Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

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Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:01am
jmsvett
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Trading in Europe/Frankfort

Svm is up 8 percent in above average trading. Do not know how significant that is with our market/trading overlap on Friday.

Jmsvett
Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:25am TheGoodDoctor
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TheGoodDoctor wrote: Funny

TheGoodDoctor wrote:

Funny you should mention that. I was thinking of doing the same thing. But maybe this week may be the better week to do it.

Hopefully, this is a much better week for svm. I just can't see the fraud angle for this company, but I've been wrong before.

GLTA

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:27am olderman
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olderman

olderman wrote:

https://www.pinnacledigest.com/blog/peppermillrick/silvercorp-metals-svm...

olderman

olderman, keep digging up these positive reports. We can use all the good information we can get.

Good luck

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:30am jmsvett
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jmsvett wrote:Svm is up 8

jmsvett wrote:
Svm is up 8 percent in above average trading. Do not know how significant that is with our market/trading overlap on Friday.

We'll take 8%, 10 would be even better. Let us know how it progresses during the day.

Good luck+

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 2:51pm
captaj
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missing something

I still must be missing something... why would short sellers target a company who has zero debt and easily verifiable bank accounts flush with money? I don't understand that kind of bet? I will be adding to my position this week, I am just wondering if there is something that I missed... or am I just paranoid

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 3:20pm
ReachWest
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SVM, PAGE and MOPE

I posted this in the ZERO Blog thread on Friday - but felt I should repost in the SVM Forum - so here it is, for what little it may be worth ..

--

I'm going to throw this out there - and - I'm sure what I'm about to state is nothing more than speculative conspiratorial BS, but here goes, anyway:

I found Turd's info regarding PAGE of great interest and agree that PAGE (when it gets up and running) stands to upset the current COMEX and all their daily shenanigans. PAGE will definitely be a significant threat to TPTB and as others here have postulated, perhaps TPTB will devise a devious plan to stop PAGE before it actually gets up and running. Afterall, the stakes are high.

If one were to try to stop PAGE, how would they go about doing so? Perhaps the first step would be to discredit the operation - or taking one step back - why not discredit the entire Chinese PM market. (MOPE as Santa calls it).

How to do this? Hmmm.

Perhaps one of the first steps would be to discredit publicly traded Chinese PM miners - cast doubt on them - attempt to make the company appear toxic - Oh, and as an added bonus, short the hell out of the stock as longs flee. This would not be too difficult to do - the recent Sino-Forest fiasco has investors wary of Chinese stocks to begin with. (Anonymous letter sent to media outlets??)

If a company could be taken down in this manner TPTB would succeed in casting a significant black cloud over the entire Chinese PM industry - this in turn would be a good first step to casting doubt on PAGE.

As I said - it's probably all mad conspiracy stuff - but - stranger things are happening every day in the PM markets.

---

As an aside, here is an interesting article from 2006 regarding a tour of the SVM Ying mine in Henan Province. Judging from the article the mine was certainly real in '06.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 4:21pm
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Oh I love this

To me this seems liken one of those gift opportunities. Either these guys are unscrupulous frauds (difficult to envisage, given management track record, generous dividends and share buybacks) or they are one extremely profitable company and this situation will inevitably result in one spectacular short squeeze in coming weeks. I, for one, take E(x)>>>>=0.5 where x is the event that company is genuinely a cash producing silver miner as opposed to a fraud. Much >=0.5. Intend to procure more OTM long dated calls as expeditiously as possible. Oh, how I hope the share price doesn't jump on up on Tuesday....man I will buy calls...

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 4:40pm
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Has anybody looked at New

Has anybody looked at New Pacific Metals, Silvercorp is the majority shareholder. It has no debt and recently purchased a silver/gold project up in Alaska. One analyst has them going up 25% over the next couple months or sooner. And the chart looks prime for an entrance this week with the V-shape dip between April and August. Anybody have any thoughts?

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 5:16pm Green Lantern
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Calling mr Gneiss

Hey Mr Gneiss NUX, New Pacific Metals, as Green Lantern brings up, is one I've had my eye on. What do you think o the prospects of them ultimately becoming a mine (or two, as per exploration projects)? They recently hit 1280 grams silver over 1.58m and have had good gold intercepts at Godell project They only aim to be in production a few years out, but if silver hits a frenzy within 3 years, and if SVM proves it's mettle and survives it's current debacles, this could be a good speculative expiration play, no? Rui Feng is the CEO, 80 million FD, But it's exciting (but potentially overpriced ?) Yukon resources that according to the company shouldn't take too much capital to start developing and get into production before they concentrate on expanding resources. https://www.newpacificmetals.com/_resources/presentation/NUX_presentatio...

