Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:28pm
SuperManny
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Still no clear direction in Silver...

I just closed my AGQ position, again. Bought a bunch of it at 100 when it dropped yesterday. I planned on holding it til it reached 110 (like I did last time) but it still looks weak, so I turned them back into the wild at 106, for a quick 6%. If we get a pop I'm going short.

Also got my MS shorts on today... I figure if Cramer's pimping it, that makes it a good short candidate. The bank shorts have been kind to me over the last few days...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:48pm
GS_PHYS
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Atlee

SI, Any trend reversals you see NOW?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:51pm
GS_PHYS
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Atlee

DUP

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:07pm
Fleve
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Good grief

Dang, I've only recently went from trading (dur, shorting) silver to trading miners. Are those buggers always this volatile or is this abnormal? I mean jeez, stuff moves around like a cat thrown in a bathtub, 13% down, 4% up. I wish I had followed my plan and bought EXK at 7.5 but all the fear had me spooked.

Bleh, teaches me another lesson. Always follow your plans. At least then, whatever the outcome, you'll know what to change afterwards. Otherwise, if you go changing stuff, you're just tossing about with no plan at all anyway. Plan all outcomes, trust yourself, execute, analyze, and adapt.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:17pm
Iowegian
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Guru focus

One more post on subject here... then out.

I know about Edelson's past miscues. Take all these guys for what they are worth.... I do read a lot, though, and will continue to do so. Edelson not only called the dollar rally, but gave the RATIONALE behind the rally. No one is saying he is deity, but his past comments have certainly been helpful for me. According to Edelson's August blog, the Dollar rally was imminent due to the structural flaws of the Euro coming to a breaking point. Give credit where it is due and learn.

The guru who really has my utmost respect but seems to garner little, if any attention at times, is Peter Grandich. He wisely defers to others on TA questions as he is mostly focused on fundamentals along with individual miner stocks, but he does have a definite knack for getting the overall direction of the market, whether it is interest rates, stocks, or metals correct. Again - lot's of headaches saved by keeping tabs on what Grandich is saying. For instance, Grandich successfully navigated around the Spring massacre in PM's. Ignore the guy at your peril.

To say cart blanche that our trading decisions are not impacted by respected opinions of other and therefore should not be discussed here at all is at best an oxymoron of who we are. Its probably more analogous to putting ourselves on the deity pedestal. We ARE impacted by Sinclair, Norcini, Edelson, Grandich, etc. Sometimes they are right... others times.... well.

I do keep my posts to a minimum on this corner to keep down the trash problem that is on Main Street. However, given that many of do not even keep up with Main Street any longer, I do believe that credible attention to multiple sources of Guru chatter is not only relevant but can be very desirable of posting and/or reading.

Stashed away in FEMA Camp #7
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:27pm Iowegian
D E
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Iowegian

I agree, the more opinions, the better, so long as they have some rationale behind them. If we had this stuff wired, we wouldn't be here on this blog, but hanging on a yacht somewhere.

How's the corn and bean news out there, Iowegian?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:33pm
atlee
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sorry

sorry. got a little busy there. my charts are still obviously buy. I have not acted on it as we are now overbought on the stoch and at the top of the bollinger band. Doesnt mean it can't keep going up but I dont buy at the top of the band.

@super Manny

Great Trade !!

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:36pm
Iowegian
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@ DE

On a personal level its a subject that I have been avoiding. Lots of whether damage to my crops. What did not blow down in the early part of summer dried out in the latter. No kidding & very frustrating.

At our family country bank, a majority of our farmers have been pleasantly surprised by the early numbers on beans. Not great, but generally near last year's number in terms of bushels. Farmers working around the clock. 105 day corn is testing below 15 with the beans still not fully harvested.

GL to you!

Stashed away in FEMA Camp #7
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:42pm
atlee
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thanks Iowegian

All great points. And thanks for the corn intel.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:48pm Iowegian
Abraham Bernanke
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Hi all,  I respect all your

Hi all, I respect all your excellent posts here and shared TA. I subscribe to a paid site for trade information and there are other Silver information sources to gain comments about possible direction for free, here is one for example pasted below. There seems to be a bullish call forming from several sources with the possibility of a fairly strong (parabolic) push upwards. Silver might be trading sideways on its '"current bottom" or might drop a little more before it runs up. If it drops before the run up you will need to be careful to catch a lower price than it is now, or should you consider this sideways movement and the massive bear spike to 26 as the bottom before the run up. Have a look at this and it reaffirms 3 other sources of which 1 is a paid service ""All saying the same thing"". After the drop as we had, we should see a pretty powerful bull run up when it takes off, have those silver cannon balls loaded ready.

