Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

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Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 1:29pm SushiSioux
Ticky Tembo
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Currencies v. Metals

"you agree that resource investing involves more than silver and gold?" (Sushi)

No. Gold is a currency not a resource. It has no resourceful value. Silver is also a currency but with industrial uses obviously can be considered a resource. I view both silver and gold as currency plays.

I appreciate that you want to invest in the broader metals market. There's nothing wrong with that. I focus solely on gold and silver because I strongly believe that the financial crisis the globe is first and foremost a currency crisis. That is why I invest in currencies, gold and silver.

With respect to AMY, I get that it's a play analagous to the American rare earth plays. But isn't it cheaper for the US to import manganese? I'm assuming that China produces it cheaper and more efficiently.

Tyranny grows strong because people remain silent.
Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 2:59pm RRJJ
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@RRJJ Could be that. I hope

@RRJJ Could be that. I hope that all companies start selling their silver direct to the public like Great Panther and First Majestic. A. It can make some of the bars collectibles B. They can bypass traditional ways to purchase (coin shops, web sites, etc.) C. It is a bit like advertising like you say. Meaning, "Hey I invest in the company why not buy silver there too." Or vice versa. The only other thing, and I guess I haven't researched it, is that First Majestic might have the Wall Street blessing. Have to check into their latest preso or see who is recommending the stock.

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 8:04pm TheGoodDoctor
SushiSioux
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TheGoodDoctor wrote: @RRJJ

TheGoodDoctor wrote:

@RRJJ Could be that. I hope that all companies start selling their silver direct to the public like Great Panther and First Majestic. A. It can make some of the bars collectibles B. They can bypass traditional ways to purchase (coin shops, web sites, etc.) C. It is a bit like advertising like you say. Meaning, "Hey I invest in the company why not buy silver there too." Or vice versa. The only other thing, and I guess I haven't researched it, is that First Majestic might have the Wall Street blessing. Have to check into their latest preso or see who is recommending the stock.

You can only hope => I bought Impact in no small part because I like their corporate logo =). would be great to see on a bar or coin.

I asked Great Panther about their retail store. The IR rep noted the bullion store not a significant thing for their bottom line (less than 1% revenues) and they view it as a promotion, with no intention of being a retail operation. I'd hazard a guess all the miners selling view it as such. all the coins appear to come through northwest mint, so quite possibly they are selling you silver from where ever northwest mint gets it => if you read the financials of these companies you'll get more information on this. usually they list if they have sales contracts concentrated in small number of parties.

retail buyers need to keep asking miners (IR departments) to do this. Aurcana intends to sell coins and bars as well.

Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 8:11pm SushiSioux
Sterling
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I could be wrong but I think

I could be wrong but I think Pan American supplies NWT mint with their silver bullion.

On another note, I emailed Endeavor Silver's IR a while back for an information packet, and much to my surprise, there was a 1oz EDR silver round in there when it arrived in the mail!

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Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 8:16pm Ticky Tembo
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Ticky Tembo wrote: With

Ticky Tembo wrote:

No. Gold is a currency not a resource. It has no resourceful value. Silver is also a currency but with industrial uses obviously can be considered a resource. I view both silver and gold as currency plays.

I can understand that perspective. there s a lot to be enjoyed about owning gold and silver and their miners. always appreciate the different reasons people have for their investments.

With respect to AMY, I get that it's a play analagous to the American rare earth plays. But isn't it cheaper for the US to import manganese? I'm assuming that China produces it cheaper and more efficiently.

Nope. 1) China has export duties and, not to be outdone, American has import duties.

Reaugh comments, “Our costs are going to be 44 cents a pound, way less than half of China’s, before the export duty. And South Africa’s costs are about $1.10. I imagine that manganese prices will start escalating from $1.60 now to $2.50 in the next year.” Costs will be so low for two reasons. First, because “Most of the ore is sandstone, and it breaks down readily, so we only hammer mill; we don’t need crushing.” Second, because the manganese will be easily leached from the ore using a patent-pending sulfurous acid process developed initially by the US Bureau of Mines in the 1940s.

LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION! (((((Not to mention whatever US government tax credits they'll get for being a critical/strategic mineral provider => ))))) plus they are working to lower costs of producing a quality product range:

2)pleased to announce it has signed a fourth Contribution Agreement with the National Research Council of Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program (NRC-IRAP) to continue the successful development of a hydrometallurgical process to extract and recover high purity manganese from lower grade domestic resources within North America. The success of that program has led to the development of a proprietary process that is the subject of an application for patent protection.

Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 10:40pm Sterling
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Sterling wrote: Quote:But it

Sterling wrote:
Quote:
But it is one of the lowest cost producers in the world for silver. I think it is THE lowest cost producer in the world.
Yep - they mine silver for a NEGATIVE cash cost!

