Pailin's Trading Corner

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Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:01pm
redwood
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Here in Canada we have nice

Here in Canada we have nice balmy weather at 7 degrees Celsius (approx. 40 F). Very green. Never seen late January with so much lush vegetation. My redwoods are loving it.

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:02pm (Reply to #15721)
Eric Original
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SSK wrote: Still, the scale

SSK wrote:

Still, the scale back CHK news is inherently negative.

Sorry old pal, but you are upside down and backwards on that one. The CHK news is the beginning of the end of the Nat Gas oversupply that has been in the works for a couple of years now.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:06pm
redwood
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Bought some PSLV.  Near its

Bought some PSLV. Near its 52 wk low and as Pailin said the premium is a steal.

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:13pm (Reply to #15726)
Rico
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Eric Original wrote: SSK

Eric Original wrote:
SSK wrote:

Still, the scale back CHK news is inherently negative.

Sorry old pal, but you are upside down and backwards on that one. The CHK news is the beginning of the end of the Nat Gas oversupply that has been in the works for a couple of years now.

10-4, Eric. The announcement sounded to me like McClendon telling everyone to go fuck themselves

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:14pm
redwood
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http://online.wsj.com/article

https://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240529702037185045771784522565663...

If WSJ forecasts accurately, then you may be right atlee.

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:21pm (Reply to #15726)
Rico
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Eric Original wrote: SSK

Eric Original wrote:
SSK wrote:

Still, the scale back CHK news is inherently negative.

Sorry old pal, but you are upside down and backwards on that one. The CHK news is the beginning of the end of the Nat Gas oversupply that has been in the works for a couple of years now.

10-4, Eric. The announcement sounded to me like McClendon telling everyone to go fuck themselves

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:21pm
l'idiot du village
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Eric O

Everything in a mess....will hit 40 by weekend... It is OE week btw Eric, in case you'd forgotten..

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:30pm
SilverWealth
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measurements

Gold is measuring higher and Silver too but may not be tomorrow. If not I will take the opportunity to layer in lower. Meanwhile the Capone trade is in, courtesy of Titus. GDXJ had its very customary selldown in the afternoon. Layering in with that and all the usual suspects. Who knows?

Many of the World's markets seem to be anticipating money printing and are breaking up from depressed charts that were formerly signaling deflation. Now, not so and that trend is reversing. May have been a classic bait and switch by the Goldman produced financial media. Create a mood. Sell it. Shakeout participants. I am no genius. I cannot say. I believe AAPL reports tommorrow right?

Wave counts look higher after breakout above 1300 and the spike today in S&P I am charting up to 1328 now but don't quote me on it.

Tuesday remains a mystery to me. It could reverse down for a turnaround or it could be Happy. Either way I will try to respond.

Seasonally February is the biggest for Silver. When it starts to go it goes and it forces chasing like a prom queen thats been drinking and then stripped off her panties for the class dance under a spotlight at midnight. I have to consider if she is going to put out or not. We've had 5 months of dry hump in Silver haven't we? Not much to take home and dream about.

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:30pm (Reply to #15731)
dirk
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The vix keeps dropping. The

The vix keeps dropping. The sails keep flapping in the wind. The bottom of my bottle of rum is starting to show. I need a paddle.

Where does it end? When we value a grain of gold like a grain of sand...
Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 4:36pm
SilverWealth
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some info on World stuff

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 5:33pm
redwood
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nasdaq after hours

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 7:29pm
redwood
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Just in case we start calling somebody else an alarmist

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 7:40pm
Cú Chulainn
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Hubbartt takes profit

sent out a 25 Sell Silver signal, sees a correction coming

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 8:23pm
Titus Andronicus
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Recent performance of the gold "time-of-day" trade.

The average daily price action in gold over the full year of 2011. (I posted this previously):

Based on this I figured trying to do the trade in the following way:

short: 5am - 10am EST

long: 2:30pm - 5am EST

Using these times, the monthly performance for all the months of 2011 is shown in this graph (which I posted previously) :

The yellow bar is the combined long+short return, while the blue bar is the return of a pure long position.

The bottom line of this trade was that with about $15k-$20k of capital (needed for initial margin and room for initial losses of a GC contract), the annual profits were around $115k!!! That's almost 1000% ROI! Not only that, but during the year the trade was never in the red -- later loses were much less than already-booked profits.

OK. But that is in the past. How about most recently?

Let's look at the averaged daily price action of gold during November and December 2011, and the first weeks of January 2012.

(The following $ figures are assuming a position of a single 100 oz Comex GC contract).

