Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:09am
ivars
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There is only one way to improve future silver profits

That is , to buy more at lower price to lower average value, and than wait when silver gets over it. That takes some patience, and belief that there will be no more plunging- why should there? Or even if there is? As if 26 was not bad enough, and repeated 28.5 as well. 3(or was it 4) opportunities to buy for those whose average is above 30USD.

When i just started with stocks, made a beginners mistake riding the growth - I bought a huge chunk from profits I had made in 2006-2007 at top, September 2007 (!) . Then, I saw it disappear all the way till March 2009 when I had accumulated enough cash and bought another chunk of the same stock, lowering my average by 40%. In end of 2010, I sold the stock 10% below its 2010-2011 peak value, and thus minimized the losses from 5 times (!) to 3 times.... But in the end of March 2009 I was sure stock will go up for more than 1,5 years, and quite significantly-as they did. Based on my first charts, back then.

Of course, better strategy would be to exit anytime before September 2007 and October 2008 as stock was falling but still higher than what i ended with- but that is not available here for most silver folks anyway, as 49 and 42 are history.

However, if one thinks, feels and believes silver is the thing that will turn up eventually from this plato of 30+-3 , I would be gathering cash to buy more and lower the average.

I would not do it with gold as gold growth in next years is very limited. Sell gold, invest in silver, that would be my actions.

But then, I do not trade, since the experience I told above has left me with too big hole (credit) in my pocket. I can not risk last cash i have, and sit with loan only, EVEN if I may be sure things will move up for silver. One reason is margin calls, of course. With stocks, I did not have those, so could sit on the stock for 3 years before parting with it, incurring no cost no extra risk.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:29am
pailin
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silver short?

Possible silver short setting up right now using 5min 5/20 MA cross at 29.05 Waiting for 5 to come down to 20 and give 'er a try. Cut loss at 29.22. Not there yet and COMEX open may rip her upward.

EDIT - MA cross didn't happen, so I was spared getting my face ripped off on that short cover. What happened...Geithner just buy EU or something?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:43am
Empiricus
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The Market We Are Trading

Long time lurker here. I would like to thank Pailin and Atlee for what has been invaluable commentary. This little corner is a gem and a great way to get perspective from people who are motivated more by reality and price action than ideology.

I think Atlee has nailed it. There is nothing here that says buy. Something changed a few weeks ago and this is the first article I saw that recognized it.

https://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/central-banks-waging-war-o...

We need to recognize the other side of the trade. Central bankers are out to destroy the gold and silver story. Their goal is to inject maximum pain to those who are trading their ideology. The possibility of the central bankers and central planners having success in destroying gold and silver price has to be seriously considered.

An inflexible long bet on gold/silver of any form is a bet for systemic failure only at this point. The bankers have made it clear they will fight metal advocates to the death. Don't count on "strong demand from Asians". The Asians are in worse shape than we are. The banking crisis unfolding in China has real deflationary potential in that country.

Atlee, you nailed it yesterday - "enough of a bounce to convince the helpless perma bulls that their dream is still alive". Until we have overt QE on a global scale, the dream is dead and every bounce is a sell.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:57am
Rico
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I suggest that, here in our

I suggest that, here in our little Corner of Trading, everyone refrain from any mention of any utterances by the PM Cheerleading Squad. Embry, Edelson, Sinclair, etc. are no better than a coin flip, and can do considerably more damage to the inexperienced and gullible.

There are plenty of other places on Planet Turd for people to go for that stuff, if they just can't help themselves.

@empiricus

They've got you right where they want you.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:00am
SilverWealth
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trader dan

that's a great article by Norcini in early September.

I have been joking about him of late but I do respect his overview.

And he is correct. This is a war.

The way routinely now Gold is knocked down 30 pts at 4 a.m. every morning or thereabouts is just beyond obvious.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:06am (Reply to #7862)
BUDDHA PRINCESS
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Any new updates from Edelson

Is there a new updates from Edelson????

gold hit 1597 around 5;30 this morning, but i know Thursday is ussually down day in metals, so I wonder, should I still wait? Anybody getting a green light on your charts???

Pailin, Atlee????

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:14am
SilverWealth
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cheerleaders

The Cheerleaders are out in force and are really shameless today

over at KWNews. They are now resorting to Norweigan dealers to try and rouse the masses. That's sinking pretty low. Claiming some kind of odd backwardization in NORWAY.

Fucking pass the sardines Eric.

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/5_E...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:27am
atlee
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feels like

feels like we are setting up for one more pop this morning. things went buy this morning early below 29. I was asleep and didnt take it. I am not a buyer. I am a seller of good hard rallies. Let you know if I change my stance.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:32am (Reply to #7876)
firstsilver
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Don't deify Edelson

Yes, Edelson has nailed it lately. Check back earlier, however, and you will find he's been calling for this sharp pullback in precious metals for a long, long time, thereby missing a large chunk of the run-up.

Net-net, he's only about even over the past 12 months or so.

