Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:03pm
Maximillion
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Why is $ up, oil down, PM's up?

Hi all,

I've been following Turd since Jan and this is an excellent site, well don Sir.

I'm confused today as to why PM's are moving with the $ i.e up? Would someone please explain as it's the only reason I'm hesitant to buy Silver.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:08pm Joseph Lawrence
pailin
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Silver Flight to Safety

Joseph Lawrence wrote:

Does silver get the flight to safety with gold and the dollar as it did today? or does it diverge?

It does and it doesn't. When it trades as money, it's gold on steroids. When it trades industrial, it moves with oil and other demand destruction risks. That's what it's been doing lately. It should be sucking wind right now with oil, but gold dragged it up (aka shorts in both got blown up by algo buying on Euro weakness today). It will trade as money this fall. Not likely before.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:09pm
Sockeye
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Pailin Nice Bio.  I can

Pailin

Nice Bio. I can relate. One difference was I had one kid. Cost me a fortune and kept me broke. If you do decide to have a kid, have a boy. Don't have a girl. Way too expensive and they never learn to not spend.

I am up in New England also. Look out I might drive over to your place to sit and talk to you. As you have already helped me to learn to trade I intend to hang around here. I just found you a few minutes ago. I did not come to the silver forum yesterday. But all things are now in sync.

I am not trading yet and do not have an account. Still working hard all day every day to learn. It is amazing what I have learned these past weeks. My understanding has greatly increased.

So count on me to be trying to learn how to trade.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:15pm
Hi-Ho Silver
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240min Silver

Buy BLOOD and FEAR http://buysilvergold.org/
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:16pm
D E
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Update from earlier post

Not to speak ill of the dead, but Gil Scott-Heron was wrong; the Revolution IS being televised, and the feeds off ZH are pretty wild. People are pissed, and mobs have little patience or rationality. The Greek government either has to suck up the EU terms, and be overthrown (followed by default), or reject them, and default right away. EU banks, and the US guarantor, can't have that, so print they will.

I don't see how this is going to be bad for PMs, although the vol is going to stress us out a bit. I think this is why we get the dollar bid up and PMs bid up today. WTI will be shaky, and gold probably does better than silver, if the resolution is dragged out and economic activity grinds to a halt (see Egypt).

Sold my long paper silver at end of the day, but still long small paper gold here as EuroFolks prefer it to silver as their fiat gets trashed to paper over the PIIGS. Was tempted to play WTI today after inventory numbers, but that is my least favorite right now as MENA relatively quiet and economic activity even quieter. Also long July Corn, but Greeks not helping there.

History is unfolding in front of us. I'm going to try and profit from it...and prepare.

GLTA

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:16pm pailin
Joseph Lawrence
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Thanks Pailin - that's what

Thanks Pailin - that's what has gotten me confused from my newbie analysis, but I am (so far fingers and toes crossed) reasonably on target for what I was expecting in the intermediate QE period with the exception of the price action of silver. I am surprised by the strength it has shown consistently at $35 point and watching buying on SLV 3 min chart the upward movement was very much like a reverse EE raid. That is what is making me think there are some safety seekers buying in at pretty large volume (on a side not there was a 50 cent down 3 min candle at the end of the day on SLV with a volume of over 600k - very wierd)

Sincerely appreciate everyones experience and wisdom on Turd's been quite a learning experience.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:34pm
Sockeye
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Hi-Ho Silver Fantastic

Hi-Ho Silver

Fantastic chart. How did you graph that with what software and what data line for the data.

I love it. Please keep posting those charts on the blog as they are perfect learning tools for me.

5 gold stars for the chart.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 5:55pm
Bay of Pigs
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USD and Gold

Thanks guys and gals. BOP has been a long term investor in PM's. Only now trying to figure out how to trade on my own. This thread has already helped me out immensely. This is much easier reading posts than slogging through hundreds of comments before on the old site.

As I posted earlier today, gold has risen with the USD before. Aug 05 to May 06 gold went from $450 to 700 as the USD rallied along with it. try not to focus too much on the inverse relationship with the shit going down in Greece and the EU. This is bullish for PM's and cannot be discounted.

Good luck to everyone...

Aloha,

Bay of Pigs

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 6:17pm
Sockeye
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Pailin said.    Today's stink

Pailin said.

Today's stink bids - XAG 33.35, XAU 1481.

I'm already long XAU 1531.8 with a target sell 1544.

+++++++++++++++++++++

Palin

I have a very fundamental question about the Forex trading. I am pretty sure that XAU & XAG are forex symbols.

my understanding is that you are trading the Forex. As such on the forex I have a question. When you buy on the forex do you buy a full 100 ounce contract or do you buy any unit you want. and do you get leverage like on the comex or do you have to pay full price like with ETF's.

I google this stuff to learn but it does not explain this. Everyone thinks everyone knows all about Forex and ETF's and that is not true. They are strange animals to me until someone tells me what they are and how they trade. I am pretty much 90% there now. I just need to know the size and leverage on Forex trades. I understand the commodities. they are easy. You buy or sell units or contracts. like 5000 oz silver contract or 100 ounce gold contract. But no one says what the Forex trades as a size and leverage.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 6:58pm Sockeye
xaritas
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Spot metals on forex

Sockeye,

As I recall, lot size will vary by the broker. All serious forex brokers offer demo or paper trading accounts, some unlimited, some for a set time period. People here speak well of Oanda, but I haven't used them. If I were going to open a forex account outside of my regular broker I would look at Oanda or Dukascopy. You should be able to test drive either of them.