FYI...Endeavour Silver (EXK) reported "Cash costs per oz. silver in Q1 2011 were negative US$ (7.49) and US$ ($2.14) in 2010." So SVM isn't the only company that can produce silver at negative cash costs. I like SVM but I think EXK has a better management team. I own both but in the long term I still believe EXK will outperform SVM but either way I'll win :)

Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 10:48pm wackzingo
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Dont know where you get your info

I follow most of these silver miners and only a very few have negative cash costs , Endeavor Silver was not one , at least according to their own sedar documents.

Endeavour Silver earns $485,000 (U.S.) in Q1 2011

2011-05-05 05:24 PT - News Release

Mr. Bradford Cooke reports

ENDEAVOUR SILVER REPORTS $14.5 MILLION ADJUSTED EARNINGS IN Q1, 2011, THANKS TO RECORD SILVER-GOLD PRODUCTION AND PRECIOUS METAL PRICES

Endeavour Silver Corp. released today its financial and operating results and unaudited financial statements for the first quarter 2011. Endeavour owns and operates two high-grade, underground, silver-gold mines in Mexico: the Guanacevi mines in Durango state, and the Guanajuato mines in Guanajuato state.

The company reported record adjusted earnings (a non-international-financial-reporting-standards measure) of $14.5-million (18 cents per share) in the first quarter 2011 (all figures in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted). Net earnings (an IFRS measure) were $485,000 and operating cash flow was $14.6-million from revenues totalling $35.4-million. Silver sales averaged $33.18 per ounce and the cash cost of production was $4.94 net of gold credits in first quarter 2011.

Highlights of first quarter 2011 (compared with first quarter 2010):

  • Adjusted earnings (non-IFRS measure) rose to $14.5-million (18 cents per share) compared with $1.1-million (see IFRS comment below);
  • Net earnings (IFRS measure) fell to $485,000 (one cent per share) compared with $6.7-million;
  • Operating cash flow jumped 425 per cent to $14.6-million;
  • Mine operating cash flow climbed 170 per cent to $24.5-million;
  • Revenues escalated 94 per cent to $35.4-million;
  • Silver production up 17 per cent to 900,133 ounces;
  • Gold production up 33 per cent to 5,008 ounces;
  • Silver equivalent production up 20 per cent to 1.1 million ounces (40:1 silver:gold ratio, no base metals);
  • Realized silver price up 96 per cent to $33.18 per ounce sold, realized gold price up 28 per cent to $1,413 per ounce sold;
  • Cash costs fell 23 per cent to $4.94 per ounce silver produced (net of gold credits).
Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 10:48pm Sterling
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Hmmm. How long ago did you do

Hmmm. How long ago did you do that? With Endeavour that would be cool to get one of those.

I know NWT Mint sells Pan American bars and rounds. Maybe NWT Mint makes them with silver supplied from Pan American? Not sure.

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Fri, Jun 24, 2011 - 11:54pm TheGoodDoctor
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It was back in February.  I

It was back in February. I emailed Hugh Clarke but Lana McCray was the person I corresponded with.

I found this shortly afterward:

https://custom.nwtmint.com/testimonial_endeavour.php

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Sat, Jun 25, 2011 - 12:32am
wackzingo
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In their annual report SVM

In their annual report SVM states:

In fiscal 2011, Ying Mine’s cash cost and total cost per ounce of silver were negative $8.30 and negative $7.20, respectively, an improvement from negative $6.66 and negative $5.79 a year ago. The lower cost was mainly due to higher by-product credits realized from higher lead and zinc prices.
They make no mention of negative cash costs at any other mines and there is no reason to believe this is or will continue to be the case at other mines. This is in a sense luck and good fortune that a mine just so happens to have enough by-products to lower the cost. The quote about Endeavour Silver (EXK) is accurate but like SVM only refers to one mine not their entire operations as a whole. You can find it directly on their website under the Guanajuato Project and many other press releases around the web.
Sat, Jun 25, 2011 - 8:19pm wackzingo
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Until this current Q the ONLY

Until this current Q the ONLY operating mine for SVM was the YING camp. BYP has come online in May , but as of the last update , SVM decided to get another contractor, and should be back up and running this summer.

The BYP mine is a gold mine , however, with lead and zinc byproducts which will be produced by an additional 1000 tpd operation within 18 months. What the costs per oz of GOLD from BYP will be down the road is dependent on many factors.

THE GC mine for SVM will be online within a year as well, and i do not believe it is projected as being cash cost negative, altho the overall operations of SVM including YING, GC and BYP, will still be very close to negative cash costs as a group with current metal prices and costs.