A colleague of his -- Brodrick -- even quipped in a recent audio, on Howestreet.com, I think last week, that Larry FINALLY was right.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:38am
I Am The Unknown Comic
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Today's Support/Resistance

S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3

26.12 27.4 28.78 30.06 31.45 32.72 34.11

I do find these useful. I hope y'all do to. If not I can quit posting them. I have the data on my screen, and am just posting these for the benefit of the forum. They're a good reference mark for me when I'm going back over the thread.

Good luck trading to all, and remember that my thoughts are worth exactly what you paid for them. Trade on your own.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:40am
SilverWealth
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timeturn

Expect profit taking into the Algo timeturn at 10a.m. vicinity.

Then see if buying programs get thrown on with a momentum reversal to upside.

Waiting on robots now. Terminator II,III,IV are now in effect.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:45am
atlee
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no pop

no pop set up failed. It was a nice little pennant. Easier to see on 10 min gold. Gold looks like it is headed for the ER.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:55am
FalseParadigm
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I propose

Instead of occupy wall street (which SHOULD be Occupy the NY Fed) I propose all Turdies consider launching Occupy the CFTC. Seriously, two blatant and MAJOR price manipulation take downs in one year (first the May massacre then Sept. gold).

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:55am
Rico
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Trying to pick a direction

Trying to pick a direction this AM is a fine recipe for losing money. Oh well--sometimes you can only watch...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:07am
SSK
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MIssed this bounce for the

MIssed this bounce for the most part. Was able to buy some AUY under 13.

Now I'm locking and loading the DUST. Waiting waiting waiting.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:08am (Reply to #7884)
pailin
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Rico wrote: Trying to pick a

Rico wrote:

Trying to pick a direction this AM is a fine recipe for losing money. Oh well--sometimes you can only watch...

Tried a little silver short myself and got burned, but only 10 cents. Waiting for a better setup. Let's see if they can get her thru 30. Higher lows all morning was the clue not to short :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:10am
SilverWealth
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GDX Jekyl Hyde

This morning somebody sure wants miners. Maybe its just a trade off a bottom.

GDX sitting at bottom of gap now. Some nice follow thru from yesterday's late short covering.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:17am
sp001
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@unknown  please

@unknown

please post

@severin

have u read livermore's book?i am not finished with it. but just about everything the EE does seems to have been done several years ago. the more i learn about it the more i realize this is always how markets work, for better or worse. a family friend that is a wheat trader for 20+ yrs now once told me the tricks they did to move the market. it was really pretty similar. if u have a ton of something to unload in the market wouldn't u maneuver in a way to get the highest price for it?

i think a lot of people are pissed at EE and think "they" did this unfair illegal maneuver. but if u think about it, it is no different than any normal trader would do...

but before anyone gets me wrong, since they are doing this with the backing of taxpayer money and the arrogance of napolean (u will see why that analogy is fitting if u ever ride a rush hr subway below canal street in the morning), they deserve a big ass whoopin' in my opinion. at least when i read livermore, i can see that there is a human there who feels the need to take personal responsibility for his failures.

not enough time today, but at some point we may have to start asking, what if? what if silver and gold actually stay range bound for a long time? if that happens, and it may, then there are ways to make money still via iron condors. for ex, u can sell the 144/145 put spread and the 171/172 call spread in gld right now for november. it gets u about $0.40 cents in credit for each $1 spread. basically u have 60 cents at risk to make 40 cents. if gld stays btwn 171.50 (1760 gc) and 144.87 (1493) by nov expiration in about 30-40 days, u make 66% return. to do this u need to know how to manage gamma risk. u also need to learn to think opposite of how most people trade, ie, we r not looking for a thrill ride but actually will be cheering for boredom. no time now, but tonight i will start looking into it. u can do this for oct also 0.23, ie 30% gain by end of october. oh there is a catch, if it goes to about 142 or 174 u have a 100% loss.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:27am (Reply to #7888)
FalseParadigm
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sp001 wrote:if u have a

sp001 wrote:

if u have a ton of something to unload in the market wouldn't u maneuver in a way to get the highest price for it?



Yes but in every single instance, selling/shorting volume surges in very low volume environments.

For example, the latest sell off in gold began with a ton of selling occurring in the thinly traded hours. If what you said was indeed the case, the last thing a seller would want to do would be to unload during thin volume because it guarantees the the lowest possible price. Better to sell during the day when volume is up, thus maximizing your profits. Same happened during the May massacre.
sp001 wrote:
i think a lot of people are pissed at EE and think "they" did this unfair illegal maneuver. but if u think about it, it is no different than any normal trader would do...


All the evidence points to the contrary. The EE has every incentive to illegally manipulate PMs. A)Doing so allows them to contain both metals and drive more $$ into TSYs and B)JPM makes a shitload of money going short and long.

And overall I think you missed my point. The CFTC has clearly done absolutely nothing to further investigate and/or prosecute those that manipulate and control the metals markets. There is obviously a ton of evidence that suggests that JPM/CME group blatantly manipulate the markets.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 10:50am
atlee
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EUR/USD

Check out the EUR/USD too easy.