Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

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Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:47pm
Puregold
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Sold some at the pop over

Sold some at the pop over $9.10 (USA). Still holding the majority of the position, but the gap up at the open requires me to sell a bit at any daily move over 10% that starts with an upward gap. Booking profits is a good thing, especially at 10%+ in one day. Not touching any shares in the long-term position. Will be using profits from the trade today to buy physical.

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:49pm
OC15
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When

is the dividend date? Alot of shorts will want to get out before then right?

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:58pm (Reply to #403)
Puregold
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record date 9/28/2011 and

record date 9/28/2011 and payable date 10/21/2011

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 12:59pm (Reply to #403)
Puregold
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record date 9/28/2011 and

*duplicate*

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 1:45pm (Reply to #405)
ghost
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Wish I had bought more in the

Wish I had bought more in the 7's now... wonder if it'll ever get back down there legitimately. Only got 1500 shares so not much to book profits on for me.

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 2:21pm
dakota15
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I wonder how many shares the

I wonder how many shares the company bought back at the fall? Hopefully it was plenty because I doubt there is any looking back now. Could be wrong, but I doubt it...

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 3:32pm
ghost
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Seekingalpha article

https://seekingalpha.com/article/292389-silvercorp-proves-it-s-not-a-fraud

Look at the Chris Wu comments, claiming the documents SVM provided contain a lot of inconsistencies and suspicion. Strongly believes they are not legitimate but does not provide any specific example as to how he came up with those claims. For some reason I cannot post on seekingalpha to reply to his comments and I do not know how to read the Chinese documents to find out whether this guy's comments has any merit to it.

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 3:34pm (Reply to #407)
Jayhawk
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Congrats SVM holders for

Congrats SVM holders for weathering that BS storm.

Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 4:08pm (Reply to #402)
FalseParadigm
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Puregold wrote: Sold some at

Puregold wrote:

Sold some at the pop over $9.10 (USA). Still holding the majority of the position, but the gap up at the open requires me to sell a bit at any daily move over 10% that starts with an upward gap. Booking profits is a good thing, especially at 10%+ in one day. Not touching any shares in the long-term position. Will be using profits from the trade today to buy physical.



I did the same. Nearly a 17% move in two days. At some point we'll see some profit taking. Will re-buy the shares I sold if the price dips below $9.
Thu, Sep 8, 2011 - 11:47pm (Reply to #408)
infinite_easing
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Gefvert asks Wu, "Mr. Wu,

Gefvert asks Wu, "Mr. Wu, what inconsistent items are you referring to? I didn't see any. Name one and I'll check it out."

Wu does not respond. In his (or her) original post, there is this statement: "I don't have any hard proof to show SVM isn't legitimate yet, but this kind of instinct is what prompted me to short stocks like LFT."

In other words, he doesn't have any evidence, he has a feeling.

Yawn.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 1:14am
ghost
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Anyone notice the options

Anyone notice the options activity especially on the Oct puts side? SVM up 10% and the puts barely drop in value... what's up with that? Any options experts have an explanation?

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 1:15am
ghost
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double

sry double post

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 1:35am
mouser
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Dataexplorers

That site is now showing 25 million shares out on borrow, are peeps selling puts considered as borrowing shares for the options?

I dont see the short position as being that large, when looking at other sites, TSX and NYSE etc.

Really having a hard time believing any entity would be able to track all the short activity and keep it straight. In Canada now we have the different ATS systems some of which arent excited about giving data to the TSX. Most platforms dont include the trading of the ATS, only Stockwatch as far as i know actually has the real numbers on trading. TD , I trade , BMO, RBC etc all have the bogus numbers that dont include ATS. ON some stocks the ATS trading is much more than what shows on the TSX.

In the US there are the many dark pools , where trading takes place ( shorts as well i would imagine) but these arent shown on any trading normal people would see.

