Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:27pm
SSK
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Homework for tonight: pour

Homework for tonight: pour over the charts for the best set-ups. Identify the new leaders. And open a bottle of the good stuff.

Gotta say that NUGT at 3X offers one helluva vehicle to play the next run up (if indeed the run has begun). NUGT closed up 18.44% after breaching 20% earlier.

Think of it this way: NUGT is EXK x3.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:27pm
SilverWealth
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gunnery sargent SSK

Good trading today. When we fly over Berlin in my bouncing Betty I want you in the swivel seat behind the 50 caliber as my chief Tail Gunner!

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:35pm (Reply to #15945)
Eric Original
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SSK wrote: And open a bottle

SSK wrote:

And open a bottle of the good stuff.

Nailed it there, buddy.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:42pm
SSK
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Hey Eric, Just exiting HL

Hey Eric,

Just exiting HL with a sliver of honor is cause enough for celebration.

SW, I wouldn't fly with anyone else.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:46pm
Sunnyboy
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Nice call at 1653 SDS

SDS,

Thanks, was in the dog house at lunch, ready to party tonight, up 6000% up, back from the dead. Thanks to Palin for the R1 and confirmation and thanks to TA for the timing, btw, the 4am dump is entirely related to my bowel movements...1725 next? BIG moves, what are the odds JD and BM are sitting down right now?

Woof

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:52pm
sixdollarsilver
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No worries Sunnyboy

Just taken more profit @ 1710/33.25.

Ride natty ride!

Starting to shift into MEGA BULL mode... Wary of pull-backs, this fed fighter nibbles on little dips and buys big on big dips, selling at tops. I project 2 months of good times at least. Au 2100 anyone?

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:53pm
redwood
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Didn't listen to my call

Didn't listen to my call (once again), missed the surge, but still managed a reasonable trade. C'est la vie. There will always be more opportunities.....

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 4:59pm
SilverWealth
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S&P

ES futures measure first target to 1330 to 1333 off some pretty clear impulse waves imo.

Could get there by morning as latecomers pile in but its a strong impulse wave up.

Will play some overnight and then if it fails will add into dips. Not getting overconfident. Just acknowledging these impulse waves, when they hardly pullback they can be quite bullish.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 5:18pm (Reply to #15875)
bernard
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My recommendation is if you

My recommendation is if you are going to watch like a hawk, forget ZSL and stocks altogether, and look at options. They are much more volatile, and also you can only lose what you put in. A great way to hedge / gamble / profit if you have the stomach for big moves.

tonym9 wrote:

perfect. home today. was planning on watching the action like a hawk/trading either way. BAD weather...real bad. Puked my position at a .80 a share loss, scared will lose power and will get trapped on FOMC news. I say no QE announcements, will be bearish for metals short term, but can't risk not having electricity. Damn, of all days. Was looking forward to being positioned the right way on FOMC day. Thought about setting stops but the one and only time I've done that I HATED it. ughhh.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 5:30pm
Titus Andronicus
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Missed the action, but I did pretty well.

I missed all the action today as I was taking my father to the doctor, but I did pretty well.

I sold all my gold last night and bought back half at a good price at 10am EST. I missed the show, so I wasn't able to buy back my other half of my gold position until finding the price was already at $1690. Not optimal, but I'll take it.

I still have my silver long position I opened a couple weeks ago. Sure glad about that.

I am with SSK and SW and definitely think this move is for real. (Hope I'm not putting words in their mouths.)

Nothing is for 100%, of course.

I think I'll sit on my longs and probably I'll forego the "London Fix short". Not 100% sure yet. It worked great last night, and it might work great before OE. But more likely I'll just add longs to any deep drop.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 5:33pm
pailin
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FastMoney

Getting gushy on SLV right now. Calls 2:1 to puts today. Gotta figure folks were reading that action and playing it too? But I'll leave that break down to the options guys here...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 5:45pm
bernard
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Pailin, I personally reduced

Pailin, I personally reduced my exposure from 50 contracts to 25 at the close, and am sitting on cash overnight. I bought these Feb 33 calls for .29 8 days ago and unloaded for $1.00 each at 3:50. I think the action today is very encouraging and is follow through of the initial breakout. If you are like me and you follow /si on a 1 minute chart overnight, you will see they almost always hit around 3-4 am Eastern, and I expect the same. So I am setting my alarm for 9:25 am and plan to scale back into my position into what I hope will be a morning sell off or carry over from overnight Blythe attack. For instance, last night they managed to knock /si as low as $31.50 in pre-market trading. With a high of $33.40 for the day thats a range of $1.90 (5.6%) again. Today the /si traded 49,620 contracts which is over 9,000 more than 3 days ago on the initial spike. There is momentum behind this, and still a lot of commercial short. So I think they will continue to attack in the pre-market less liquid hours where they get the most bang for their buck (about 200 contracts sold in a 1 minute night attack can drive as much as a half a percent off the price. Mind you this costs only about $4.6 million in margin), and we will see the market drive higher during the day as more and more spec money gets encouraged by the action. I can tell you that from my sources at the bullion dealers, the public is NOT BUYING this rally. So this move is probably the precursor (aka smart money flow) to something much bigger when the disillusioned public goes crawling back in at $42.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 6:14pm
tonym9
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Thanks for the suggestion

Thanks for the suggestion Bestever. Just not what I'm skilled to do. I'm a rookie and just trying to get my feet under me with regular trading. Options are something that I would eventually like to play though. I think having a defined strike price and time for the move would be a good place for me to gravitate to at some point. The set up is in my wheel house. Just don't know enough about it right now.

Weather prevented some moves today. Might be for the best. I was wrong on my directional call. This move does look very very impressive. Does it have legs? Who the hell knows.