When I was researching forex, I found this site very helpful: https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/

For news websites with a forex emphasis, I like:

https://www.forexlive.com/

https://ransquawk.com/live

Getting a Twitter account and a client you can always leave running outside of a web browser is extremely helpful, too.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 7:14pm
Sockeye
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xaritas Do the forex people

xaritas

Do the forex people allow leverage???

In other words can I buy 100 ounces of gold for less than the price. $150,000 approx is a lot of money. I want leverage. On Comex you can buy that for under $6000. But that is probably too much leverage. But if I buy 100 ounces for $6000 and it goes up from 1500 to 2100 that will be a $6000 profit for double the money. HaHa working on the math the profit is $60,000 Holy Shit. Tom Mix. haha. Good thing I am learning or I might get all excited. haha. Wow that is a 10 Bagger.

This place is too much fun.

Thanks Guys You are all so good to me.

God Bless Turd for this site.

All I need is one contract of gold for a simple $600/oz profit. hahaha.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 7:28pm pailin
JoeKa
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35-36

Have to agree with Pailin here. The mini range from 35-36 is neutral no trade zone unless you don't mind the high risk low return. Remember you don't always need to have a trade position in play. Sometimes it's all about the waiting (Reminiscences). As for overnight thread I thank you for your kind remarks on my Late Night commentary. Personally I think any useful info I provide is offset by my voluminous outpouring of debauched and insane comments...which this forum format precludes there'll be less of. Except in chat! ;) I suspect also having moved onto a new project yesterday means that I'll have less time posting, but we'll see. Perhaps I'll contain my postings in Pailin's thread since we trade the same thing, I.e. XAG & XAU. As for trading I'm trying to adapt a more swing trading approach into my style - meaning I wait more, trade less, go in on high contract size and let it ride but without necessarily fishing for a bottom or top.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 7:45pm JoeKa
silverbleve
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Palins Pony

Glad to see we can still find each other on the new site, i like the idea of Palins own trading thread, i have gotten a lot of good info from you, among other things the relation of RSI on the 5 minute charts with bollinger bands and swingtrading. Many times it was just me, Palin, titus and Joeka on late night shift chatting up the board. But i wanted to say I'll be reading up and that I sent you a tip of the hat for all the good info thus far Palin. Also dig the avatar!

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 7:49pm Sockeye
xaritas
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Leverage and its discontents

Yes, but of course it works both ways. US firms are limited by the Frank-Dodd bill to 50x leverage, which should be plenty. Some firms outside the US offer up to 200:1 leverage (I think one allows 500:1).

With forex, or futures, a sudden movement in the wrong direction will use up all of your available margin, even if the condition lasts for only a tick. So a flash crash will wipe you out.

Also, when you buy on forex, the spread (difference between the buy price and sell price, which is the broker's fee) will put you immediately in the hole.

In sum, leverage is not something to start out with. I got much better at trading currency pairs on forex once I started using no leverage (all my positions were fully backed by the equity in my account). Even though I was only using 2x leverage, it was causing me to make bad decisions. I went though the same thing when learning options and figured I had fear/greed under control. Nope. So start small, go for a base hit or a walk or a hit by pitch, not a ten bagger.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 8:18pm
chetatkins
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Thank you

Thank you to all posting, and especially to Pailin for heading up the room. I am trading mainly equities in PM's, right now I am waiting for a possible low. I look forward to sharing outlook as the summer unfolds.

chetatkins
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 8:18pm
chetatkins
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Thank you

Thank you to all posting, and especially to Pailin for heading up the room. I am trading mainly equities in PM's, right now I am waiting for a possible low. I look forward to sharing outlook as the summer unfolds.

chetatkins
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 8:27pm
Sockeye
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xaritas Thank You.  if I

xaritas

Thank You. if I understand correctly. If I had a Forex account the firm specifies the leverage it allows me. different firms allow different leverage and the gov says the maximum for an american firm is 50X. way more than I would want to use.

So for me to trade without leverage then how much money do I need in the account to trade.

I am almost always wrong. But the fun in life is those few times when I am right.
Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 9:03pm Sockeye
xaritas
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New Thread

I moved this conversation over to a new thread:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/so-you-want-trade-forex/354

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 9:36pm
JoeKa
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A post about XAG patterns from Watchtower - extracted

@rishi: remember the earlier symmetrical triangle with the steep upslope I told you about on the H1?

Well Silver has now been trading BELOW that triangle containment. On the H4 however I'm seeing multiple bearish patterns developing since that earlier post.

First a bearish Ascending wedge which has completed its pattern in the current trading range.

Second, a bearish Ascending channel which shows that price action could reach low 34s.

Third, a bearish symmetrical triangle which shows that price could reach as low as (gulp) 30.58

The best compromise between all three formations is price bottoming at 32.51 - close to Turd's bottom.

Wed, Jun 15, 2011 - 9:36pm
JoeKa
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A post about XAU patterns from Watchtower - extracted

Again looking at the H4 chart for XAU I see an interesting formation on charts going back to 31 May. Gold actually posted a triple top formation peaking at 1553 in early June. Once that price was not taken out, the next highest peak 1549 was done on three days after - thus confirming the triple top. The current trading range more or less signals the completion of that triple top - though potential exists that 1504 could be tested as part of the TT downside completion.

I also see a bearish Descending wedge on the immediate term with the price action now trading BELOW that confine.

A further step back shows a bearish symmetrical triangle pattern which is currently in progress. This targets a price low of 1485 (gasp!) consistent with Turd's analysis on this thread.

The best compromise between all these patterns is for Gold to go as low as 1503 and finish up there.

Hope this helps.

randomness