Pailin's Trading Corner

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Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 3:42pm
Silver_Watchdog
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5 Year Daily Gold Chart -

5 Year Daily Gold Chart - 2008 Crash https://i56.tinypic.com/wr018k.png

Silver Watchdog

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 3:50pm (Reply to #6908)
RedRover
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1981 Roll Over

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPYLJoq_40Y

It's not the whole thing.. but, seems to be a clip that is able to give you the gist of it.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 3:56pm (Reply to #6910)
RedRover
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re: Beemer

I think you made the right choice.

Your biggest challenge is going to be keeping it a secret that you have it.
When you talk about it w/ people you know; reference paper silver.. or paper gold..
b/c a lot of people have money in the market.. ya know? Leaving people to think you have stocks.

Also, there are ways to insure your physical, as well.
I anticipate major highs in December, leading into January.


Cheers!

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:00pm
RedRover
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Margin Requirements

It would seem that we would continue to fall tomorrow (Monday)
in silver (&gold), because of the Margin Requirement implementation;
going into effect @ like 3 pm est on Monday (right?). Thoughts.

so now we know that Margin requirements helped to accelerate what has transpired.

here's a decent video by SilverTrader FM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skRQv5qzjUQ

p.s. though.. were margin requirements raised in ASIA, as well?

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:06pm
SilverWealth
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Granny Sunday in the Park with Dolf

Granny is not buying much of anything but bullion on Monday. She called her dealer on Friday but couldn't get thru it was so busy. Monday will be just as well if not better.

Granny feels the paper market in Silver is losing credibility faster than a crack whore losing molars. She wants more and more only to own the metal like her Chinese friends. One of her favorite MAs since there are more variants than there have been assasinated Roman Emperors is the 13/50 cross. This makes paper Silver a daytrade only status bounce play kind of like Dolf going after a rabbit. Maybe that comes as OE closes on Gold on Tuesday following margin rate riggings by our close friend and truly ethical Goldman operative, Gary Genzler.

Granny feels now that if one must take the Silver paper crack pipe then one should be hedged or have hedging plans at specific points. Regarding the Miners who took their teeth out completely on Thursday and Friday and fell to their knees. For longer term plays only and only ever as a smaller percentage of total port holdings. The game can ultimately be won with correct and careful accounting. Overrweighting in highly flameable issues is not good accounting and balancing and Granny is certainly guilty of it as well. These are her thoughts only.

And Eric King was out with the pom-poms again over the weekend. Rallying the troops. He is entertaining. He reminds Granny of a cheerleader with a huge megaphone at the Army-Navy game in 31'.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:11pm
Rico
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1)  Who slipped the angel

1) Who slipped the angel dust into the water supply, over the weekend? The comments are getting ever more, um, fanciful...

2) It really is amazing how many PM bulls, who were endlessly forecasting the next moonshot, now appear to have somehow simultaneously called the top, sold all their holdings, shorted 'em all the way down, and announced how any idiot could have seen it all coming. Man, that's some tradin'!

3) We now also seem to have a new contest about who can call the lowest low.. Call it the Silvah Limbo, mon--how low can you go??

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:19pm
l'idiot du village
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Silver got over hyped ?

No criticism meant of anyone here. My belief in Silver sorely tested this week. If we did get back to Low 20's , that's 2008 territory again. The store of Value / sound unit of account theory then a little Debateable, in my view.let's hope it doesn't happen. Gold holding up far better, But what if Italy (for instance)decided to sell it's 3500 tons ? PM safe haven theory therefore being put on hold for the time being IMHO.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:19pm
DefiniteMaybe
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Chart Analysis: Question on importing chart images

Hey guys,

I did an analysis of the recent price action in silver which includes charts (jpg) and an excel table. How do I import these from my hard drive? It seems I can only link from a URL address. I spent several hours doing this and I really want to share this and get the collective opinion of a potential short trade I am considering.

TIA

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:22pm (Reply to #6914)
beemer
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angels

They must be calling it as they see it,,at least I do hope they are..doesnt mean that holds forever,,,,,would hate for em to be still calling straight up wouldnt you ?

Brenda miller
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:23pm (Reply to #6914)
RedRover
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re: 1) Who slipped the angel

fan·ci·fulAdjective/ˈfansəfəl/

1. (of a person or their thoughts and ideas) Overimaginative and unrealistic.

Didn't see it coming. Where is the low? That's what I'm thinking (most definitely).
Is there a more pressing topic at hand? Seems to be what investors/speculators are
thinking about (those w/ powder ready to go); in response (backing up the truck).


Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:26pm (Reply to #6916)
RedRover
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re: Chart Analysis: Question on importing chart images

Do a print screen of the Excel & crop it in MS Paint.
Save it to your desktop and load it up to photobucket, then
use the photo tool on TF metals, to reference to the photobucket hyperlink.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 4:45pm
pailin
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odd

It is odd that everybody is throwing crazy lowball numbers out and shorting to the bottom (whatever that is??) and all. If you can believe that the number attached to silver price is that malleable then you should also think the same about all numbers called prices. Including the "price" of the dollar/euro/whatever your country calls "legal tender". So unless you're ready to join Mad Max camp (because that's just next door to the above sentences)...then hysteria to the downside is taking hold. Not here. I posted my lower targets because I'm a prudent buyer. I won't actually buy every tick down, just key points :) Won't be a seller until I need to be (dire dire straits my friends) or the overvaluing in price is so great it swaps too well against other stuff I want but don't have..yet (100 acres in TX for 1 oz silver anybody??) to ignore. That sort of hysteria is no different than KWN interviewees saying silver will be $400 by 12/31 or they'll jump off a building...