I'm thinking about picking up some PSLV and sitting for a while. I'm still bearish due to Euro but damn...fighting the tape ???

I'm confused by the last week of action. Very confused.

NONE OF THE FOMC NEWS WAS NEW. Yes, extended to 2014. But we knew we were getting low rates for long periods. I don't understand the move based on that info. Have to re-eval.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 6:19pm
redwood
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ok. I'm following atlee's

ok. I'm following atlee's lead from last week cause I'm also pissed off with myself today (though temporarily and this will help). Just for record keeping here are my posts in the last 24 hours. But I didn't follow through. Let this be a lesson nobody else has to learn over and over again. ********************************** January 24, 2012 - 4:58 pm What if this FOMC, OE is all smoke and mirrors and silver sky rockets by week's end. Usually when you see pullbacks like today, its what follows very soon thereafter. ********************************** January 25, 2012 - 9:57am

I think by next week we're going to see all this reverse. I agree this is a bear trap.

**********************************

January 25, 2012 - 10:10am

Yes I've also noticed this trend on OE and the reversal is on either on the day or day after. This is not a time to sell if you're in. Next week is also the first week of the month and I have also noted the first 2 weeks are kinder to the metals than the last 2 of each month. It's tied to OE. One of the reasons I expect a turnaround next week.

*********************************

January 25, 2012 - 11:15am

I'm just going to put it out there because I have this persistent nagging feeling that today will be different from other FOMC meetings. For example the bond market has already digested the idea that nothing will come from FOMC today. I agree nothing will come today, so I don't know.

*********************************

Rant off.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 6:28pm (Reply to #15956)
pailin
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bestever wrote: If you are

bestever wrote:

If you are like me and you follow /si on a 1 minute chart overnight, you will see they almost always hit around 3-4 am Eastern, and I expect the same.

I follow 5 min but same difference. 3am in my new alarm clock. Sucks but I like holding onto my gains. Like Titus, not feeling playing the am short, but we'll see how it looks then. Definitely moving out of my longs then in anticipation of bad behavior.

Last spring, I sold XAG (forex silver) flat 3 am, then bought tranches in at 7 am, 8:20 am, 10 am, 1pm. Every single day (after I identified the pattern). Every once in a while I played short 3/4/5 am and covered at 7 am. That was hit or miss, was never very comfortable being short. Anyway, I far outperformed buy/hold March-June. The only nasty bit of business was May 1 hit at 6:05 pm. Why couldn't they wait until 4 am? :)

Looks like we're back in business, so it's 3 am M-F for me now. Zombie-zone. And lots of cat naps.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 7:45pm
SilverWealth
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Redwood

Don't beat yourself up. Sounds to me in my amateur way like your subconscious mind is trying to dialogue and have a say in your conscious mind decisions. Either that or the left and right hemispheres could be at odds. Sometimes relaxing classical music of a certain rhythm can harmonize all that. I like lyric Bill Evans for that at times and Bach or Baroque too but that's just me.

Regardless I certainly have seen things in the past off intuition that I then did not trade with or go with. I think we all do that frequently.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 7:56pm
redwood
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Thanks SW.  Appreciate it,

Thanks SW. Appreciate it, but it is something I sincerely need to address, its getting old already. I don't mind small oversights, its the big ones I have to pay attention to. But you're right I am predominantly right brain and it seldom fails me. Just wonder how long it will take me to learn. Take heed everyone. It's an expensive flaw.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 8:15pm (Reply to #15957)
plunder
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euphoria!

tonym9 wrote:

NONE OF THE FOMC NEWS WAS NEW. Yes, extended to 2014. But we knew we were getting low rates for long periods.

The Fed's objective today was to have NO IMPACT. If they could have canceled the meeting then they would have. Openly doing nothing would have been a big disappointment, so the FOMC used what they considered their weakest tool and announced ZIRP to 2014. Gold took off, so Bernanke headed to the microphones to cool it down with "well it's more of a guideline than a commitment, really." That is NOTHING.

That's not to say that the metals move isn't for real, and good for everyone who pounced on it today. But we already had ZIRP, and no new commitments were made today.

If the gains reverse over the next week, then this is the last time that Bernanke's "ZIRP extension language" will work. you can only go to the well so many times. It's a market test of how much leverage they still have.

My limit order got hit for SLV puts late this afternoon, so I guess I am short overnight. Lately my bets have been like Stolper's so i'll probably be helping to pay for the party tomorrow.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 8:30pm (Reply to #15961)
plunder
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Hey redwood - no kidding, you

Hey redwood - no kidding, you have my sympathies and I did something similar today. Was sitting eating lunch with my coworker and waiting for the FOMC minutes, as soon as I saw "zirp 2014" I even explained to him "watch silver skyrocket on this netdania chart"

But I didn't make any bets. I was expecting no new language in that announcement and it didn't even occur to me to adapt to what I just saw. I even announced it out loud, then I went back to work. Maybe I was too preoccupied, I don't know. I thought about it when driving home after work and man, was I steamed. Like rico said, that was easy money. it was obvious and I was looking right at it while it happened, and I know how to capitalize on a move like that. And I did nothing. Stoo-pid.

Wed, Jan 25, 2012 - 8:45pm
redwood
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Ya' know plunder in this

Ya' know plunder in this business, it's those brief moments of lucidity you have to pounce on and some times you don't have a lot of time. Like you I work too, and quite honestly my work is serious enough I can't let trading preoccupations cloud my thinking. That's why when you have moments like that, seize them and have the faith that it's the risk you take to make a reasonable trade. It's really not that a great risk when you're pulling from deep within. I will continue to practice and it sounds like maybe you should too. Thanks, it helps to know I'm in good company.

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