Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:32pm
Iowegian
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Find a new guru

One of the disadvantages of this site is that we are a herd of sheople in ourselves. Atlee - glad you called a spade a spade. Sinclair certainly missed this. IMO - I have stated this in other posts - we rely too heavily on Norcini & Sinclair. Know they are Turd's boyz but that is the problem. If they are wrong, Turd typically follows and there goes the herd.

Tried to start a thread on other Guru's, but it did not receive much interest. So, what's a guy to do? Larry Edelson has been nailing it. Here is a post dated 8-29-2011. Saved me a lot of heartache:

https://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/important-re-gold-12819

excerpt:

"Here are my answers:

First, as published in my recent columns, I believe gold can fall back to the following support levels: $1,611 … $1,567 … $1,433 … $1,386 … and $1,359.

A closing price below each of the above support levels will indicate a move to the next lower support area.

What’s driving gold lower is simply this …

A. It was hugely overbought and way overdue for a correction.

B. The dollar is likely bottoming (short term) as the euro continues to suffer from the sovereign debt crisis and the potential that the euro will disintegrate."

More recently Edelson posted:

https://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/critical-update-plus-open-letter-to-buffett-and-obama-13004

"If you’re long gold, I do not recommend selling your positions. I do however recommend hedging your gold via purchases of an inverse gold fund such as the PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ).

I suggest lifting that hedge if gold finds support at the $1,567 level by penetrating it and closing back above it, or if gold somehow manages to rally and close above the $1,880 level.

Silver is crapping out. It has broken weekly support at the $41.14 level and is now trading below the $38.86 level, an important bearish signal I gave you in previous columns.

Silver is in danger of collapsing, first to $34, then even lower, to the $30 level. I’ve republished my key support levels here for your reference.

I also repeat my warnings: Don’t touch silver with a 10-foot pole. Sell it short only if you can afford the risk … you can handle the emotional swings in silver."

I dabbled in GDX options last week, but covered. No trading positions until the downside has been probed further.

Stashed away in FEMA Camp #7
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:33pm Sockeye
Invisible Hand
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True. I was trading EXK and

True. I was trading EXK and AG exclusively for a while and was able to hold from May to August and get bailed out (with a nice profit). EXK is looking better and better as a long(er) term buy again. I'm going to see how these next few weeks play out.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 11:50pm
plunder
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Some max pain data

Hi guys - I haven't posted any of my goofy charts for a while, too busy. But I ran some numbers from the CME and on SLV today so here they are, no reason to keep them to myself.

CME November options (10/26 expiration I think) aren't very big money at all compared to a delivery month. Trouble only starts below $25 or up in the $40s:

SLV on the other hand is a lot more focused for the 10/22 expiration. This shows that SLV ought to make a move toward $32 ($33 spot) as 10/22 approaches.

The pyramid chart indicates that a lot of knife-catchers got caught in the mid $30s. A heck of a lot of put contracts were also picked up at the $26 strike which seems out of place. I wonder if that many people really think that this is "the big one." Not me. Maybe it's a strike out but I went long SLV today.

edit: my rationale by the way was all the in the money puts in the low to mid $30s. Any convincing rally and I expect a lot of those contracts to be cashed out in a panic while they're still monied. The longs will probably do the same if they see a chance to rescue some of their position, but there are fewer longs. A lot of them already pitched, and the remaining holders at the higher strikes are probably only still holding because they were buried so quickly in the crash (after all that's why I still have a couple of october calls in the $40s...)

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 12:04am
SilverWealth
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looking for followthru

all metals tracking the Dow-Sow equity market these days.

Nice reversal candles in Dow. Same for miners. Opened low,went down and then reversed on good volume to close higher.

Have no idea for how long.

Embry is out of his mind telling people that some Silver dealer was selling Eagles at 9 dollars over spot. What a pumper. Any fool could go on the internet and buy generics for 1.60 over spot and maple leafs for $3 over spot.

Somebody should shut that guy's mouth. He shows contempt for peoples' intelligence and he discredits the silver argument by spreading nonsense like that imo.

If Embry wants to walk around in his purple and pink pleated Silver cheerleaders outfit and go to the no. 2 lipstick with the heavy Egyptian eyeliner that's his business. He can do it at home in front of the mirror.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:31am
BlackHawk
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sp001 re come back, lose big

Too freakin' funny Buddy Ro.Practice losing small; come back and lose big. A real belly laugh there. OMG you nailed it. Too hard to chime in on the Crackberry, two weeks on the road now. Think I will go all in on FAZ on the open. I'm tired of playing. My cousins have feed me squirrel, honker, buffalo, crappie and turtle in the last week. I feel wild. Wish silver would take off. As the old man said, Wish in one hand and sh#t in the other, and see which one fills up the fastest. Good luck tomorrow. JoeKa check in pls.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 1:53am
BlackHawk
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.

.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 5:14am
Titus Andronicus
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Very high volume on this raid.

Haven't seen the volume this during this time for over a week.

I'm very glad I took today's bounce as an invitation to sell all my paper. (The better part of valor, etc.)

Still have my silver and S&P puts.

Everything is up except the PMs, bonds and the USD. LOL!

This is going to be a long night for the longs.

I guess they must be dumping physical on the market. Hell, they've got enough of it.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 5:32am
Silverman
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Expecting brutal waterfall

Expecting brutal waterfall today.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 6:00am
Keg
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Find a new guru

Iowegian, thanks for the post on Edelson. I was not familiar with him. I looked over some of his recent posts and you are right. He was almost dead on this last move. I will be looking to learn more about his long term track record.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:09am
ivars
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There is only one way to improve future silver profits

That is , to buy more at lower price to lower average value, and than wait when silver gets over it. That takes some patience, and belief that there will be no more plunging- why should there? Or even if there is? As if 26 was not bad enough, and repeated 28.5 as well. 3(or was it 4) opportunities to buy for those whose average is above 30USD.