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 7:23pm
rowdyboy
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...back in to SVM

I'm back in to SVM over the past couple of weeks. I love 50% discounts on quality merchandise! I never thought I would see them valued at this level again.

I first bought SVM around Sept 2009 at $4.70 range. I road it to March 2011 and sold at $14.62 range. Then rolled in to other silver miners.

I always keep an eye on SVM, read their financials, ready to pounce on a good entry point. I consider SVM right up there with AG, and Silver Wheaton as the highest quality silver plays. I trade those along with USSIF.

When SVM was taken down by the shorts, I took another position at $8.50 range, then $8 range, then doubled down at $7.70 range. I thought that there would be some volatility due to the shorts piling on, so I played it by setting a limit sell at $9.25 on half my shares and it got taken out at the end of August. With the profits, I purchased more at $7.70 again.

My goal is to accumulate more shares at these prices because I believe the true vale of SVM is closer to $15 range at todays spot price. I am not worried over the false accusations from the anonymous short. I have done my own due diligence over the past 2 years, have been on their quarterly conference calls, and also read what people I trust say about the stock (most have been on site).

By the end of the year, I think this is a double from here. My exit point will most likely be in December, depending on the run up in stock price and the situation at that time. Then looking for more bargains. Did I mention I love 50% discounts on quality merchandise?

Thanks for all the info posted here and links. I will participate in this SVM forum now that I'm back in.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 7:35pm
olderman
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SVM & NUX - New Pacific Metals

NUX is 22% owned by SVM. I note that it got taken down by 14% last Friday. But on low volume. I guess some of the NUX holders think they might get tarred with same brush. Now thinking NUX is one hell of a buy too.

olderman

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 7:53pm captaj
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You are assuming tha the

You are assuming tha the short position has not started to get out of their positions. I would check out tomorrow data explorers website to see if the shorts get out of their positions. That will be telling.

Jmsvett
Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:12pm Green Lantern
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Reply about NUX

Yes have looked at and chatted with management and IR of NUX at the last gold show i attended . Rui Feng is also CEO of this company, and they got a steal of a deal buying up the Tagish lake play which has some proven gold and silver if I remember correctly.

Not too far to the south of Tagish Lake is SVM's Silvertip project, and my guess is that at some point these two projects may merge and become SVM's north american mining show.

After that beatdown NUX looks due for a rebound, they are affiliated to FENG but are not a chinese operation listed on the TSX. Their main operation is in the YUKON Their CEO RUI Feng lives in Vancouver.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:28pm Green Lantern
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@green lantern re: NUX.V

New Pacific Metals is not in production yet, so for me, thats a non-starter. Too many difficulties and delays getting there. Having viewed the web site and Aug2 presentation, they have some good potential in the future, but that and the stock price will get you a cup of coffee.

It only trades on the TSX Venture Exchange, no US exposure, and the volume is only 50,000 shares daily average, therefore not enough liquidity for me.

I want real metal being taken out of the ground in increasing volume in this bull market. For my strategy SVM will double soon (maybe 6 months or less) so I am accumulating at these discounted prices.

I am also accumulating USSIF over the past year. Its market cap is an undervalued at $215 million, with silver production at 2.5 million oz, with a hedge expiring Jan 1, 2012, a second mine coming on line in 2012, and they are moving to the big board TSX and also AMEX this fall (currently listed on Pink Sheets and TSX Venture). See what happened to GPL when they went to the big board. In my opinion, USSIF is also a double by end of this year. They are doing a 1 for 5 reverse split which will reduce outstanding shares to 68 million and therefore increase the earnings per share to around 40 cents per share annually. Eric Sprott has been accumulating over the past 6 months, and recently filed a 10% ownership and is still buying after that announcement.

Of course, do you own due diligence and realize if the stock market crashes, miners may go down. I convert miner profits on a regular basis.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 8:51pm ReachWest
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@ReachWest on theory

ReachWest, is this an original theory of yours? If so, I like the way you think! I actually was reading about PAGE and researching, and thought the Anglo/American cartel will not like this development.

I think your theory could possibly have legs. I did read and hear from a PM analyst that Owebama Administration does call on the brokers and hedgies to make "recommendations" on their margin hikes and shorting strategies. I also have done research on the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). So I think they do intervene and collude on strategies for the outcomes they want. These hedge funds are huge dollars of private wealth that are unregulated. I can envision their short strategy to create FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt) on the Chinese stocks and financial community.

If this is true, we know they have an unlimited supply of FRNs to do battle. That is worrisome. But I always look for false things in the market so I can play the other side.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 9:06pm rowdyboy
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Here was my theory from the

Here was my theory from the weekend that can go along with the one you guys are discussing. What happens if the US catches wind of what the date is for the SAFE to get full up and running and decide to revalue gold at the $7000 Jim Rickards thinks is possible? See link below. Would that screw the SAFE up right quick?

