For those of you who like to catch falling knives, I thought I would start a thread for those of us playing the short-side of the metals game (for today, at least). My reasons for shorting silver now (10:55 EST):
1. I see resistance at 36, and again at 36.25... creating an easy benchmark, for me- spot goes above this or the chart doesn't look like I want, I exit my short to fight another day
2. We are near enough to these resistance levels that the risk / reward looks good to me.
3. Short term, I see more downside potential than upside.
Jost FYI this is a day / swing trade for me, depending on what the market does and what the charts look like near closeing. Anyone else want to share thoughts? Good luck trading, everyone!
Looking to ride ZSL from 36/36.20 to 34.40. Took a small starter position at 35.65 but reward over the next few days looks good to me. Good luck.
When I originally posted, spot was 35.90 and ZSL was 17.90- these were the points at which I opened my position. After 1 hour we now have some space to work in- spot is 35.50 and ZSL is 18.33. Everyone has their own style of trading, but personally, when I am playing the short side this early 'cushion' is important. I now have breathing room so that I can exit this trade risk-free if the chart turns around- if silver catches a bid, I'll sell at 35.90 and get out without losing fiat. Many people would play it differently, but this seems to work for me - enough of the time, anyway!
I am debating what target I should look for and when to close this one out- some people here who I respect think the near-term downside will be 32 or 31... but there seems to be support at 34.50 or so also. Day trade or swing trade on this one?
Good trading friends!
Pining, since you entered short and don't mind closing on a break-even, I'd TP at 32 as a stink. Meanwhile I'd monitor the area just under 35 to see price behavior there to determine if u close. If down urge is strong hold and again observe 50c increments to the downside.
Good strategy, I appreciate the advice- I was thinking along similar lines. My chart-fu is nothing like Turd's, but the 5-min forex is showing a very nice head-and-shoulders here since the 9:30 open, so I think the 'down urge' will be solid if we head towards 35. By the way, it is nice to see that some form of your green hair made it to the new site! Good trading, partner!
For those riding the ZSL train, it looks like our trade is still in play- we keep bouncing off the spot 35.25 area, but nothing decisive to the upside either. I don't know about you but I like the action so far- if we can break through there I would think we may get a waterfall or two, at least down to support at 34.80 and perhaps farther.
Would be interested in hearing how you are playing this- anyone want to share strategies, stops, or targets?
Good trading, friends! -Pining
Pining I do the short side as well but with extra caution as I believe it's still a secular bull market and I don't want to eat my shorts.
In a given week I'll shift positions around ZSL and AGQ and frequently hold both like a spread.
It looks like you'll be starting a new thread every day. I support that as it can get cluttered and these 2x ETF's only trade during day hours.
I had wondered if there would be enough interest in this topic to justify that, but it doesn't seem there is... Oh well. I closed my silver short position yesterday at the close, and will wait in cash to see how this shakes out. You lightening up here or still short? Good luck Happy!
I got thinking about this thread, maybe weekly then.
I just picked up some more ZSL on this spike. Thinking we'll see $35.35 again before end of trading.
No I don't want to go into the weekend very short. The rise above $36 is just too likely.
I have both made and lost a boatload on ZSL for a net near wash. I wrote "ZSL never again" 100 times. But one of these days....
Right now I'm out of paper silver. Would like to accumulate some ASE if we get a summer swoon in the spot market.
hope i am posting this to the correct forum riding the zsl train
i am new to trading 2x leveraged etf i normally trade options on the slv or gld but have become more concerned with their corruption
I was hoping someone out there could help me I noticed most here seem to day or swing trade zsl I am not a day trader and was wondering if anyone thinks trading zsl out 4 to 6 months is a good idea I am bullish silver and was thinking of buying JAN 2012 puts does anyone think this is a good idea or should I just stick with slv
thanks in advance for any help
@lakemike- I think you are correct that most here seem to use the 2x ETFs for day or swing trades. This is just my 2cents, but many here are worried about the potential for a Comex default, and TF has talked about this many times. The bottom line for me is that I don't think anyone truly knows what would happen to paper silver vehicles in that case, but clearly there would be potential for complete loss, making such longer term bets way too risky for me. If everything held together, you could really clean up if the expected Fall rally occured... But that is a big "if" ! You might run this past the guys at Pailins trading corner in the silver forum. Best of luck! -Pining
I have been day trading ZSL, but I remember reading this article that might be of interest to you.
thanks pining for your response think I will do that lakemike
loneranger thanks for posting that it really helped me to better understand ZSL
Jumped into a small ZSL position for the first time on Tuesday and sold all other positions due to the market punishing the pm's on news of "being close" to a deal on the debt ceiling. Got in at $13.61 and am hoping to make a little money off of it when an official deal is reached, hopefully tomorrow.
Well, silver and gold are on a tear right now thanks to no debt ceiling deal prior to the Asian market opening, hopefully that loses steam. Glad I kept ZSL to a small position going into the weekend, still going to hold those shares until the 2nd of August since it appears to be finding some support lately, right at the bottom set in late April prior to the 5 margin hike smack down.
Am I the only one that kept their seat on the ZSL train this weekend? Figured the price has been sticking near my buy price while silver has been range-bound as well near $40 for the most part of the week. It's a teeter-totter just waiting for either a debt ceiling deal or for August 2nd to arrive before seeing which one falls. Placed a stop @ $12.20 giving me only a -10% downside risk, curious to see how this trade plays out.
Got stopped out @ $12.67 on Wednesday only to buy back the next day @ $13.60, 1 cent under my original buy-in price. Still a small speculative play, didn't have the courage to buy any of my favorite miners today in fear of further downside so I'm taking the ZSL train for one more weekend trip. The small loss in it so far isn't Jack compared to what I would have lost had I stuck with miners instead of dumping them almost two weeks ago. Now it's waiting time to see what happens on the open Sunday night and then see what kind of damage Benny can do to the markets on Tuesday.