Peak Oil

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King Kenny
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Peak Oil

I would be interested to hear other peoples views on this theory.

Watching Michael Ruppert's "Collapse" persuaded me that buying some physical gold would be a good idea. And eventually led me here!

Will global oil production follow Hubberts curve? If so, when will we hit peak oil? 

Edited by admin on 11/08/2014 - 05:18
cris
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The Long Emergency

The concept of Peak Oil is the one which gives an overall framework to my worldview.  I understand that many consider this controversial, but to me it is simply math.  We appear to have prob already reached peak production.  We have plenty of oil left, but it will just be more expensive to obtain.

Given the fact that oil is an integral part of literally everything that is important in 21st century life, from food to transportation to medicine to communication, more expensive oil (energy) makes it harder and harder to achieve growth.

Our economic system is predicated on growth.  Hence, our current problems.

Kunstler wrote about all of this quite presciently in 2004-2005 in his book The Long Emergency.  Ruppert writes about the same themes.

Unfortunately, it seems we are screwed unless we turn decisively, and successfully, to development of alternative energies.

And I just don't think we have the political will or the leadership to do this.  I for one had hopes Obama could achieve this, but he has turned out to be just another politician, rather than a transformative one. 

I think we are running out of time.

It is always appealing when one concept can simultaneously explain many events.  I think Peak Oil does that.

silverbleve
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Peak Oil, Peak Silver

I have been very interested in the way Turd draws connections between the price of crude and the price of silver, silver seems like just one of many natural resources we as a species have squandered and wasted away until it is too late to do anything about it. 

Ok, IF peak oil is real, as I believe it is, it makes sense that the powers that be are aware of it too, but what are they doing about it? Nothing of course. Maybe it is an indirect form of population control? Surely there will be a decline on population growth as the price of energy itself rises. Just thinking about loud. Love the new site!!

I think $50 silver will also have a similarly devastating effect on our planet as $150 a barrel oil. Think of all the electronics we will no longer be able to produce at that point. (pic somewhat related, its my dream bunker)

cris
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Anyone from Chico...

btw, one of the things I like about this site is seeing where people are from.

SilverBleve hails from Chico, CA -- in my experience anyone from Chico is AOK.

But I must disagree my friend with you assessment that $50 silver will be an economically devastating event.

One of the beauties of silver, as opposed to oil, is that it is used in such small amounts, that its demand is as the economists would say INELASTIC.  The overall cost of silver per item is so small, if the price goes up, it just gets absorbed.  No one will stop making computers, or other electronic gizmos because the gew grams os silver needed have gone up in price, bc in the overall scheme of things, silver is a tiny fraction of the cost of manufacturing.

And that quality is VERY bullish for silver...

CYM
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This is an excellent summary

This is an excellent summary on the peak oil issue.  It's a 56 page PDF that explains peak oil and its implications without all the hyperbole and fear mongering.  

http://www.feasta.org/documents/risk_resilience/Tipping_Point.pdf

Eric Original
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Peak Everything

I'm a confirmed Peak Oiler. I'm also convinced that the huge runup in population and economic growth over the last hundred fifty years or so is totally correlated with energy consumption per capita.  

No more growth in energy means no more economic growth.  No more economic growth means, in the aggregate, that debts can't be paid.  

Throughout history, when societies have faced a situation where they can't get any real growth, they opt for nominal growth instead.  Nominal growth (real plus inflation) can pay off the debts and keep things afloat.

That's the policy we have today.  Can't get real growth because of peak oil, settle for nominal growth.  Get nominal growth by forcing negative real interest rates.  Negative real interest rates are good for gold and silver.

That's how I get from peak oil to precious metals.

Sorry to ramble like this.  There's a lot more to it than that, but those are the nuts and bolts of my big picture worldview.

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Strobe
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Peak oil... if or when?

Kenny I believe that peak oil is an inevitability rather than a theoretical supposition, unless one considers that the abiotic theory of oil production will prove to be valid.  I'll make the assumption that dead biological matter + heat + pressure = oil.

I also think that oil companies should embrace the idea openly, mainly because it implies that their product will increase in value significantly once we're on the back side of the Hubbert curve.  Every production field of a certain age will see production drop off, which is an illustration of the peak oil theory on a micro scale.  Add all those fields together and you get the peak oil point for various regions.  It's a simple statistic that the USA is producing less oil annually than it did in 1970.  Unless we believe that production will rise again to 10 million barrels per day some time in the future, that's our answer.

Economists can probably explain how peak oil - and peak everything - can be avoided, but I can't.

Now, when people talk about oil and gold/silver in connected terms, I think we're getting closer to some answers.  What we're really saying about gold or silver is that it can't be counterfeited.  And it takes a real effort to extract it.  Energy.  We're trying to value things in terms of energy, rather than fiat currency.

Thanks for the bunker schematic SilverBleve!

prana
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Start Prepping Now?

I too am convinced of Peak Oil & in fact, that we are in the very early stages of post-Peak Oil life. 

