Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

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Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:14am
Jasper Puddlemaker
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Casey updated last night...

Summarizing: No evidence of fraud, and sees the attack as “opportunistic” and designed to manipulate the stock price.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:22am
dakota15
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I agree with Mouser, anything

I agree with Mouser, anything under $7.00 should be a safe play. Grabbed another 800 this morning and brought my average down to $7.58. Gamble... sure, but then again, so is life, with terrible odds. Thought I read that somewhere once...

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:33am
mouser
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alfredlittle.com has no

alfredlittle.com has no credibilty whatsoever imo, i looked at their previous short and distort agendas on DEER and CTE, and their allegations look hokey at best. There are no bonafide credentials attached to any person doing research for alfredlittle, they are simply a bunch of paid hacks, who couldnt read a financial report if their life depended on it. Or if they can, their intent is to distort what is written there.

Picking rocks off the side of the road and counting trucks while hiding near the milling site, is absolutely ridiculous. I have never heard of any real credible mining analysts using anything like that to suggest tonnage and ore content. These guys could easily have taken an XRF analyser and viewed SVM cores or even nuggets out of the mine on the conveyor, had they asked management. THEY elected to do this other bs on the sly, because they KNEW if they actually looked at the cores and ore coming off the conveyor, the results would have confirmed SVM stated ore grades.

They chose a method which would suit their agenda, to short and distort.

The fact that there is no one at alfredlittle willing to step up and appear in court vs DEER in that court case, and again none willing to give their identity in the SVM bash, makes these guys look like criminals. How anyone could put credence in hacks like these is totally amazing to me.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:35am
FalseParadigm
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Share buyback doesn't make sense

IF the allegations against SVM are true, then why the hell would they be buying back their shares? Why would their CEO be using his OWN money to buy the stock at these levels?

Just doesn't add up. Did Brian Moynihan use his own money to buy BAC under $7? No, he went to Buffett with his hand out and accepted $5 billion. Is BAC buying back any of their shares?

If SVM was guilty of wrong doing I don't think they'd be so transparent or eager to cooperate with the FBI, SEC, and Canadian SEC.

Also, I don't recall Sino-Forest reacting this way to Muddy Water's claims. Sure they set up a team to investigate their claims but did they go and publish all of their bank statements? Did they go and publish certified Chinese tax receipts? Did they invite investors to visit their operations and check for themselves only about 3 weeks after the allegations were made?

The fact that Alfredlittle and Mr. Anonymous refuse to come forward with their identity, coupled with their refusal to accept Feng's offer to both parties to cooperate with the ongoing investigations only goes to show who we're dealing with.

Muddy Waters tweeted they went short on SVM after Alfredlittle's report. Everyone took that news as Muddy Waters deciding to go short in response to the report...Really? Muddy Waters went short on the fly within minutes of reading the report? They've been short since late July probably when the SI began increasing. Confirming it via twitter was only done to magnify the panicked selling.

I honestly believe that all three parties are either the same or working together. The tone of both reports put out by Mr. Anonymous and Alfredlittle are too similar. And the fact that both websites give zero contact information (except for A-L's proxied email address) only reinforces that belief.

I think it's unlikely that SVM will shoot back up to $10 within the week, but there's no doubt that this stock will outperform everyone until it returns to fair value. Maybe the coming visit to their mine will be the catalyst for a big move to the upside.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:38am mouser
FalseParadigm
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mouser wrote: The fact that

mouser wrote:

The fact that there is no one at alfredlittle willing to step up and appear in court vs DEER in that court case, and again none willing to give their identity in the SVM bash, makes these guys look like criminals. How anyone could put credence in hacks like these is totally amazing to me.



That's the lone question mark though regarding SVM's share price. No one has stepped to the plate to face DEER in court, but the share price hasn't recovered at all. Hope the same doesn't happen here with SVM.
Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:46am mouser
Jasper Puddlemaker
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mouser wrote:Picking rocks

mouser wrote:

Picking rocks off the side of the road and counting trucks while hiding near the milling site, is absolutely ridiculous.

What? You mean you don't think that meets 43-101 standards?

I don't know how anyone can take this stuff seriously either. But I suppose it accomplished their purpose. When the price dropped to my lower limit I was out (that is what I have to do to be safe). But now I'm back in lower (not full position yet though).

