Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:51am
I Am The Unknown Comic
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Stating the Obvious

Just to state the obvious for those who may have overlooked it, silver failed to overtake the daily pivot at 30.06 and is heading back toward support level 1, which is all the way down there at 28.78. Notice the levels are wider apart today.

Good luck trading to all, and remember that my thoughts are worth exactly what you paid for them. Trade on your own.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:11am (Reply to #7890)
D E
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big fan

Always been a big fan of too easy myself.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:21am (Reply to #7890)
SSK
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Ok, I'll be the dumb guy.

Ok, I'll be the dumb guy. USD/EUR as a spread trade? Long dollar, short euro? UUP/EUO?

How is it too easy?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:57am (Reply to #7893)
D E
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Actually

I was referring to women, but Euro, I'd short at 1.3335 up to 13375; stop at 1.34270. in fact just shorted first leg at 1.33250

Then again, I haven't been feeling too smart myself lately

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 11:58am (Reply to #7893)
atlee
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euro price in dollars. called

euro price in dollars. called a cross. any way here is a chart link. put the b bands on it and trade the band. Short has been cake. b band should be 20, 2. run ma 18 down the middle. ice cream on a hot summer day.

https://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx

trade euro futures contract

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:02pm
Rico
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Alright--who just put the

Alright--who just put the Viagra in the gold punch?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:04pm (Reply to #7888)
Sockeye
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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

The first sentence of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Chapter 16 XVI

"Tips! How people want tips! They crave not only to get them but to give them."

The entire chapter is on tips.

FREE BOOK

https://ebooks.gutenberg.us/WorldeBookLibrary.com/confessstock.htm#1_0_18

I am reading it for the 5th or 6th time. What a Fantastic Book. This book is usually included on everyone's list of Best Books on Trading.

I think what I am learning more than anything this read is that I am shocked that back 100 years ago trading was the same as today. I like the part where he says he is making a nice comeback 150% per week. So he knows he is in the grove once again. I also love the story where some guy gives Gates a tip. Too Friggin Much.

This thread is about TRADING. That implies everyone wants to be a Trader. Well if each person has not at least started to read this book then they are fooling themselves. Every true trader loves this book.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:09pm (Reply to #7896)
D E
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Greeks

Don't drop the soap...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:19pm (Reply to #7895)
Sockeye
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Question

atlee wrote:

euro price in dollars. called a cross. any way here is a chart link. put the b bands on it and trade the band. Short has been cake. b band should be 20, 2. run ma 18 down the middle.

What is the purpose of 18 dma down the middle instead of the more normal 20 dma ??

Normally Bollinger Bands use the same number for the center ma as used in the BB.

Thanks for the insight.

I could be wrong here. but my impression is that we look for moves touching or exceeding the BB and I do not think the central mov ave does much. But then I never used BB. I really don't understand BB well.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:24pm
SSK
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Cheers Atlee. I've sold my

Cheers Atlee.

I've sold my AUY, lightened up on the portfolio and tip-toed into DUST.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:27pm
SilverWealth
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Livermore

Everybody loves Jesse Livermore. Except Jesse Livermore had a hard time loving himself, lost 95 % of what he won and then committed suicide.

Reality check.

Yes his insights are interesting. It stops there.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:28pm
SuperManny
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Still no clear direction in Silver...

I just closed my AGQ position, again. Bought a bunch of it at 100 when it dropped yesterday. I planned on holding it til it reached 110 (like I did last time) but it still looks weak, so I turned them back into the wild at 106, for a quick 6%. If we get a pop I'm going short.

Also got my MS shorts on today... I figure if Cramer's pimping it, that makes it a good short candidate. The bank shorts have been kind to me over the last few days...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:48pm
GS_PHYS
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Atlee

SI, Any trend reversals you see NOW?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:51pm
GS_PHYS
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Atlee

DUP

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:07pm
Fleve
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Good grief

Dang, I've only recently went from trading (dur, shorting) silver to trading miners. Are those buggers always this volatile or is this abnormal? I mean jeez, stuff moves around like a cat thrown in a bathtub, 13% down, 4% up. I wish I had followed my plan and bought EXK at 7.5 but all the fear had me spooked.

Bleh, teaches me another lesson. Always follow your plans. At least then, whatever the outcome, you'll know what to change afterwards. Otherwise, if you go changing stuff, you're just tossing about with no plan at all anyway. Plan all outcomes, trust yourself, execute, analyze, and adapt.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:17pm
Iowegian
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Guru focus

One more post on subject here... then out.

I know about Edelson's past miscues. Take all these guys for what they are worth.... I do read a lot, though, and will continue to do so. Edelson not only called the dollar rally, but gave the RATIONALE behind the rally. No one is saying he is deity, but his past comments have certainly been helpful for me. According to Edelson's August blog, the Dollar rally was imminent due to the structural flaws of the Euro coming to a breaking point. Give credit where it is due and learn.

The guru who really has my utmost respect but seems to garner little, if any attention at times, is Peter Grandich. He wisely defers to others on TA questions as he is mostly focused on fundamentals along with individual miner stocks, but he does have a definite knack for getting the overall direction of the market, whether it is interest rates, stocks, or metals correct. Again - lot's of headaches saved by keeping tabs on what Grandich is saying. For instance, Grandich successfully navigated around the Spring massacre in PM's. Ignore the guy at your peril.

To say cart blanche that our trading decisions are not impacted by respected opinions of other and therefore should not be discussed here at all is at best an oxymoron of who we are. Its probably more analogous to putting ourselves on the deity pedestal. We ARE impacted by Sinclair, Norcini, Edelson, Grandich, etc. Sometimes they are right... others times.... well.

I do keep my posts to a minimum on this corner to keep down the trash problem that is on Main Street. However, given that many of do not even keep up with Main Street any longer, I do believe that credible attention to multiple sources of Guru chatter is not only relevant but can be very desirable of posting and/or reading.

Stashed away in FEMA Camp #7
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:27pm (Reply to #7906)
D E
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Iowegian

I agree, the more opinions, the better, so long as they have some rationale behind them. If we had this stuff wired, we wouldn't be here on this blog, but hanging on a yacht somewhere.

How's the corn and bean news out there, Iowegian?

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:33pm
atlee
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sorry

sorry. got a little busy there. my charts are still obviously buy. I have not acted on it as we are now overbought on the stoch and at the top of the bollinger band. Doesnt mean it can't keep going up but I dont buy at the top of the band.

@super Manny

Great Trade !!

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:36pm
Iowegian
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@ DE

On a personal level its a subject that I have been avoiding. Lots of whether damage to my crops. What did not blow down in the early part of summer dried out in the latter. No kidding & very frustrating.

At our family country bank, a majority of our farmers have been pleasantly surprised by the early numbers on beans. Not great, but generally near last year's number in terms of bushels. Farmers working around the clock. 105 day corn is testing below 15 with the beans still not fully harvested.

GL to you!

Stashed away in FEMA Camp #7
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:42pm
atlee
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thanks Iowegian

All great points. And thanks for the corn intel.

randomness