  1. November, 2011: There were two modestly losing months in 2011, and this was one of them -- losing $4,140. (Actually there were 3 losing months, but the third was only slightly negative). The "London Fix Short" trade lost money in this month. The NY Afternoon / Asia long trade also lost money (unless you sold before midnight).
  2. December 2011: This chart looks almost the opposite of November. This was a good month, gaining $13,300.
  3. January 2012: So far, this month has been excellent! Earning over $10,000 on a single GC contract. The "London Fix Short" did OK, but the Asian hours is where the serious money was made. This trade so far has done better than being strictly long, but not much better.

Based on this I would definitely consider that the "time-of-day" trade is still very much active and working.

This gold "time-of-day" trade has not always been profitable. It really started going crazy after March 2009. That will be the subject of my next post.

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 8:30pm (Reply to #15738)
pailin
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Titus Andronicus

Titus Andronicus wrote:

...the annual profits were around $3.33!!!

Shhh. Let's try to keep this thing a bit on the DL :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 8:34pm
pailin
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Daily Pivot Points

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 1649.71 1656.48 1668.11 1674.88 1686.51 1693.28 1704.91
Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot Points R1 R2 R3
Classic 30.93 31.36 31.89 32.33 32.86 33.3 33.83
To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 8:40pm
Jager06
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Sentiment indicator

As I play catch up on everyones' posts after a long day at work, I am thinking about the board sentiments. Seems a little mixed right now, although a couple heavy hitters seem to have come out in opposition to Turd.

I find it interesting to see the sentiment and then watch the price. I actually time my physical buys this way sometimes. Everyone is bullish, I am stacking cash. Everyone is bearish, I am going to the coin store. By holding physical, I can't lose, but it gives me a way to participate in my own little way.

There are a lot of smart people in the room, and I value what all of you have to say. Maybe we could petition Turd to put up an indicator, just a thumbs up/ down, or some green and red arrows.

Then when you post, you put your sentiment indicator along with your post. Think silver is going to run? Give yourself a little green arrow as you type in the distaste for the EE.

Going down in your opinion? Hit the red arrow to post your pride in Turd's latest rant....

And so on.

I think the benefits are nearly instant access to smart guy sentiments and maybe even a charting doodad to overlay The Corner's overall sentiment with a daily price chart. How interesting would that be? I for one would love to compare the sentiment of The Corner with price action. It would definitely be a way to make the board even more interesting, and even garner some kudos when we hit it right.

Just thinking out loud.

Best Wishes,

Jager06

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 8:44pm
redwood
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Jager06

Thanks for your suggestion, but everyone here is so smart (present company not necessarily included) that they can figure out the sentiment quite clearly don't you think? We have enough to pay attention to.

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 9:23pm (Reply to #15742)
Jager06
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Redwood...

Your absolutely correct. My simplistic thinking was more for fun and having a way to chart the overall success of the Corner over the long term, assuming anyone would even use such a device.

But in retrospect, it might be a good tool for tracking mistakes in sentiment and applying the lessons learned to improve future trades, and perhaps even get a feel for the headfakes thrown in by the EE chart painting.

I don't mind throwing out stupid ideas once in a while and getting put in my place. A zero defect participation is zero participation, so I will take comfort in being a defective participant.

Mon, Jan 23, 2012 - 9:23pm
SSK
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Lot of natty gas MOPE out

Lot of natty gas MOPE out there today. FIrst the CHK announcement:

"Chesapeake, the nation's second-largest natural-gas producer, said it will cut production 8 percent. That means the company would produce the same or slightly less natural gas in 2012 than it did in 2011. Chesapeake produces about 9 percent of the nation's natural gas."

https://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57364194/energy-dept-cuts-estima...

SO you have the number 2 producer cutting back 8 percent of the 9 percent it represents nationwide. Shrug. What is Exxon gonna do? Southwestern? EOG?

Next you have the US Energy Dept cutting the Marcellus shale reserves in half. Same day nat gas rebounds. Only to be outdone by the entire country's shale reserves being halved:

"About 141 trillion cubic feet of gas can be recovered from the Marcellus shale using current technology, down from the previous estimate of 410 trillion, the department said today in its Annual Energy Outlook. About 482 trillion cubic feet can be produced from shale basins across the U.S., down 42 percent from 827 trillion in last year’s outlook."

How's that for a MOPE haircut?

This may be short to mid-term positve for CHK, but I don't see how UNG rebounds and holds in even the short term. They haven't even scratched the surface in the grand scheme of their frack plans, and they have already a massive supply balloon of hot air. It's called a glut. And there will be a glut for the foreseeable future unless they can gin up demand with nat gas cars, LNG exports or coal plant replacements.

My money will be on the short side. Maybe not tomorrow. But soon.

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