This seems like it would hurt China pretty bad on their dollar holdings. And it would hurt the RMB conversions to buy gold in dollars at least. This could also suck up more of the dollars reserves into China's hands in a way kind of double stuffing them. It would also prevent those that are trying to access the RMB markets from getting a lot of it to hold.

Just speculating here. Am I right in my thoughts? And more so......

What happens to gold? What happens to silver? What happens to the RMB? We know the dollar just got devalued big time if this happens. All other boats float? Do gold and silver go above their revaluation? Or over correct? What happens to the GSR? What happens to miners? Does this cause the panic into gold and silver related assets?

This has just been bugging me a bit since I read about the SAFE in detail and watched those videos by Turk.

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/15_R...

“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.” Norm Franz
Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 9:06pm rowdyboy
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rowdyboy wrote: By the end

rowdyboy wrote:

By the end of the year, I think this is a double from here. My exit point will most likely be in December, depending on the run up in stock price and the situation at that time. Then looking for more bargains. Did I mention I love 50% discounts on quality merchandise?

Well I agree that we are likely going to see a run up in the mines, hopefully starting out of the gate tomorrow morning as September is traditionally very bullish and has always been for silver. And it's generally not my style to pull the trigger and then out of a play in two or three months. But I think I might play trader for the producers in light of looming black swan events.

At about 4:00 minutes, he is warning and has been warning his subscribers of a potential crash at the end of September depending on how the European credit crisis pans out. https://www.kereport.com/2011/09/05/3614/

I also agree with rowdyboy about availing oneself to the upside of the producers at this time. However, as Rick Rule pointed out in a teleconference we are in a 9 year discovery cycle for many juniors and it's likely this year we are going to see some juniors go from .30 to $3.00 but you have to stomach the volatility.

I think tomorrow is going to be the beginning of a very very interesting rest of the year. I'm picking up 1 tranche of SVM fer sure. And while I don't think NUX will double, a small 25% gain in the next two months is expected and it is a good price. I might be out of both in four weeks and some other producers I'm in.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 9:48pm Green Lantern
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Green Lantern

My profile is aggressive growth, so its not for everyone. I have never been 100% out of miners. I am usually 100% invested, unless there is a reason. I do sell 25% of positions if I think we are at a high point, and wait for a dip to repurchase (ala Stewart Thompson). I work a strategy of getting sets of 2 comparable miners and swinging from one to the other depending on runups, which is the better value or which is on sale. That takes some risk out of my equation, along with taking some profits. I think long term at this price SVM is a lower risk with higher upside than most silver producers.

I rode SLW from $13 to $46 without trading at all. Then started lightening up on the way down for better value plays like AG. I took positions in AG at $9, and sold all of it at $19.26 within 6 months or so, then rolled it in to other miners on sale. I still love AG, I am just in some better values right now, like SVM. SVM and AG are pairs I trade. Also GPL and USSIF are pairs I use. I am in USSIF right now because I belive it is a better value.

However, as you stated, I always look out for a potential market crash, especially Sept-Oct, and would respond appropriately. I am not married to any stock. I can and did ride some 20% plus declines on miners, but they corrected quickly. I just realize that is why I am in them. They go up and down quickly. My goal is 100% return per year in each stock (I don't always get there, many war wounds). And to get that return, I seek out volatile stocks with good volume for uptrends in this bull market. I also try to make sure that I don't get bucked off the bull right before an uptrend. 80% of the gains will likely come in 20% of the time. You gotta be in it to win it, without being married to it.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 10:20pm
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SVM is like any other equity

SVM is like any other equity play -- a boatload of risk in a highly volatile environment. The short players may have walked into a trap and are trying to get out; volume Friday suggest some did, which ironically served the company's interest in buying back stock.

Overall, I am not losing sleep over juvenile allegations made by a coward. Agree with those who foresee a double. That said, there is a chance that bringing this issue to ground could take a few months.

Mon, Sep 5, 2011 - 10:21pm TheGoodDoctor
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The Good Doctor - revaluation

I read the article from Rickards (I follow KWN daily) re: Revaluing Gold to $7,000 per oz. Realize that although I have a BS in Economics, what I see going on today was not part of my study. This out of control government can and will do whatever it wants. However, America can't set a price control on Gold for the whole world. Really what I think Rickards means is specifically a dollar devaluation. It would now cost you and me $7,000 US per oz, but the price denominated in other currencies could be unchanged. So can the US government debase the dollar against gold? Well I would argue they already are. This move would just be out in the open. And silver would follow up to its normal relative ratio in my opinion.

I think this would be an unlikely scenario because we are in an election cycle, and Barry would be detested and unelectable. I think they are going to stick with stealth debasement and the resulting rampant inflation.

Most of the public has no idea what's going on.

randomness