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 11:48am Jasper Puddlemaker
FalseParadigm
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Jasper Puddlemaker

Jasper Puddlemaker wrote:
mouser wrote:

Picking rocks off the side of the road and counting trucks while hiding near the milling site, is absolutely ridiculous.

What? You mean you don't think that meets 43-101 standards?

I don't know how anyone can take this stuff seriously either. But I suppose it accomplished their purpose. When the price dropped to my lower limit I was out (that is what I have to do to be safe). But now I'm back in lower.



That's the equivalent of going to a BP gas station, filling your car with a gallon of gas, and then coming to the conclusion that BP doesn't have the oil reserves they claim.

Interesting to note that Simon Black still hasn't responded to my latest email sent yesterday at 10 AM. He was very quick to respond when the panicked selling was going on. This is the second time he's avoided answering my question about Alfredlittle's report failing to even mention tracking the high grade ore that goes directly from the mine to the smelter.

Simon,

Sorry but I think those are pretty weak responses.

First off, your team would have to analyze truckloads of the ore that's being taken to the mill to get adequate readings on silver content. And the fact that the report refuses to mention the lack of reporting on high grade ore being taken directly to the smelter is rather convenient.

Second, Alfredlittle has made Enron type allegations against SVM. Not only are they being accused of engaging in 5+ years of fraud, but you're also implying that all of the bank statements and certified Chinese tax receipts have to be doctored. The fact that SVM has been so transparent despite these allegations shows that they're pretty legit. Also, if SVM did doctor the Chinese tax receipts, they'd likely be vulnerable to criminal prosecution by the Chinese government; not a good thing considering your claims of your men being harassed by Chinese secret police.

Third, Alfredlittle.com has gone to great lengths to retain its anonymity. A-L is using a proxy internet client to shield itself from IP tracking. A-L claims not to be associated with Mr. Anonymous; funny because the letter put out by Mr. Anonymous is very similar in tone and language as the report A-L put out. If A-L is so confident in its reporting why would it be afraid of being tracked by IP address? I'm sure the FBI being involved in the investigation isn't a cause for concern.

I think A-L would gain much more credibility if it accepts SVM's offer to emerge from the shadows and work with the Canadian and US SEC and FBI and participate in their investigations.

Until this happens, this just appears to be a hit piece.

Regards.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 12:00pm FalseParadigm
rowdyboy
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SeverinSlade wrote:rowdyboy

SeverinSlade wrote:
rowdyboy wrote:

Hey Severin, was that you that called in to the Alex Jones show today to drop a take on the Silvercorp Metals anonymous short fraud?

Haha yeah that was me. I wanted to ask Jones a question but he was running short on time so he dropped the call after I got through the basics.

You're the only Severin I knew, so with the topic, I thought that was you. Good take by the way. All 3 points you made were good. Alex even mentioned wanting to interview Zero Hedge on the show. I have listened to AJ for 3 years, but have never called in.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 12:03pm rowdyboy
FalseParadigm
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The name is actually an

The name is actually an anagram I came up with. Re-arrange the letters of Severin Slade and you get Enslaved Rise. So it's not my actual name just FYI.

I love Alex and respect the hell out of him, but I get almost all of my important news from zerohedge. Alex tends to over-analyze some stories and rants. Zerohedge gives you the same basic news without the lengthy spin.

Only problem I have with AJ is that he pumps Midas Resources like crazy whenever gold and silver are peaking and then says nothing when everyone SHOULD be BTFD. Also the "loss leaders" for Midas are misleading too. Don't like the fact that AJ and Anderson represent silver dollars as 1 toz of silver (when they're .7734 toz of silver).

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 12:25pm FalseParadigm
rowdyboy
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SeverinSlade

Yeah, they are definitely trying to pay the bills. AJ provides free content, so he has very few paid subscribers compared to the millions that listen every week. I'm thinking about subscribing to his service. He covers the real news about the NWO that nobody else will report on.

Back on topic. I'm still holding my SVM accumulated over the past month. I do not have any dry powder, or I would buy this dip a little more. I will hold my core SVM and trade 20% on the swings going forward.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 12:38pm FalseParadigm
Bsong
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I heard you also! Small

I heard you also! Small world!

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 12:45pm
Bsong
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I subbed aj for support.

I subbed aj for support. Fearless voice!

