Some of you may remember my tale of buying physical silver last week. I took a buddy that fought with me in Iraq to my favorite coin store and hung out with a great guy there, the owner whose name is Howard.
Howard was a chess champion who played against the Soviets in the 80's and had been collecting and trading coins and precious metals since he was 6 years old. Excellent conversationalist and well worth listening to his well thought out views. He was also totally down with the silver manipulation, economic BS and was an asset to those who were trying to get some stability built into their lives.
I think you all know where this is going. I was Howard's last customer, and wanted to share little bit of a pretty cool guy with some pretty cool folks here too. Not everyone lurking here makes a difference here. Sometimes the difference is made one handshake, one conversation, one friend at a time.
Best wishes to you all, and Thanks Howard, wherever you are buddy.
Théros, trýgos, pólemos
That volume info you post is critical news. Netdania shows dead volume. I can't post it here (don't know how) but if you go to netdania.com and pull up silver spot USD you'll see the no volume move. Your info is a direct contradiction to that info. BIG difference. Click the volume icon at the top right of the chart.
Keep the thoughts coming.
I need to start back data checking netdania. I've been lazy and just watching one chart flipping between time periods with overlays. Might have burned me. A strong volume move and I would have gotten out to re-eval later when ZSL started to tank and silver was rocketing up. Volume data is a big piece of the puzzle for me when I'm daytrading between appointments....hmmmm.
Whenever there is a huge % change in one day whether it's up or down you are going to get higher than average volume in stocks and options that track the underlying. Especially for Cartel controlled playthings like the SLV.
The increase in participation on the options side when the underlying makes a big move especially the call side doesn't necessarily mean it's bullish. Calls were traded much more and heavily probably a combination of closing out profitable positions, short covering, writing calls... who knows?
NGD, KGC, HL all had noticeable spikes in volume and bullish bets on call options for Jan/Feb at one point or another in Nov/Dec... look what's happened to their prices since.
If the surge in price was really due to a single big buyer like Sprott going all out and buying loads of futures around the same time for his future offering, good for him and those who took advantage of the spike. But unless big and new money decides to enter the silver futures market, who's going to join the party right after Silver has run up 5% in one day and is approaching very strong resistance (other than dumb money & retailers)? And after the latest COT Silver report which is quite bearish with Commercials starting to pile in the shorts, I'm not sure that's very enticing to start going long at this point. JMO.
After being kidnapped by time bandits and taken to Fema Camp 16 brave Kitty has allegedly escaped. After several weeks struggle finally fooling the guards disguised as an armour plated fish brave Kitty is now struggling fighting prehistoric monsters and floating iced donuts. Last seen moving alone through the thick jungle back towards civilization and the PM love train.
Perfidious Albion wrote:
NICE. I love Joyner's work. Laziness cost me getting in early when paintings were $800 about 7-8 yrs back.
This is the best article I've read in weeks--a first-rate piece of work, so different from the usual internet "experts". Work out for yourselves what the PM implications are.
I second that recommendation. But bring your lunch with you and be prepared to spend some time and pay attention.
It is not light reading but well worth the time. IMO.
I had to rejuvenate some brain cells I burned last night and reread certain parts more than once! LOL!
Whoa...print it out, grab a pen, make some notes. Damn good article. Will need to re-read it later.
We do live in very interesting times.
Best reality show on the planet.
€ looked ugly early, but coming back now. WTI dropped to 97.50, copper down, silver &gold down just a bit. Looks as if Hercules did not clean out the stables this weekend; will remain on his to-do list.
This is potentially a really chaotic week ahead. My plan is to use call options on SLV to bet on a silver bull market. My thinking is the move up on Friday broke thru the trendline of Oct-Dec lows, currently near $31.5 (SLV=30.6). The EURO also made a significant move up on Thursday.
Tomorrow at about 9am EST, if Kitco Ag is in the $31.5-32 range, I'm going to place orders to buy the SLV JLY 35 Calls at $2.80 or better. If filled, I'll hold until the Friday SLV low (29.59) is broken. If not filled, I will still be looking to buy as long as the Ag=$31.5 price isn't breached.
I would like comments from those experienced in trading options on SLV. But not so much on comments on whether to trade paper metals.
And by comments I mean, whether the month or strike is optimal.
Disclosure: I'm long metal and SLV and APR 30 Calls on SLV. Also just bought FXE to play the EURO.
Good trading to all
All reversed. WTI back over 98. Silver & Gold looking strong.
and very sobering when it's finally understood by the bleating masses. Must find more vodka now...
ranger: that's fine if you want to make a bet on a silver bull market with SLV calls. There's no way to advise if the strike and expiration are 'optimal' because that all depends on your risk tolerance and what you think will happen between now and July (magnitude and timing of move). It's basically the same bet that you already have, just medium risk. Your SLV shares are lowest risk, April 30 calls would be highest and July 35s would be in between.