When i just started with stocks, made a beginners mistake riding the growth - I bought a huge chunk from profits I had made in 2006-2007 at top, September 2007 (!) . Then, I saw it disappear all the way till March 2009 when I had accumulated enough cash and bought another chunk of the same stock, lowering my average by 40%. In end of 2010, I sold the stock 10% below its 2010-2011 peak value, and thus minimized the losses from 5 times (!) to 3 times.... But in the end of March 2009 I was sure stock will go up for more than 1,5 years, and quite significantly-as they did. Based on my first charts, back then.

Of course, better strategy would be to exit anytime before September 2007 and October 2008 as stock was falling but still higher than what i ended with- but that is not available here for most silver folks anyway, as 49 and 42 are history.

However, if one thinks, feels and believes silver is the thing that will turn up eventually from this plato of 30+-3 , I would be gathering cash to buy more and lower the average.

I would not do it with gold as gold growth in next years is very limited. Sell gold, invest in silver, that would be my actions.

But then, I do not trade, since the experience I told above has left me with too big hole (credit) in my pocket. I can not risk last cash i have, and sit with loan only, EVEN if I may be sure things will move up for silver. One reason is margin calls, of course. With stocks, I did not have those, so could sit on the stock for 3 years before parting with it, incurring no cost no extra risk.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:29am
pailin
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silver short?

Possible silver short setting up right now using 5min 5/20 MA cross at 29.05 Waiting for 5 to come down to 20 and give 'er a try. Cut loss at 29.22. Not there yet and COMEX open may rip her upward.

EDIT - MA cross didn't happen, so I was spared getting my face ripped off on that short cover. What happened...Geithner just buy EU or something?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:43am
Empiricus
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The Market We Are Trading

Long time lurker here. I would like to thank Pailin and Atlee for what has been invaluable commentary. This little corner is a gem and a great way to get perspective from people who are motivated more by reality and price action than ideology.

I think Atlee has nailed it. There is nothing here that says buy. Something changed a few weeks ago and this is the first article I saw that recognized it.

https://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/central-banks-waging-war-o...

We need to recognize the other side of the trade. Central bankers are out to destroy the gold and silver story. Their goal is to inject maximum pain to those who are trading their ideology. The possibility of the central bankers and central planners having success in destroying gold and silver price has to be seriously considered.

An inflexible long bet on gold/silver of any form is a bet for systemic failure only at this point. The bankers have made it clear they will fight metal advocates to the death. Don't count on "strong demand from Asians". The Asians are in worse shape than we are. The banking crisis unfolding in China has real deflationary potential in that country.

Atlee, you nailed it yesterday - "enough of a bounce to convince the helpless perma bulls that their dream is still alive". Until we have overt QE on a global scale, the dream is dead and every bounce is a sell.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 8:57am
Rico
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I suggest that, here in our

I suggest that, here in our little Corner of Trading, everyone refrain from any mention of any utterances by the PM Cheerleading Squad. Embry, Edelson, Sinclair, etc. are no better than a coin flip, and can do considerably more damage to the inexperienced and gullible.

There are plenty of other places on Planet Turd for people to go for that stuff, if they just can't help themselves.

@empiricus

They've got you right where they want you.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:00am
SilverWealth
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trader dan

that's a great article by Norcini in early September.

I have been joking about him of late but I do respect his overview.

And he is correct. This is a war.

The way routinely now Gold is knocked down 30 pts at 4 a.m. every morning or thereabouts is just beyond obvious.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:06am Iowegian
BUDDHA PRINCESS
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Any new updates from Edelson

Is there a new updates from Edelson????

gold hit 1597 around 5;30 this morning, but i know Thursday is ussually down day in metals, so I wonder, should I still wait? Anybody getting a green light on your charts???

Pailin, Atlee????

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:14am
SilverWealth
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cheerleaders

The Cheerleaders are out in force and are really shameless today

over at KWNews. They are now resorting to Norweigan dealers to try and rouse the masses. That's sinking pretty low. Claiming some kind of odd backwardization in NORWAY.

Fucking pass the sardines Eric.

https://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/10/5_E...

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:27am
atlee
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feels like

feels like we are setting up for one more pop this morning. things went buy this morning early below 29. I was asleep and didnt take it. I am not a buyer. I am a seller of good hard rallies. Let you know if I change my stance.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:32am BUDDHA PRINCESS
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Don't deify Edelson

Yes, Edelson has nailed it lately. Check back earlier, however, and you will find he's been calling for this sharp pullback in precious metals for a long, long time, thereby missing a large chunk of the run-up.

Net-net, he's only about even over the past 12 months or so.

A colleague of his -- Brodrick -- even quipped in a recent audio, on Howestreet.com, I think last week, that Larry FINALLY was right.

Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:38am
I Am The Unknown Comic
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Today's Support/Resistance

S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3

26.12 27.4 28.78 30.06 31.45 32.72 34.11

I do find these useful. I hope y'all do to. If not I can quit posting them. I have the data on my screen, and am just posting these for the benefit of the forum. They're a good reference mark for me when I'm going back over the thread.

Good luck trading to all, and remember that my thoughts are worth exactly what you paid for them. Trade on your own.
Wed, Oct 5, 2011 - 9:40am
SilverWealth
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timeturn

Expect profit taking into the Algo timeturn at 10a.m. vicinity.

Then see if buying programs get thrown on with a momentum reversal to upside.

Waiting on robots now. Terminator II,III,IV are now in effect.

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