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 12:48pm rowdyboy
FalseParadigm
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rowdyboy wrote: Yeah, they

rowdyboy wrote:

Yeah, they are definitely trying to pay the bills. AJ provides free content, so he has very few paid subscribers compared to the millions that listen every week. I'm thinking about subscribing to his service. He covers the real news about the NWO that nobody else will report on.

Back on topic. I'm still holding my SVM accumulated over the past month. I do not have any dry powder, or I would buy this dip a little more. I will hold my core SVM and trade 20% on the swings going forward.



I understand that. I have no problem with him plugging Midas, but I think it's a little unethical to lead his listeners to believe that a silver dollar is worth the spot price of 1 toz of silver. But whatever, like you said, he's one of the few that actually reports on the real news. Also appreciate his knowledge of REAL history.

I'm doing the same as you as far as any massive swings in a short time frame. But I'm in this long term unless credible news tells me otherwise.

Looking forward to SVM showcasing their mine in the coming weeks.
Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 1:33pm FalseParadigm
brad_pitts_betterlooking_brother
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S in S

"I honestly believe that all three parties are either the same or working together. The tone of both reports put out by Mr. Anonymous and Alfredlittle are too similar. And the fact that both websites give zero contact information (except for A-L's proxied email address) only reinforces that belief."

yep, i've thought the same and that was reinforced after re-listening to a carson block interview on cnbc done some time ago concerning sino forest. the wording used and tactics are eerily similar.

i worry that since this practice of beating down chinese stocks (most especially PM ones!) kind of aids the gov and the banks in their general purpose anyway that it will be forever before it's even given a sniff in court. so it appears svm is on its own for the most part. i think mgmnt has done about all they can to date and they do have a few more plays up their sleeve. will it be enough? don't know. but i am rooting for them and did not close out my position entirely. in fact i may be re-entering more once the time feels right (which should be very soon).

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 3:36pm
rowdyboy
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SVM - Rui Feng Video on BNN

Rui Feng video: https://watch.bnn.ca/#clip532771

He is not the easiest to understand, but good info on disputing the chinese short selling fraudsters. He is definitely angry, he mentioned next steps are getting the 3rd party audit results from KPMG, and pursuing charges against the anonymous short.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 4:04pm
dakota15
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Take-over Target

“I’m worried our company will now become the target of a takeover,” Feng said today in an a telephone interview. “I’m very concerned because compared to our peers, our stock should be C$15 to C$16.

According to Bloomberg, makes sense, a legitimate company trading at a mere pittance of where it should be.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-15/silvercorp-ceo-feng-says-miner-may-become-takeover-target-after-share-drop.html

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 4:05pm
ghost
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@mouser

Mouser, being in Canada I also looked at the TSX SVM options and even though you could probably buy the same calls at lower price, that market is really illiquid with large spreads, so I just stick with the US Jan 2013 ones which I think are the best and safest play out there.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 6:06pm rowdyboy
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SVM - Rui Feng Video on BNN

Mr. Feng needs to hire a PR specialist to conduct his interviews. It's great to see him personally defend the company but It was difficult to understand. He needs his message to be clear.

Long SVM Jan-12 $12 calls

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 6:46pm
Haole
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So...

... their trucks have a 30K lb capacity but they're generally overloading them to 40K which accounts for the decreased number of trucks? Did I hear that correctly? If he's publicizing his operation's unsafe work practices on international TV to rebut the "accusations" then what might be going on in the background? I'm not saying there is any "wrongdoing", "deception" or "fraud" going-on within the company, just that the piece on BNN didn't make me markedly any more comfortable about owning this company. I agree that he needs to either present someone more "media friendly" within the company to do press or hire someone. Essentially threatening to "come get" the guys that made the report(s) also validated AL's, etc. concerns of vindication. I realize the guy is pissed-off for one reason or another but threatening to "come get" someone is suspect to say the least.

Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 7:15pm Haole
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It is routine in mining to

It is routine in mining to load trucks beyond the specified capacity. If that's a criterion you're going to use to choose which mining companies to invest in, you're not going to be investing in any mining operation. Truck capacity as advertised by the manufacturer has as much to do with longevity as safety. Equipment is always in short supply. Trucks often have to be taken out of circulation simply because the wait can be quite long to replace tires. Trucks and all equipment are worked to the extremes in every busy mining operation.

I think it's a good thing that the company is going after the authors of the the various hit pieces. Makes perfect sense to me. Hunt them... especially when they specifically ask not to be hunted. I like Rui Feng just the way he is.