Example: say that you think SLV will make a reasonably orderly $10 climb between now and July. Then you could buy your July 35 calls, keep your moneyed April 30s, and sell (write) some February calls at a strike in-between (say $33). That locks in profits, if it's not to $33 by February then you keep the premium. If it goes above 33 before Feb. expiration, then just sell the april 30s and buy back the feb calls (close the spread) for $300 apiece plus remaining april premium.
IF you think it's going up a couple of dollars soon then you could just add to your april calls. There are a million things that you could do, only you can answer whether it's 'optimal.'
By the way, july35SLV calls closed at 2.07 ask , delta 40. a $2.80 bid will get hit for sure unless SLV goes up a couple dollars overnight. Maybe just set a market order with a condition of SLV <$31.50 if your trading platform allows it, sounds like that's what you want to do anyways.
I think they could still run to 1680/33 so I'm leaving a little with stops under today's lows.
Still holding euro and NG because... I like pain I guess - what an idiot.
No, seriously, I see euro resuming upwards after a little hang around 1.28-1.29. NG, what can I say? Closer to bottom than top perhaps only because it can't go beyond 0. Yes, 0. Although didn't the baltic dry index go negative in 2008, meaning shippers were in theory paying people to ship stuff?? That would be fun ;)
Surges like Friday through today are why I play like I do (*overtrade*). I feel reasonably confident picking inflection points, but not how far they'll run after they turn. Seeing "the big one" coming is tough day to day. I'm much more often than not in position when they go and my limits are usually A LOT further from price than my stops. Small losses, large gains is the name of the game. That is unless you're just stacking and waiting.
I'll probably get my ass handed to me sometime this week, but at least it'll only be a small fraction of what I got off the shorts these last few days.
Best of luck dudes and dudettes.
I'm trying to print out some charts, but I loaded my spreadsheets with so much data that my gif generation procedure seems to be super slow for now. Hopefully I'll fix it by tonight.
In the mean time I wanted to say something about gold averaged over just the last two weeks.
Based on past data for the full year of 2011, the 5am-10am short and 2:30pm-5am long would have been very close to an ideal trading strategy for the year.
But based on the data so far available for 2012, the best strategy would have been:
1) short 2:30am - 9:30am
2) long 9:30am - 2:30am.
I have not figured out a way to reconcile averages based on recent but smaller samples with averages based on less-recent larger samples. But I guess the original long/short times I proposed (or something close to that) are going to be a workable pattern for the next few months. One part of the time-of-day strategy is to just do it and let the automatic trades generate (hopefully) profits for you. (I also guess that the times proposed by some others on this thread would be good too.)
But really, a simple buy and hold strategy has done very well so far this year. That's what I've been doing so far and it has worked very well.
Having said all this, I don't think I'm going to go short tonight. I really do agree with Turd about the direction of gold and silver. Probably I will lighten my long at 2:30am and re-buy at 2:30pm tomorrow, but I'm not even sure about that.
That one was green from Friday afternoon buy. Will buy back position 2:30 pm, hopefully lower...of course :)
@Titus - even if the timing isn't always perfect or generates red from time to time, I think it still takes you out of the long market during the "worst time"...London hours. London effs PM bugs plain and simple. Why be their prey? I don't think I'll be playing the short half of the strategy, just the long 2:30 pm - 5 am. Short just doesn't feel right. At least for a while. I'm also toying with putting on a partial position (I'm playing with more than "one" right now) at 10 am (vs. covering, since I won't be short) and then more to "top off" at 2:30 pm. This way I'd participate in that flat but slightly down zone and also capture some of the windfall profits on hot days (like Friday). Haven't done that yet, maybe tomorrow for Turnaround Tuesday? Anyway, being out during London hours is psychologically comforting even if other strategies suggest staying long is best. Might be worth the peace of mind to leave some profits on the table?
Good work you've been doing, really appreciate it!
Caught a nice bid after Euros announce Iranian sanctions to phase in. Knowing this is more bark than bite, sold into rally. All flat now.
Long Euro would have been nice, but at least I wasn't short it this time...
I see I got the price wrong. It is -25 cents from Friday, so $1.80. I must have used the APR30 close of 3.05 to get $2.80. Equiv to SLV at ~$30.50.
The current pullback in the PMs this AM is the healthiest thing that could have happened, after Friday. It's consolidation, and gives the fence-sitters yet another opportunity to get in the game.