Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

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Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 7:26pm Puregold
Haole
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Please

I didn't say this a criteria I'd use to invest in a company. That would be ridiculous. It was only an example of why that BNN interview sucked in terms of a CEO doing press at a juncture like this. So the decreased numbers of trucks is true then? Interesting.

This thing has obviously become religious with a lot of people so I'll not comment anymore unless it supports the sentimental status quo of the congregation. ;)

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 7:41pm Haole
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I'm not married to SVM.

I'm not married to SVM. Nothing religious about it. If they stop making money for me, I'll move elsewhere. I do my DD before plopping money into the palm of any company. The hit pieces that have surfaced so far are laughable to anyone with knowledge of mining who has bothered to stay informed about the various filings. It's either a hit job by shorts who are looking to make a buck, the opening salvo of a hostile takeover or the mumblings of morons who possibly believe that they are doing investors a good deed by exposing news breaking truths that are already known to anyone who does thorough DD. Still waiting for something to be published with an anti-SVM slant that actually makes sense.

Rui Feng isn't an actor or a tap dancer. He is a business man who has had great success doing what he does. He has been integral to SVM's success. Let's not change him. The day he appears wearing a Cosby sweater with rouge on his cheeks is the day I look for other investments.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 7:50pm Haole
captaj
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don't hate the player...

Haole wrote:

... their trucks have a 30K lb capacity but they're generally overloading them to 40K which accounts for the decreased number of trucks....

At the risk of sounding like a d-bag, What happens in China, should stay in China. I didn't like that statement about 30k trucks holding 40k....However, they're not the first company to abuse their machinery.
Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 8:07pm captaj
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I didn't like that statement

I didn't like that statement about 30k trucks holding 40k....However, they're not the first company to abuse their machinery.

The companies would argue that it's not abuse. They simply care more about productivity than equipment longevity. The manufactures can claim the trucks last 20 years (or whatever they claim) by specifying a capacity that will add to the trucks longevity. It's marketing, mostly. Of course, no one wants to load a tuck to the point it falls off a cliff when making a turn. These aren't vehicles that anyone is thinking of passing on to their children. It's a tool to serve a purpose. When it dies, time to write a purchase order or find a rental.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 8:35pm
captaj
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to clearify

I don't have any problem with the way they maximize their equipment. Equipment is cheap when the profits are large and time is short. My only problem is admitting how much the trucks are loaded. I think it would be better if he told the world the trucks are filled to the brim and let the next earnings report tell the story. When beating these false claims, I'd only want to inspire confidence, and not give anyone any other angle to pick those words apart.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 8:44pm
infinite_easing
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Rui Feng on BNN -- Oh Dear

god bless him, that was bad. Lack of coherent messaging. No apparent communications strategy behind that rant. Anybody had media training at SVM? Hopefully they can get a clear and simple message line ready for the media rollout next week.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 9:05pm
TaxFreeLife
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Trucks

Have been reading the blog since before the move to the new site, but first ever post.

Luckily was not too exposed other than a Jan 2013 option spread when the news hit, but took the opportunity to add in low 7's and then again at low 6's.

I liked the truck comment. It was such a simple response that it made the analysis (I use the term loosely) included in the report look very amateurish. If you know so little that you are unaware that within the industry, trucks are filled above their recommended capacity as standard. Then how are you qualified to make observations on grades and the professionals calculating reserves.

It is like standing outside a bar and calling fraud on the earnings because turnover did not equal people multiplied by recommended drinking limits.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 10:11pm TaxFreeLife
brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother
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finally analysis i can believe in

"It is like standing outside a bar and calling fraud on the earnings because turnover did not equal people multiplied by recommended drinking limits."

yeah, and then scraping some urine off the outside of the building to determine the the average alcohol content of each patron.

working for al little (or carson block) doesn't sound all that glamorous

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 10:30pm
Woods
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Morgan/Puplava SVM Interview

David Morgn will be speaking with someone from Silvercorp and Jim Puplava at 11:00AM PST this Friday - September 16, 2011 concerning SiverCorp (NYSE -SVM).

https://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/subscribe

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 10:31pm
goldenbear
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Go get the criminals!