The real story is that retailer investors are treated like mushrooms , kept in the dark and fed BS.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 1:52am
mouser
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And this Chris WU idjit ,

And this Chris WU idjit , that claims inconsistencies... maybe he should have a chat with SVM management and the CFO before spouting that crap on the internet. Really these shortsellers get away with murder. Personally i believe ( as many of you know) naked shorters should be hung in the town square and stoned, i think about the only way the abuse will stop.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 8:33am
Silver Danny
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SVM PPS Fair Value Between $14.64-$15.89

SVM PPS Fair Value Between $14.64-$15.89


The average ratio between the SLV (Silver ETF) and SVM is around .36 to .39 with a median of .39 (that's what I would use since it discounts the manipulation that's been happening over the last couple of months (see the link for more)) so that puts the fair value of SVM at $15.89 at today's SLV price of 41.22. So by historical standards SVM is undervalued by $6.82 or SVM needs to rise 75% to reach its norm. See the link for more to double check my math. So, if SLV hits $50 PPS later this year SVM should be around $19.28 PPS or north of $20 PPS if the ratio reaches .45 like it has in the past(That's $22.50 btw)

Spreadsheet Link (Google Docs)

https://tiny.cc/7o89m

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 11:31am (Reply to #416)
dakota15
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I also doubt there are 25

I also doubt there are 25 million short, in fact the Data Explorers chart looks to have increased the position. I would think that if you are shorting the stock now it is because you see gold and silver heading south. SVM appears to now be trading in step with the PMs, which is how it should be... after it catches up to where it should be of course. I'm in for the double and holding strong.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 12:26pm
Green Lantern
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I purchased another Tranche

I purchased another Tranche on Tuesday at the opening. After the first couple upticks the lowest I could get it for was 7.90. It really went quick in the opening minutes.

However, I'm still eyeing NUX which is up nicely at 2.05 this morning. I think it was $1.93 on wednesday and dipped again before coming back up today. Did anybody step in or looking to step in. It could be a nice short term trade on the next dip.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 2:35pm (Reply to #402)
rowdyboy
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Puregold - looks like that was a good trade...

...you made at $9.10.

Looks like this may be tradeable between $9.15 top and $8.40 bottom, for an approximate 8% channel. I think I will keep playing it with 25% of my position. It still looks rowdy to the upside and downside with above average volume.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 3:59pm (Reply to #419)
Puregold
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rowdyboy wrote: ...you made

rowdyboy wrote:

...you made at $9.10.

Looks like this may be tradeable between $9.15 top and $8.40 bottom, for an approximate 8% channel. I think I will keep playing it with 25% of my position. It still looks rowdy to the upside and downside with above average volume.

The volatility is a gift to traders. I haven't reloaded. I was looking for a drop below $8.40 to start looking for an entry but missed it today - busy doing other things. I did put a buy in this morning below $8.20 good for the day. Obviously didn't get hit. My inclination in this kind of volatility is to wait for the gap to fill. Would love to see a gap down Monday morn taking price between $8-$8.20, but I don't always get what I want.

Fri, Sep 9, 2011 - 5:50pm (Reply to #420)
Green Lantern
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I want to thank all of you

I want to thank all of you expert traders for all of your contributions to this thread. Having already owned some SVM and intending to buy more, all this research and confidence boosting material is a boon.

I'm also posting as a quote a comment made on the blog this morning by sheeple in full. I think it is very useful as it is always difficult for me to guage good entry points as I am not technician or for that matter really at trader. One of my newsletters gave me an entry point of last Tuesday and it was correct. And now it's wait for the next entry point which could be next week. Obviously, if you are long and looking for $16.00 or higher, it's still a good investment at this level. But I'm trying to learn how to get better entry points even if I stay long. I'm interested in hearing your comments to sheeples blog post.

I am putting this here because that comment will be lost tomorrow and if somebody didn't read today, if they are like me, you're not going to go back and read an average of 260 blog comments. I don't get to them all anyway. Things such as work, family, sleep get in the way. There is some really good information on the comments that would be of greater service if people would use the forum. That way newbies can take advantage of them when they start reading it. When the site begins to grow, there will be no way that anybody that has a life will be able to read 500, 600 or more comments. If you really want to be of service and share your wisdom, do it in a place that will have better impact. Either way, I appreciate the comment.

Ok, BACK TO SVM!!!

From Sheeple

"As good as everyone here is at analysis and forecasting,I agree with the poster who said a while back that Turd should look at longer time frame charts....which he has most recently done in the latest caution about gold retesting the 1725 area. I think its wise. better to be anticipating silver drop to 38 than soaring to 48. or maybe it does both ,a repeat of last time. Can gold still fall back to 1700 and 1670 area? over the next few weeks?

It does appear there is a global currency war going on now. better than a shooting war I suppose. I wouldnt want to be stepping in front of it with too much eagerness to buy.

Great to see SVM recover from 7 to over 9 in the blink of an eye. Now theres a gap to fill around 8.40 and a 50% fib pullback around 8.10 and alot of pivot points and support around 8 to hold.

Iwouldnt want to buy more unless it falls below 8 ."

randomness