Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:24pm atlee
pailin
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atlee wrote: Gold is the key.

atlee wrote:

Gold is the key. Silver isn't going up without gold.

I agree. And gold isn't going up without dollar death or QE3. Which is really the same thing.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:26pm
FalseParadigm
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Random

But I think it's safe to say that the FT is on the Fed/ECB's payroll. Every time the S&P is falling to sub 1100 (1080 seems the major point) FT comes forward with some rumor that bumps the market for a few days up to around 1200, only to have it crash down to the same levels once again.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:28pm pailin
atlee
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Hey SP001

well missed the SPY bounce we both smelled coming. I was way off on my price guess. So does it have enough legs to get us to a comfortable level to short? What are you thinking on the ES.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:30pm atlee
FalseParadigm
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atlee wrote:well missed

atlee wrote:

well missed the SPY bounce we both smelled coming. I was way off on my price guess. So does it have enough legs to get us to a comfortable level to short? What are you thinking on the ES.



Clearly you weren't predicting yet another rumor out of the FT.

I'm pretty sure Bernanke made a call to the FT and told them to fire up the rumor mill.
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:44pm
atlee
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collusion

psychologically very effective. Really gets old. Pretty soon behind every tree is a boogeyman. Maybe just the Old World listening to the New World testimony today about, "it is their fault. I can only cajole them to do the right thing. They are threating the world economy" And they responded with another lie.

Anyone who thinks the shorts are getting hurt in this hasn't looked at a chart. Seems to me that is where the real money has been made. The longs are playing dodge ball on the interstate. The short upside blasts just invite them in again for more pain. Because, after all, it is more important to be able to say you got the bottom and it was a FUBM than it is to actually make any money.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:55pm
Titus Andronicus
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I'm not seeing a physical silver shortage.

Tulving is sold out of junk silver and 100 oz JM bars. While this is unusual, they still seem to have plenty of monster boxes at good prices.

Apmex still has junk, JM and monsters, all at reasonable premiums (for Apmex).

I would be very skeptical of these calls for a silver shortage.

On the other hand, there does seem to be a significant drying up of platinum and palladium available for immediate purchase.

I wasn't really around for the 2008 sub-$10 lows, but my understanding is that almost nothing was available to buy at those prices.

If a near complete lack of available silver is an indication of a bottom, we're not there yet. I would guess we would start to see this somewhere between $25 and $20, but anyone who says this is certain is just talking their book.

I haven't made any trades all day. Just sitting tight for now. Hoping for the chance to start adding at $25. We'll see when we get there.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:55pm
pailin
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BTFD

Only works if you STFR (sell the..rip). Few do. Myself included.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 4:56pm
sp001
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i'm thinking that band

i'm thinking that band btwn 1120 and 1140 will provide resistance, i'll start shorting again at 1140. on the way up i buy puts b/c vol is cheaper. once it starts to fall, if i still want more short then i sell call spreads. if we r lucky we will get a nice chance to short again wed or thursday

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 5:22pm
SilverWealth
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endless story

The same story, the Market freakishly bi-polar reacting off every little blurb and pause and hope.

The whole thing is so adolescent when I step back and look at it.

I look forward to closing all trading accounts on the next swing up, whenever that is and then getting on with other things sometime early next year if the timing is right. Its terribly funny how virtually everyone expects this in October every year and most of the time it plays out: high volatility, crash season, dour end of the world news everywhere,etc, etc.

In truth though, we are all now trading against robots. Algo robots. They react with lightening speed to the first words of any news story. Maybe its no different from what it was years ago, I don't know, but it is tiring and can be endlessly infantile.

Trend remains down but my 'guess' is we go up for one day before the pile on continues.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 5:57pm
I Am The Unknown Comic
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PPFFFTTTT!!!!!

What...

The....

Frick?!?!