You're not going to please everybody all of the time. When this all started there was a huge stink about how they did not respond fast enough. Now its about how you can't understand his English. I can barely understand him myself... but I think its necessary for the CEO to come out and do the interviews and not hide behind some slick PR rep. I actually think its a huge vote of confidence, if you think about it. He's not smooth and polished. He's not calm and cool. He's coming out in public and countering the allegations. All the while giving a horrid interview! As a shareholder that's exactly what I want to see. The management getting irate at the criminals. I have no problem with him saying that they will go after them. It is exactly what needs to happen.

"An error does not become a mistake, until you refuse to correct it."
Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 10:48pm goldenbear
Woods
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I agree to get the criminals

I agree to get the criminals both with criminal charges as well as tactics that will pressure them to cover.

You have a great point goldenbear. The rawness in defense of his company that he displayed during the interview was as you would expect someone to behave if caught up in the middle of a short sale scam this big.

I think SVM will be treated very fairly in the interview tomorrow with Morgan.

Holding SVM Jan-12 $12

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 10:50pm
Captain Benny
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Shortable? NOPE!

Interactive Brokers no longer lists SVM as a shortable security. Yesterday it listed approx 450k shares shortable. Today: ZIP, Zilch, Nada!

SVM will keep moving up next week... patience is a virtue my friends. We've got them by the balls. I was able to add more LEAPs today on the cheap...

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:11pm
Woods
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Morgan/Puplava SVM Interview

Financial Sense News Hour with someone from Silvercorp and Jim Puplava at 11:00AM PST this Friday - September 16, 2011 concerning SiverCorp (NYSE -SVM). Sorry, we do not have details on how to access the live feed. However, you can go here....

https://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/subscribe

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:25pm
Jasper Puddlemaker
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At least Rui was in Vancouver...

I'm just glad he was in Vancouver doing the interview. If the bad guys had been correct Rui probably would have been on a flight out of here by now.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 7:54am Jasper Puddlemaker
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Yeah, we made a BIG STINK

Yeah, we made a BIG STINK over slow response. As you probably know, anybody who is in the field of valuating mines considers the quality of management as one of their top criteria for purchasing a stock. How do you judge management behind a computer? You rely on those who have met with them that have a good track record and you look at management past performance. Likely, they have not been through something like this but crisis management and protecting a companies brandnd corporate image when being sabotaged would definitely be a sign of a nimble and fast thinking management. And their is indeed a playbook for these situations and no dirth of well documented case studies on handling corporate sabatoge.

You have to ask yourself could they have minimized damage to the stock if their response and denial had come out hours after the report? I certainly would have reconsidered my sell if they would have produced a statement within hours. Instead, I had to write to the editor of a newsletter for a comment who was in the process of contacting China. Sorry but perception in any business goes a long way. I want to know if something like this should happen in the future, how are they are going to handle it. It's just not the small investor but it's institutional investors as well.

I've also been looking at other metals newsletters and I took a one month trial subscription for https://www.metalaugmentor.com based on somebodies recommendation on this site. I probably won't be continuing it. I found others I like better. But they discuss the SVM situation. I paraphrase and summarize what I read.

-They just like Casey and others defend SVM and point out the amateurish accusations and optimistic about SVM's staunch defense.

-They have put out a forecast of a $10 baseline price by early next year with the caveat that silver price or equities don't "fall apart" Those are greater concerns for me as I've mentioend

-Their valuation report prior to the allegations was at a $10 baseline price

-They are also using various vertical call options at different prices for March for lower risk, leveraging any upside move and heding any downside move. Acknowledging some of these trades could move to zero. In another portfolio, they are using strong straight longs for simplicity.

-Finally, they leave open as questions, how deep is the shorts and what's their limit (answered on this forum), will Chinese government decide to invest money driving up share price, and with their stock buyback what is the companies limitations w/it's buyback?


Interesting that they put out a report and valuation of 18 top silver producers Silver Producers prior to the allegations in May. This is free to the public and no need to be a subscriber. https://www.metalaugmentor.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/New_York_Show_2011_Silver_Reports.pdf As you can see, it didn't make the top of it's list as a leveraged silver producer despite the low cost required to take silver out of the ground.

I'm looking through other newsletters to see if their buy rating has changed especially Trader Tracks which I should know by tomorrow. They had it as a buy with a price target of $16.00. My guess from the Al Korelin report that it would probably still be a buy but can't imagine the price target remains the same. These newsletters influence ALOT OF investors. So a change in rating or strategy could also effect the future price. There is alot more to look at that just whether the allegations are true or false.