I do note that Endeavor had negative cash costs at their smaller mine at Guanajuato but there is very little of their proven and probable reserves there, the majority of the reserves reside at the higher cost Guanecevi mine as can be viewed in this table from the Endeavor Silver website.

Reserves and Resources (as of December 31, 2010)

Reserves Proven & Probable

Description

Tonnes

Ag g/t

Au g/t

Ag oz

Au oz

Proven

Guanacevi

576,000

313

0.62

5,796,000

11,400

Guanajuato

141,000

189

2.50

856,000

11,300

Total Proven

717,000

289

0.98

6,652,000

22,700

Probable

Guanacevi

815,800

237

0.40

6,219,000

10,500

Guanajuato

100,000

158

2.20

508,000

7,100

Total Probable

915,800

228

0.60

6,727,000

17,600

Total Proven & Probable

1,632,800

255

0.77

13,379,000

40,300

Sat, Jun 25, 2011 - 10:10pm mouser
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For Silvercorp, so excited

For Silvercorp, so excited for the gold mine to come online. When I saw the assays I was like "Woo Hoo! Gold Too!".

For Endeavour just the scratch on the surface. It's going to be awesome once they get more mines going and more exploration going too!

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - 4:58am
Ticky Tembo
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Message to All SVM Owners

I wanted to get all of your opinions on the effect of debt on silver mining stocks. The answer may depend on where you domicile. I'm not sure how many of you live in the US. I'm an American living in Switzerland.

A major event is set to explode in the US. The Fed will announce a deformed morphed QE3. But before that, the federal government will agree to raise its debt ceiling by more than $1.5 trillion to cover the deficit.

Two scenarios thrive: (1) the US defaults on sovereign debt; or (2) the US prints ~$2 trillion to monetize the debt.

What happens to silver mining stocks in US and China in each of these scenarios? Thanks for your thoughts.

Tyranny grows strong because people remain silent.
Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - 5:03am Ticky Tembo
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Charts from 2008

By the way, those charts I posted are from 2008. If you double all of the lines, you live in the present.

Tyranny grows strong because people remain silent.
Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - 5:20am Ticky Tembo
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Stocks

Ticky,not sure about anything,bought Silver Wheaton(SLW) and figured it as a sure bet. I have read that 1 share of this is worth somewhere around 5-12 oz of Silver,if you do the math this is an incredible stock,trading around $32.00 shr. Being shorted massively by JPM and fellow goons,arm of our guvment. Worth a look. Best. Jerry Garcia.

Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - 5:25am maravich44
Ticky Tembo
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SLW

I've owned SLW for 3 years. I don't really look at it, I just leave it.

I play miners.

Tyranny grows strong because people remain silent.
Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - 10:45am Ticky Tembo
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@TickyTembo. You are

@TickyTembo. You are forgetting the possibility of a partial default which seems to be the commentary in the media lately. A partial default could be either a lapse in interest payments or devalue the currency against gold.

To answer your question, silver miners should skyrocket. Just my opinion.

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Sun, Jun 26, 2011 - 6:48pm TheGoodDoctor
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Re:

TheGoodDoctor wrote:

@TickyTembo. You are forgetting the possibility of a partial default which seems to be the commentary in the media lately. A partial default could be either a lapse in interest payments or devalue the currency against gold.

To answer your question, silver miners should skyrocket. Just my opinion.

GoodDoctor, I think the fundamentals do indicate the miners should skyrocket, but if we have a full default (whatever your definition of "full" is), we may have a slingshot effect where the miners get dragged down by the market, then followed by a catapulting rise - maybe a V-shaped bottom? That's personally what I am hoping for since I still need to raise more fiat to go into the miners + phys lol. That's my 2 cents anyway.

Edit: My scenario is more for Ticky's case 1). For case 2), I think the bottom would occur before the obvious onset and declaration of gross debt monetization.

Mon, Jun 27, 2011 - 8:40am
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Thaughts of caution

I have been watching SVM for a little now and am tempted to buy. The main thing that is preventing me from buying is the strong connection between represented silver stocks and the normal market. I believe that the paper market is going to be in turmoil in the next few months and silver stocks including miners are going to go down with the market. Long term they will prevail yet I am waiting for this downward motion that I (am guessing) will happen before a long outlook buy. In the meantime I'm going to day trade these miners (not recommended) and hopefully not get caught in a tank. I'm not trying to take up an opposing argument just sharing my take on it. One thing is for sure it will be interesting to see where SVM goes in the next couple weeks.

Mon, Jun 27, 2011 - 1:44pm Dynamis
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Do you think the June 30

Do you think the June 30 dividend for shareholders on record is going to push the price up at all regardless of what the spot silver is doing?