Well somehow I managed to end just slightly up today. Unloaded some calls, added more puts and added more calls at much cheaper prices. One would think that would result in a net loss, but no....it's a small gain. Kind of makes me feel like I'm treading water. At least I'm better straddled around SLV price of 29.00 (silver 30). So, once again, I continue another day while options decay waiting for silver to confirm a direction. Sure seems like that direction is downward at this point. All charts saying down. My gut is too nauseated now to give me a read and that prolly means we have an up morning tomorrow followed by more weakness into the close. At this point, I don't even wish to guess, I just want to ride the straddle out. Sure would be nice to get a FUBM tomorrow so I can exercise both puts and calls, rinse and repeat.

As I'm sure we all know by now, the dollar tanked into the close and that is why I believe silver and the Ass&Pee 500 both rallied at close. I hope this marks the beginning of the dollar reversal and decline so that PMs can continue up this week. My physical keeps moaning that winter is coming and they need to gain some weight.

Good luck trading to all, and remember that my thoughts are worth exactly what you paid for them. Trade on your own.
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 7:25pm atlee
tonym9
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@Atlee

From Atlee:

"But I do know you should not rush things. Don't be in a hurry to put yourself in a position where emotion takes over. If you trade on emotion your done. Suppose you buy that AGQ and decide to sit on it for 2 months. In the meantime silver goes to 21 or whatever and you are buried. Everyday you will look at your account and hate yourself. Thanksgiving arrives and silver is now at 30 but you are still 200 points in the hole due to decay.

AGQ is not an investment vehicle. It is a trading vehicle for degenerates like Atlee. It you want to hold something, buy one of Eric's miners.

Do you even have a trading system that you are comfortable with or are you just going to take shots. If it is the latter, I guess we wont be getting to know you. Why don't you start with SLV. It is easy to short if you have a margin account and it won't take you to your knees as quickly as AGQ.

If you have been playing T ball and now you step into the batters box against a pitcher with a 90 mph fast ball, well you might as well step in front of it and hope it hits you in head. Your misery will end quicker."

Atlee:

I'll say it again: You have one of the biggest hearts in a trader's forum that I have ever come across and we are all lucky to have you (and others) as a source here. DON'T CHANGE A THING.

Thanks for your solid post last night. I won't hold AGQ long term vs active trading.

As I stumbled my way through charts and fundos/events until 3am (having to get up at 6 for work), your words rang true through all of it. I purposefully re-read that post again right before I closed my eyes. I ended up waiting on the sidelines. Even though it would have been a profitable trade today, I feel I did the right thing. I would not have been able to babysit the trade in ZSL. Big Ben speaking was the final issue for me. Big Ben trumped short term directional calls.

The purpose of a trailer is this very situation though, and I am going to have to make peace with pre-sets I think. Dangerous and deadly for a rookie to set a buy order, not be able to watch a volatile symbol, then depend upon a projected directional call that is fixated upon a selected number. Mouthful to say that I don't like the idea of no control, so babysitting has to be my system. Risk management must have complete and total control.

I am torn. I'm not a chartologist; I like to view them, but for me fundos and events are my chosen weapons in this street fight. So far I am very happy with my directional calls. I'm a little better than my "60% right" goal on paper. I totally agree that it's a different ball game when your looking at a 98mph heater vs virtual ball though, to use your analogy.

My system is directional. I'm not sure how it would be properly defined. Some would call it the Get Chopped Up Method, for sure. However I can't shake the thought of being right on the direction and not taking advantage of it. I'm not trying to get all of every call, just a percentage of it. I'd settle for small amounts on spot in my favor for a trade. I'm not trying to get a grand slam. I prefer to play WhiteyBall (old school STL fans get that), and manufacture runs.

I don't want SLV. I am hung up on a lack of multiplier. That's why I'm drawn to AGQ---WhiteyBall needs a multiplier.

To answer your question: My system is a short term directional system (up or down) for which I only want a percentage of spot using a multiplier like AGQ/ZSl that allows for WhiteyBall.

So, here's a question for all: Are there any of you who SUCCESSFULLY trade daily or even weekly, based upon events/fundos, with chartology as a confirmation of direction NOT a dictator of it?