As always, everybody should define their own risk - mental and financial - and act appropriate to surviving to see the next sunrise. Some of us weren't buying all the way up though, so we can afford to buy now and more if it's lower too.

Lest there's any confusions - my paper is PHYS and PSLV and the rest is physical. Not AGQ, UGL or SPY :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 5:43pm (Reply to #6920)
RedRover
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Feel like it's a natural time

Feel like it's a natural time for a correction within a volatile market.

However,

August, I think they chopped off the top of the mountain and PM's should of gone
higher (and didn't), just like coal miners chop off mtn tops. They did it to PM's
rise in August; stunting it & we didn't see the actual rise (because it didn't happen).

But the momentum stays.. So let's say Silver.. it probably should of gone to
let's say 49 and then crashed down, but it was manipulated to not go as high.
Then, when it fall it falls as if it was actually @49 (though it wasn't).

Which made the plunge more difficult to anticipate. (with the mtn chopping),
because once the momentum changed direction, it just snuck up on us &
bamm, fell off a cliff and then margin requirements to further stifle it.

Overall momentum still remains down I think (b/c of margin hikes).
Cartel seems to be manipulating it, to make it go lower than it
would of gone to prepare for QE dollar dilution.

I think their stepping up their manipulation game.
11 am was their original ploy, now they have the 3 am beatdown too.
So, it can further disguise the 11 am & they can chip away as needed.

Though.. we should look for 3 points. That's how they roll 3 pivot points.
What are they 3 am is one. 11 am is one..there should be a third, I just
can't identify it. OK, peace guys. All the best & appreciate your insight.


Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 5:46pm
DefiniteMaybe
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Potential Swing Trade: Any Thoughts?

Hey Traders,

I’m an amateur trader and I would like you traders to weigh in on a potential swing trade I see coming. My thoughts are to short silver over the next couple months using Dec/Jan12 SLV Puts in the 20-25 range.

I started by looking for similarities in the price of silver for 2008 and 2011. The similarities may be due to what’s going on in the financial markets. In 2008 it was a liquidity crunch due to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and banks postings loses due to MBS’s, CDO’s, CDS’s, etc. This time around the liquidity crunch is being caused by European banks and their sovereign debt holdings. Though not exactly perfect, there is what I believe to be an approximation in silver price for the years in question.

From the charts I put together a table of key price points and their respective dates for silver beginning with the tops in silver on 3/5/08 and 4/29/11 (see below). I included the 200DMA as a guide to determine relative high and low swings points versus the daily close and to produce the RELATIVE column. (Based on Adam Hamilton’s analysis, when the daily price of silver is >1.40 (relative) to the 200DMA, that is a sell signal. When the daily price <0.90(relative) to the 200DMA, that is a buy signal. Over the course of the silver bull market this has been a very good signal of when to buy and sell.)

I could be completely wrong on this, but my gut and chart analysis expects a retracement over the next week or so to around $34. Then I expect a continuation downward given the weakness in the economy projected by the drop in commodities prices via the CCI. If this analysis is even close, I’ll be looking for a bottom around the last couple weeks of November and the first two weeks of December. The bottom will be in when there is an announcement by the Fed and/or coordinated action by the CB’s because of the pain in the markets to do something. This analysis flies in the face of PM seasonality, but then again who could have foreseen this kind of price drop in silver? Will see over the next few months how this pans out.

I would some experience traders to comment on this and let me know if I am way off or if this is a successful potential swing trade.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 5:49pm
DefiniteMaybe
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BTW: Thanks 41

It took some time, but I figured out a way (gawd am I slow) to upload the files without using photo bucket. Thanks for the tip though.

DM

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:27pm
atlee
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Yea thats freaking brilliant

Yea keep talking about shorting a market that has dropped 26% in a week. That is freaking brilliant.

This market is moving faster than you can obviously think. But go ahead and take the rest of the reactive souls with you please. That is the powder we need to prime the pop.

If you are going to be in THIS market, you need to be faster than asking for comments on a proposed short position.

Geez.

I am NOT saying you cant profit from the short side, but you better be nimble and understand your risk.

I suggest you stand aside until things have calmed down. Or maybe just go ahead and send a check to the Morgue.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:35pm (Reply to #6924)
CYM
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The time to short was last

The time to short was last week Monday, Tuesday, and/or Wednesday. Shorting now is crazy. Wait for the bottom then go long. If you want to short something, short financials.

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:42pm (Reply to #6916)
Sockeye
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Opening in Asia

the night time market opened at 6 pm sunday night new york time. It almost immediately went down $2 to $29.

Not a good sign. It looks like more weakness.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:50pm
Dr G
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The best way to make money

The best way to make money now isn't to short silver--it's to BUY physical silver at crazy low prices. A tube of ASE for under $700?! Awesome!

Sun, Sep 25, 2011 - 6:50pm
Blorf
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There's nothing left to short

There's nothing left to short at this point except large cap tech (AAPL). Everyone has rushed into that cash horde as a safe haven. If hedge fund and mutual fund redemptions keep up, that will be what gets sold.