Lastly, I'm wondering for those of you that visit other message boards if any of you saw a push of activity discussing this equity two or three months prior to these allegations. My working assumption is that if you want to successfully pull something like this off, you would try to push the stock price up months leading to the allegations. Things that make you go hmmm.

There is something that bothers me about how this thread got started. I won't say anymore.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 8:06am Green Lantern
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I also know the inherent

I also know the inherent additional risk that comes with investing in China based operations. I've worked for Chinese companies, I'm familiar with their business cultures, I worked for a Chinese company and I married a Chinese woman. So although this is a Canadian owned business, I definitely want a Chinese person leading the company to deal with government issues. However, there is an obvious trade off when your marketing is done in English speaking countries. I often tell my wife what I'm buying and I can tell you boy did she protest when I bought this one. Because she knows how business is conducted in China as do I. And if I was an investigator you'd better belief that I'd be looking either for a Chinese native or somebody who knows how business is conducted in China. I'll add that I love Chinese culture.

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 9:43am Green Lantern
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I listened to the Feng

I listened to the Feng interview. I feel bad for the guy. While I'm ranting, notice what he said about Dirty Rectums, I mean Muddy Waters. These are bottom feeders. YET, mainstream financial news media, bloomberg, business week, reuters etc... quotes them as an expert source creating the impression that these folks are experts. They obviously short stocks because they Probably have no other expertise or revenue stream except for harming the reputation of innocent people. Disgusting!

Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 9:59am
goldenbear
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Management of Perception

Is what we are looking for simply management of perceptions? Give me a break. Anything that SVM would have said hours after would have marginally affected the share price... but only real, substantive redress of the specific allegations with real numbers and evidence holds any real weight. And that's what they have heretofore done, IMHO. It took them a full day! If that means that they're a poorly run company then you should just be happy that you were able to get out of your position. As for me, I don't care about putting my money in a company that is "perceived" to be legitimate. I'm looking for data. Facts. Documentation. And the allegations don't pass those tests. This kind white collar crime is becoming business as usual HERE IN THE WEST! This is criminal activity, either on the part of shorts or SVM. I don't care about addressing Chinese culture, Chinese business practices, Chinese women here in this thread. All I care about is whether SVM is committing fraud. Bottom line... there has been nothing substantive to indicate that they are.

Be right and sit tight.

"An error does not become a mistake, until you refuse to correct it."
Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 10:32am
goldenbear
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Then by your rationale you

Then by your rationale you should sell silver and gold because it is poorly perceived. Just think about what you're saying. I personally think fundamentals are far more important. PERIOD. So we just buy the dips. Au, Ag, and now SVM. Good day, sir!

"An error does not become a mistake, until you refuse to correct it."
Fri, Sep 16, 2011 - 10:33am goldenbear
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"Is what we are looking for

"Is what we are looking for simply management of perceptions?"

No! That is by no means the only criteria which we should be investing in anything. And it's not what I said,. And if you believe there have been no material changes as just about everybody is stating, then why is the stock down? Because some bottom feeder created a false perception! And if you don't think perception can't kill a stock, at least for an extended time period, just ask the makers of Tylenol, Toyota or another . What you care about can't extrapolated into what others think. And what others think about determines the price of the stock which is in the basement why? Perception. And in my opinion, poorly managed perceptions by what looks like a nice guy.

And if perception had absolutely no bearing and only the facts were important than silver would be at a $100, gold $5000, the dollar would be gone and the stock market wouldn't be rising. All those prices are because of the perceptions people have given to them by the media. Markets are moved by non-tangibles like emotions. It often takes a long time, if ever, for people to realize the facts. Using fundamentals and P/E ratio's hasn't worked since Nixon took us off the gold standard. An ipod is just a fancy USB disk. The perception is much greater.

And if the business culture and politics mean nothing to you but only the amount of minerals in the ground, I have some good buys in Zimbabwe, S. Africa, Bolivia, Ecuador. By all means, determine what factors make something worth your while as I will for myself. And if sitting on this one is you choice, I hope you reach your target. Who knows maybe I'll come for the ride on the way up. But I'm fairly certain my 20% loss will be made back in two weeks in something else.