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 8:05pm
sp001
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@Tony Yo man by multiplier

@Tony Yo man by multiplier you mean leverage. I don't think you will find too many people here who will encourage you to use it. You should practice losing small amounts of money. Once u have mastered that come back here and we will all teach u how to lose large amounts of $ with leverage

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 8:34pm tonym9
Grigeo
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Miners

"you want to hold something, buy one of Eric's miners."

Agreed, of course. And if you think that might be to dull for your tastes, jump on board for a spin. Make sure you buckle up and lock the harness down good. Silvercorp was a near death experience, which is still playing out. 5 - 10% intraday swings on a regular basis aren't exciting enough for you?

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 8:45pm Grigeo
MisesFan
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Grigeo - re: buy and hold

AGQ has a time decay factor. It is not a "buy and hold" instrument.

No one said the miners were not exciting or volatile.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 8:53pm MisesFan
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AGQ

"No one said the miners were not exciting or volatile."

Agreed, that was the point I wanted to make. You get leverage with the miners, enough volatility to kill a person, yet they are still (usually) safer than AGQ or ZSL. Actually, you get a LOT more drama in the Miners than the leveraged ETFs, and without the time decay.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 9:53pm
tonym9
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uh-uh, no margin leverage here

Dat chit be deadly man. I don't have the stones for it. Straight up. A man must know his limitations. I can't manage risk the way I'd like with that guillotine hanging over my head. A x2 fund is more than enough of a multiplier for me.

Miners are cool. But that involves individual stock picking/research, added to a directional pick of pm. I respect those of you who play that game. Too many pitfalls for me.

I want a clear directional play that is liquid so I can move in/out fast.

Have been researching UGL GLL too. Gold might be the 'easier' play here. I really like Gold right now. Silver not so much.

I still say downdraft week for silver here.

ZSL looks even more juicy tonight than it did last night at this time. Either way it's a short term play and I'd have to babysit. 12 hour JOB starts early tomorrow.

Trailing Stop? Maybe. Getting tired tho and may not have the brain power for calling my shot tonight. I'm cool with watching a little while longer.

Would rather play in an upward mo arena anyway. ZSL just scares me. For some reason I find it easier to watch/virtual play AGQ. Centric Bias on full display. I have have to clear that out....NOW.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:04pm
SSK
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THoughts for the night: 1.

THoughts for the night:

1. With crude recovering, maybe it's time to look at the oils. (I dabble in oils from time to time-- mostly the refiners-- as well as my two favorites SU (oils sands) and BHI.

2. How the hell can you short the European banks? Is there an European version FAZ? Preferably a quintuple ETF.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:17pm
Sockeye
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MINERS

One nice thing about miners is that if you make a mistake and it collapses there is no time decay of price like for an option. ETF's have fees that cause decay.

You own a straight stock. You could hold it for 30 years. I like to think of stocks as 30 year call options. Let me say that time has bailed out many people. Myself included.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:22pm
So It Goes
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Physical silver

I just posted this on the main blog - but thought that it would be appropriate to put it here also - in case it gets missed.

From Tulving's website:

"We Have Been Shipping to Customers An Average Of About 100,000 Ozs of Silver Every Working DAY Since Sept 23."

This is extraordinary - also Tulving appears to be sold out of "junk" silver - that has not happened for the past couple years that I have been visiting that site.

Be right - sit tight.

Keep stacking.

Tue, Oct 4, 2011 - 10:24pm tonym9
Invisible Hand
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Almost played some ZSL today

Almost played some ZSL today on the rebound to 30.20 @10:00... then my internet at work went out.

I'm sticking to ZSL and AGQ. AGQ got me into the mess I'm in.... but like you said its much less to worry about than a miner stock.

Regardless I'm playing it safe for the foreseeable future and committing very little. I'm taking this lack of a trend in PMs as a break to read books on TA, trading strategies, and the stock market as I have a lot to learn. Just reading this thread daily and seeing the posts from Pailin, Atlee, Rico, and SSK is inspiring... Someday I will be able to understand half the shit they post. LOL

randomness