we will see a huge run up in the stock.

I did like the way Lorne Waldman came across in the Financial Sense interview with Jim Puplava. Much better than the CEO Rui Feng , who is understandably pizzed off bigtime. He addressed each and every one of the allegations.

Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 11:39am Woods
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Morgan/Puplava SVM Interview

Just a reminder that there are 2 good interviews now available at www.financialsense.com. One covering the fraud/manipulation story in general and one focusing on the individual companies(SVM, GORO, GPL). I think that they are very informative interviews. I'm currently long SVM & GORO and have sold a large number of put options on SVM to take advantage of the massive premiums.

Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 12:00pm
trader123
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hold or sell?

To sell or not to sell my SVM shares? That is the question. Using fundamental analysis it's definitely a hold (and/or buy). As Silvercorp's shares are undervalued. It has brilliant annual revenue growth. It has no debt to equity and the production costs are outstanding. That is if you believe the documents that the company published. I find it very unlikely that Silvercorp is a fraud, but muddy waters has been right before on the China based Sino-forest company...