Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:45am
atlee
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no pop

no pop set up failed. It was a nice little pennant. Easier to see on 10 min gold. Gold looks like it is headed for the ER.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:55am
FalseParadigm
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I propose

Instead of occupy wall street (which SHOULD be Occupy the NY Fed) I propose all Turdies consider launching Occupy the CFTC. Seriously, two blatant and MAJOR price manipulation take downs in one year (first the May massacre then Sept. gold).

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:55am
Rico
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Trying to pick a direction

Trying to pick a direction this AM is a fine recipe for losing money. Oh well--sometimes you can only watch...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:07am
SSK
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MIssed this bounce for the

MIssed this bounce for the most part. Was able to buy some AUY under 13.

Now I'm locking and loading the DUST. Waiting waiting waiting.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:08am Rico
pailin
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Rico wrote: Trying to pick a

Rico wrote:

Trying to pick a direction this AM is a fine recipe for losing money. Oh well--sometimes you can only watch...

Tried a little silver short myself and got burned, but only 10 cents. Waiting for a better setup. Let's see if they can get her thru 30. Higher lows all morning was the clue not to short :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:10am
SilverWealth
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GDX Jekyl Hyde

This morning somebody sure wants miners. Maybe its just a trade off a bottom.

GDX sitting at bottom of gap now. Some nice follow thru from yesterday's late short covering.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:17am
sp001
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@unknown  please

@unknown

please post

@severin

have u read livermore's book?i am not finished with it. but just about everything the EE does seems to have been done several years ago. the more i learn about it the more i realize this is always how markets work, for better or worse. a family friend that is a wheat trader for 20+ yrs now once told me the tricks they did to move the market. it was really pretty similar. if u have a ton of something to unload in the market wouldn't u maneuver in a way to get the highest price for it?

i think a lot of people are pissed at EE and think "they" did this unfair illegal maneuver. but if u think about it, it is no different than any normal trader would do...

but before anyone gets me wrong, since they are doing this with the backing of taxpayer money and the arrogance of napolean (u will see why that analogy is fitting if u ever ride a rush hr subway below canal street in the morning), they deserve a big ass whoopin' in my opinion. at least when i read livermore, i can see that there is a human there who feels the need to take personal responsibility for his failures.

not enough time today, but at some point we may have to start asking, what if? what if silver and gold actually stay range bound for a long time? if that happens, and it may, then there are ways to make money still via iron condors. for ex, u can sell the 144/145 put spread and the 171/172 call spread in gld right now for november. it gets u about $0.40 cents in credit for each $1 spread. basically u have 60 cents at risk to make 40 cents. if gld stays btwn 171.50 (1760 gc) and 144.87 (1493) by nov expiration in about 30-40 days, u make 66% return. to do this u need to know how to manage gamma risk. u also need to learn to think opposite of how most people trade, ie, we r not looking for a thrill ride but actually will be cheering for boredom. no time now, but tonight i will start looking into it. u can do this for oct also 0.23, ie 30% gain by end of october. oh there is a catch, if it goes to about 142 or 174 u have a 100% loss.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:27am sp001
FalseParadigm
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sp001 wrote:if u have a

sp001 wrote:

if u have a ton of something to unload in the market wouldn't u maneuver in a way to get the highest price for it?



Yes but in every single instance, selling/shorting volume surges in very low volume environments.

For example, the latest sell off in gold began with a ton of selling occurring in the thinly traded hours. If what you said was indeed the case, the last thing a seller would want to do would be to unload during thin volume because it guarantees the the lowest possible price. Better to sell during the day when volume is up, thus maximizing your profits. Same happened during the May massacre.
sp001 wrote:
i think a lot of people are pissed at EE and think "they" did this unfair illegal maneuver. but if u think about it, it is no different than any normal trader would do...


All the evidence points to the contrary. The EE has every incentive to illegally manipulate PMs. A)Doing so allows them to contain both metals and drive more $$ into TSYs and B)JPM makes a shitload of money going short and long.

And overall I think you missed my point. The CFTC has clearly done absolutely nothing to further investigate and/or prosecute those that manipulate and control the metals markets. There is obviously a ton of evidence that suggests that JPM/CME group blatantly manipulate the markets.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:50am
atlee
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EUR/USD

Check out the EUR/USD too easy.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:51am
I Am The Unknown Comic
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Stating the Obvious

Just to state the obvious for those who may have overlooked it, silver failed to overtake the daily pivot at 30.06 and is heading back toward support level 1, which is all the way down there at 28.78. Notice the levels are wider apart today.

Good luck trading to all, and remember that my thoughts are worth exactly what you paid for them. Trade on your own.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:11am atlee
D E
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big fan

Always been a big fan of too easy myself.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:21am atlee
SSK
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Ok, I'll be the dumb guy.

Ok, I'll be the dumb guy. USD/EUR as a spread trade? Long dollar, short euro? UUP/EUO?

How is it too easy?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:57am SSK
D E
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Actually

I was referring to women, but Euro, I'd short at 1.3335 up to 13375; stop at 1.34270. in fact just shorted first leg at 1.33250

Then again, I haven't been feeling too smart myself lately

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:58am SSK
atlee
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euro price in dollars. called

euro price in dollars. called a cross. any way here is a chart link. put the b bands on it and trade the band. Short has been cake. b band should be 20, 2. run ma 18 down the middle. ice cream on a hot summer day.

https://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

trade euro futures contract

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:02pm
Rico
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Alright--who just put the

Alright--who just put the Viagra in the gold punch?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:04pm sp001
Sockeye
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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

The first sentence of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Chapter 16 XVI

"Tips! How people want tips! They crave not only to get them but to give them."

The entire chapter is on tips.

FREE BOOK

https://ebooks.gutenberg.us/WorldeBookLibrary.com/confessstock.htm#1_0_18

I am reading it for the 5th or 6th time. What a Fantastic Book. This book is usually included on everyone's list of Best Books on Trading.

I think what I am learning more than anything this read is that I am shocked that back 100 years ago trading was the same as today. I like the part where he says he is making a nice comeback 150% per week. So he knows he is in the grove once again. I also love the story where some guy gives Gates a tip. Too Friggin Much.

This thread is about TRADING. That implies everyone wants to be a Trader. Well if each person has not at least started to read this book then they are fooling themselves. Every true trader loves this book.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:09pm Rico
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Greeks

Don't drop the soap...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:19pm atlee
Sockeye
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Question

atlee wrote:

euro price in dollars. called a cross. any way here is a chart link. put the b bands on it and trade the band. Short has been cake. b band should be 20, 2. run ma 18 down the middle.

What is the purpose of 18 dma down the middle instead of the more normal 20 dma ??

Normally Bollinger Bands use the same number for the center ma as used in the BB.

Thanks for the insight.

I could be wrong here. but my impression is that we look for moves touching or exceeding the BB and I do not think the central mov ave does much. But then I never used BB. I really don't understand BB well.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:24pm
SSK
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Cheers Atlee. I've sold my

Cheers Atlee.

I've sold my AUY, lightened up on the portfolio and tip-toed into DUST.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:27pm
SilverWealth
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Livermore

Everybody loves Jesse Livermore. Except Jesse Livermore had a hard time loving himself, lost 95 % of what he won and then committed suicide.

Reality check.

Yes his insights are interesting. It stops there.

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