Besides Ruppert, Chris Martenson and Dimitry Orlov are also 2 advocates who offer infallible arguments.... and actionable ideas. Chris is a scientist who moved his family from a swanky Santa Monica beachside house to a farm inland. They have food storage, timberland for fuel, raise chickens, goats, have facilities for charging and storing electricity. Dimitry is a wise engineer who saw what happened in the Soviet Union + sees what is going to happen here. So he lives on a sailboat and teaches himself how to fix stuff himself.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

I was so over-confident because I had my bullion stash....until Dimitry asked a simple question: what good will bullion be when there are no fossil fuels to buy? So while both those guys have their bullion stash, they are also prepping the basics. 

Here is an astute observation which was revealed to me: Saudi Arabia is supposed to be the USA's biggest supplier. They keep assuring everyone that their oilfields have plenty left. Well Keppel is the world's top builder of deep-sea oilrigs. You'd think their No. 1 customer would be Petrobras of Brazil? No. There are 120 such rigs off the coast of Saudi Arabia. 

Eric Original
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Good Point, prana NObody goes

Good Point, prana

NObody goes to deep water unless they have to.

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Strobe
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can't eat gold

Thanks for the Orlov link prana.  I suggest Martenson's Crash Course online to anyone who's interested.

Don't know why it's not more widely recognised, but USA's number 1 oil supplier is Canada, by far.  Mexico is number 2.  The reducing imports from terrorist states rhetoric is mostly sabre rattling.

jumblies
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Good Point, prana NObody goes

Eric Original wrote:

Good Point, prana

NObody goes to deep water unless they have to.

Just ask OBL

Eric Original
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lol !

lol !

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prana
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Running Dry

Canada: 95% of Canada's oil production is from sand deposits in Alberta. This is difficult and needs a lot of energy to extract. As oil prices rise -- and it becomes less worthwhile to extract -- production volumes will likely fall.

Mexico: Oilfields have passed peak. Mexico will not be USA's no.2 supplier for long.

Saudi Arabia: 3rd biggest supplier to USA but catching up with Mexico....except that we believe it's fields are also running out

Time to get my trusty bicycle out!

tmosley
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I suggest all peak oilers

I suggest all peak oilers have a look at this: http://www.matse.psu.edu/news/ionicliquids

Oil production is about to explode with this technology.  Oil sands will be nearly as easy to produce as the old fields where you punched a hole in the ground and it came out on its own.  Hell, you could wash this stuff over a parking lot and get useable oil out of it.

God's gift to oil production.

We've got a few decades left, at least, before we reach peak oil.  We will have lots of new technology to deal with it by then.  Even if it were happening in the next decade, the technology we have roaring down the pike will ensure a sustainable future.

Eric Original
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tmosely Let's hope you are

tmosely

Let's hope you are right.  It would be a good thing for humanity.

Just because I'm a peak oiler, and am invested accordingly, doesn't mean that I'm HOPING for disaster.  Quite the contrary.

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tmosley
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Peak Oil

This should increase production, so as long as you aren't long the futures, instead owning production should be ok.

I would look for this product to enter the market in 2-5 years (I know how big of a pain in the ass it is to get a product to market in this economy-though it should be easier for oil technologies).  

Eric Original
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I'm long the more pure play

I'm long the more pure play oilsands producers.  SU, CVE, CNQ, COSWF.  Sound like if this comes to pass it would mostly help these companies and not do nearly so much for conventional oils.  

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Gold Nugget
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75% of total oil is already

75% of total oil is already gone.  we are well past peak.

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prana
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Exacerbating the Problem

As if we did not have enough problems.....

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/news/national/2011/june/14/national-14-06-2011-005.html

tmosley
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Incorrect.  That estimate

Incorrect.  That estimate does not count the rather large amount of oil remaining in existing oil wells said to be "dry" (ie firmly adhered to rock and sand), nor does it count the countless fields of crap the is totally irretrievable today, but will become marginally productive with this technology.

Christ, this tech is so good, it makes oil spill cleanup PROFITABLE, by selling the oil that they separate from the sand!

silversalmon
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Glad to see so many Peak

Glad to see so many Peak oilers! love this site. Personally in regard to the ionic fluid, I'm not a techno optimist, after working at Google,and working with the renewable energy folks. Imagine, no one except one guy even understood peak oil and the implications. Any whoo, i want to see the EROEI ( Energy Returned On Energy Invested) on this technology, then I'll be a believer. When this guy said it took no ENERGY I SMELLED BS and Hyperbole. Even lifting a freaking spoon to your mouth requires energy. Either he's stupid, a liar, or misspoke, but he LOST A LOT OF credibility with me. 

I do hope you're right. I've been preparing for Peak oil for a wide, but now I want to settle down with a gal on a farm and live a conflict free life. if Peak oil happens, it's anyone's guess. TMOSLEY, may you be right and I'm FULL OF SH*T! Seriously! Show me the EROEI!

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