Looks like the doors have been busted off of the new site!
I would like to start a discussion on the LONG TERM price targets for Silver. This topic never seemed to get much traction on the old blog. People such as GATA talk about silver getting to nose-bleed highs (as much as $6,000/oz!) and others such as Ted Butler say it will get very high but don't give a target, and others still see the GSR getting into single digits or silver even being on parity with gold.
I am strictly into the physical, and from everything I have studied about silver such targets seem possible. Even if the economy and society does NOT implode but we continue to muddle through somehow, the potential for silver seems astronomical. I would love to see the thoughts on this from everyone.
Price targets may be skewed because of the reference to fiat paper. I think we can look just at world population and it's a no brainer that the 'value' of silver can only go up. The United States, population wise, is tiny, 300-400 million people. We have over 2.5 Billion people coming online into the modern age with money to burn. Plus these populations historically have a fondness for precious metals. I definately agree the potential for silver is astronomical.
Eric: That is a great question. I am a physical stacker, and not at all a paper player. Like you, I cannot seem to get a definitive grasp on a fair and reasonable answer as to silver's upward price targets. I suppose a lot depends on whether there is a major disruption, like a COMEX default, a currency collapse, or a war, or some other world event.
I read endlessmountain ( https://thesilverlog.blogspot.com/ ) and he had a chart showing a hyperparabolic move to the upside for late fall 2011. It was around $100 or better, from what I remember. However, if silver gets that valuable, then I fear more that it will be in some form of the Mad Max scenario, and I really do not want silver to get that high. I would be happy just to have silver stay in a rising channel, steadily gaining traction as the US dollar devalues.
One way I can try to predict the upward price is to simply draw a channel on a daily chart. Start at the low from August 2010, make a parallel line matching the tops, except for the April 2011 rise, and it seems to be a fairly stable, upwardly rising channel. I can live with that.
If for some reason silver gets really going, then I just don't see it getting to a 1:1 ratio without serious, and I mean serious societal change. If it ever were to get close to being that bad, I am out of here with my family, and I will be taking whatever stockpiles I can carry with me as I implement my bug out plan. The plan includes a destiny on a tropical beach, come what may.
Alternatively, should silver approach the historical ration, 16:1, then I do believe it is wise to swap the silver for gold, or perhaps arable farmland. So, a price target for silver really then is just relative to the price of gold and whether societal collapse is imminent or not. Maybe that is why there have been no real predictions?
I believe silver gets to $50 or better by Sep. 2011. After that, price moves of 10% should be normal, both up and down. At that point, I do believe it will be wise to track the ratio, and be nimble as far as swapping out for gold.
Just my $0.02.
Best of luck to all!
Based on history, silver has at least doubled with each new war, if not immediately, then eventually. Since we're in three wars now (arguably five if you count Yemen and that other ME country), well . . .
Recently, both John Hathaway and Jim Sinclair declared that gold could hit five-digits (around $12,500/oz). If you believe Eric Sprott, the gold-to-silver ratio should decline to its historical average of around 16:1 in the future.
If these guys are in the ballpark, that would leave us with a silver price of around $781/oz (potentially). I'll take it.
Let's also remember that Mike Maloney believes that the PURCHASING POWER of silver will be many multiples of where it stands currently. I'm long and strong in physical silver and PSLV. Keep accumulating people.
Thanks, those are all good points. I too get a bit worried about what society looks like with silver in the high hundreds or even four digits. But one of the reasons I like silver is all of it's high tech applications and the coming scarcity - even if society works through the economic difficulties (I have no idea how) silver can still go to the moon. I also just recently read mike maloney's book on silver, so I am hoping when silver really does go parabolic and the stock market crashes, that may be the time to cash out of physical and go into equities. But that is probably a long way off! Eric #2
One thing I noticed in the silver price chart. There was a marked change in slope at around September of 2010 (look at a 5-year chart of SLV here, for example:
This is about the exact time that Eric Sprott began buying up physical silver for PSLV. I wonder if this had the same effect on silver prices as the Hunt Brothers way back when. Of course, it had an amplifying effect as others noticed the steeper price rise, and jumped in for the ride.
The relevant issue now is, ES has stopped buying silver for PSLV, but apparently is starting additional physical silver hedge funds.
If you look at the G:S ratio, you see that the ratio was never at this level until way back at the time of the Hunt brothers. So to me, anyway, this may be the reason why the price of silver suddenly changed its slope and the G:S ratio suddenly feel to levels not seen in many years.