Be Lucky.

Silver Update 10/03/11 - BOA is DOA
SWAGER on. Silver - Wine - Art - Gold - Energy - Real estate
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:55pm Iowegian
D E
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Sorry to hear about your

Sorry to hear about your crop. A very weird weather year, no doubt.

As to the corn testing, that sounds pretty good from what little I know about discounts. Do your customers have price targets for selling the corn, and will they choose to store vs. sell if the price is too low?

Thanks for the input.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 2:06pm atlee
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Euro spike

Euro catching a sharp bid; DK why; will see if I'm the windshield or the bug...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 2:11pm atlee
GS_PHYS
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@Atlee

atlee wrote:

sorry. got a little busy there. my charts are still obviously buy. I have not acted on it as we are now overbought on the stoch and at the top of the bollinger band. Doesnt mean it can't keep going up but I dont buy at the top of the band.

@super Manny

Great Trade !!

Top of Bollinger on 5 min / 15 min or which chart ?

Thanks in Advance...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 2:41pm GS_PHYS
atlee
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all of them trough 30 minute.

all of them through 1 hr.. Turning sell now through 10 15 is close

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 2:45pm
Sycee
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Silver has held 30 for 2

Silver has held 30 for 2 weeks now and OI is at its lows, may be time for a Bounce. I guess you could make the case it hasn't had a real breakout yet. Momentum on the daily and 4 hour is up and the weekly is starting to reverse as well. Maybe another 2-3 months before the bull resumes, though.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 2:58pm
SilverWealth
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nice turnaround

Nice turnaround starting late Tuesday, even fooled me on my favorite day after I had written it off.

Would like to see consolidation of this expansion move now tomorrow and perhaps Friday. Could set up more bullish picture if it can hold its gains.

I would not anticipate at all that following this expansion move we have more of the same tomorrow. Digestion usually follows this kind of expansion just as anxious price-chasers board the train North.

Patience now and watching. Sold EXK,SVM and GDXJ but only had small amounts of new positions to sell.

Can this hold up and consolidate tomorrow as we head into Terrible Thursday?

Who knows?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 3:06pm
rotbrador
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jesse livermore

i never knew he knocked himself out. Tragic.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 3:28pm
Iowegian
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@ DE

That varies so much from farmer to farmer. Some guys who I would never otherwise figure had any marketing skills, seem to nail it every single year. Yeah - I can safely say there definitely is a trend toward to holding crops as the producers have been kicking themselves for the past couple of years of selling to early. Do not know how this will play out, though. The macro bushel numbers will carry the day, so if there is a larger grain reserve, the price may go down with panic selling ensuing as in the old days of marketing.

I doubt that will be the case, though. I fall into the camp that sees an ever increasing global demand for Corn, Beans and Rice and tend to believe the reserve will get consumed, traded or otherwise disposed of through biofuels. Also, further fiat debasements are likely from my perspective to keep the economy from capitulating which should be bullish for grains. On the other side of the equation, I have one livestock producer with enough size that every .10 increase of decrease in corn price translates to a $250,000 higher or lower feed cost. This producer previously hedged and has been feeding $4 corn, but now feels it is time to lock in corn prices at these levels due to lock-in margins with the current higher livestock prices coupled with potential spikes in future prices. He tends to be real good at predicting future grain prices.

IMO perhaps the best indication of future grain prices is to watch Oil action. With the advent of Ethanol there seems to be an ever stronger correlation between the two.

Corn testing under 15 tends to problematic. First of all, you have more shrinkage than necessary so you loose some yield that way. Secondly, running the harvester gets pretty tricky and you will likely incur loss due to grain dropping problems, Finally, corn that has dried that far is suspect to wind damage as the stalks get pretty brittle allowing the ears to fall to the ground. If I had my drothers, I would combine corn in the 17 range and pay a small amount of propane to dry down to the 15 area. Never seems to be case, though.

Stashed away in FEMA Camp #7
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 3:30pm
SSK
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Shifted focus today to the

Shifted focus today to the oils. Unbelievable action. Bought BHI and SU. Cleaning up.

Still wondering what the hell is up with UNG though? What a turd.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 3:45pm
sp001
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looks like we will see the

looks like we will see the top of the downtrend equity channel with /es to low 1160s. i have decided to hold off on any additional short till we at least get to that level. even then i'm not going to play my entire hand all at once. there could be more as most of the past rallies in the last 2 months have lasted at least 3 days & sometimes up to 5.

amazingly i still haven't figured out how to post a chart. surely there must be a sticky somewhere in the forum with this info. don't even know what i need to sign up for. i have a flickr & picasa acct, and photobucket but not sure what to do from that point