Pailin's Trading Corner

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Sat, Apr 11, 2020 - 12:30am HappyNow
Titus Andronicus
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Premiums

Hi HappyNow.

I remember this happened during the 2008 crash where almost all physical silver was unattainable except at very high premium.

The only way to buy lots of physical silver was Tulving was selling raw 5000 oz Comex bars, with a several month wait. If you ordered, he would purchase a Comex contract and take delivery and forward it to you. The premium was quite reasonable, but I would imagine that it would be difficult to get a good price once you wanted to sell it.

In October, silver was around $8, and the premium was about $4. Something like that.

You can checkout the wayback machine on that:

https://web.archive.org/web/20080615000000*/www.tulving.com

Sat, Apr 11, 2020 - 4:35am
Titus Andronicus
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some data on the premiums

Here is the most sane explanations of current physical premiums and price action I've found.

Silver price beaten down but investors can’t find any, so what’s going on? Peter Hug responds
Sun, Apr 19, 2020 - 1:04pm
Titus Andronicus
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gold/silver ratio does not bode well for silver

This graph looks great or horrible depending on your viewpoint.

For me it looks quite horrible. I've got too much silver, not enough gold.

Honestly, this does not look good long term for silver. Or maybe it is just great for gold.

Sun, Apr 19, 2020 - 1:12pm
Titus Andronicus
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Marty's take on the economic outlook

Marty is saying that this downturn is much sharper than 1929.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-2...

Sun, Apr 19, 2020 - 11:40pm
HappyNow
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Yes, I expect this will be

Yes, I expect this will be brutal like the Great Depression unless we get things open by mid May. I'm just old enough to have heard a lot of survival stories while growing up, the good news is that it won't last 'forever'.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Mon, Apr 20, 2020 - 2:28pm
Titus Andronicus
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Oil just trading at 12 cents a barrel!

The June contract is still at around $20, but the May contract was trading at 12 cents!

You could buy a barrel of oil for delivery at 12 cents!!!!!!!

Holy cow! This shit is for real!

Things are going to get very, very, very wild.

Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 6:16pm
Titus Andronicus
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Armstrong MAY 2020 Virtual Conrona Conference $300

$300 for an Armstrong event is a great deal! It is a "virtual" event, and I have never attended an Armstrong virtual event, but the other events are awesome and much more expensive. I would strongly recommend it to anyone! (Though I can't guarantee you'll share my enthusiasm!)
Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 6:36pm
Titus Andronicus
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Armstrong Interview (today)

Here's Armstrong's take on the economic shut down.

He mentions gold/silver at 32:30

Martin Armstrong – President Has Power to Reopen Country
Thu, Apr 30, 2020 - 8:02pm
Titus Andronicus
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Any from the old gang, please chime in!

seems like I cn

47 Shane Shane. Come back!

Seems like I can't post a link to a video. Oh, well.

Thu, Apr 30, 2020 - 9:14pm
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Hello Titus

I'm still hanging around... daily... still trading a bit with my retiremnet account and stacking with all the cash that comes to us otherwise.

I can see the video...

Wed, May 6, 2020 - 10:57am
SSK
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Howdy all,

Howdy all,

What a run on the miners. Going into earnings, I concentrated most of my positions into the streamers, WPM, RGLD, and FNV. I have no confidence in any mining company management. None. KL, GOLD, NEM, AUY, and of course HL.

What I am keen on now is which miners will take the lead post earnings. I still believe in that mythical unicorn the butterfly trade: long gold, long S&P and short GDX/HUI/JNUG. I believe that certain miners (always in the GDX/J) find themselves in this trade's crosshairs and get shellacked by shorting. The only way to make money on miners is to identify the fast ponies and go big with them. Once you see a miner stall out on a good day should be a red flag.

During this run, I've gone heavy in GOLD, WPM, FNV, EGO, AUY and BTG. Will be interesting to see if they keep their mojo.

I also have made serious coin off MAIFF and NSRPF, but am out of the former as of yesterday and the latter this morning.

I have trailing stops on all three streamers above because they are toppy as fock.

Also, WTF is with JNUG and NUGT. I have to confess to taking a ratfracking on JNUG in the beginning of March. That was one of the most impressive short raids I've ever seen. Until I saw the USO.

Good luck. Things are interesting again in the most insane market of them all: gold stocks.

Thu, May 7, 2020 - 12:42am
Titus Andronicus
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Hey Guys!

J and SSK! How cool is that! Thanks for the leads on the Miners, SSK! Personally, I think miners are a good longer term trade. I'm waiting for an entry point to short the DOW and Italian Bonds. Please post every once in a while an let us know your ideas!
Fri, May 8, 2020 - 10:26pm
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Armstrong ...

Armstrong is saying significant events are PROBABLY coming over the next few weeks:

1) Gold seems to have topped for a while. (Long term he is now a bull. A pullback would probably be a significant buying opportunity in gold and miners)

2) The stock market either topped this week or will top next week. There is a panic in the dow and gold the week after next(18th), indicating this is a broader event (since both markets seem to be aligning in time).

3) Disconnects in EU financial markets seems to be coming in June. EU Bonds.

Sat, May 9, 2020 - 8:20am
tonym9
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Good to see some activity

That JNUG cliff dive in march sucked...bad. im crawling my way back up with it now tho being careful as hell and playing real hard to get. Currently flat looking for the morning smashes to take positions

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sat, May 9, 2020 - 10:19am
billhilly
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First time ever...

...to have used the BSBLS as a trade. I sold my AG position near the high early, flipped to JDST for a dollar scalp, then rebought the AG position at lod. Finally, a decent day of trading. BUT, holding JDST, even for a day trade, is harrowing business...at least for me. It is a bit easier now that it is 2X but still, being short in the mining stocks at this point is uncomfortable.

On TH I almost doubled my positions in 3 juniors (FFMGF, ANXGF, MPUCF). Dog's they are and have been, but the feel is that MAYBE, just maybe, these are ready to move up some.

Tony, I'm with Craig on this one...I think Silver is getting strong now and should give floor to the GDX/J. Optimistic !

GLTA

Wed, May 13, 2020 - 1:53am
Titus Andronicus
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short the dow and italian bonds

I'm short the dow and italian bonds (priced in Euros).

Wish me luck!

Sun, Jun 7, 2020 - 8:15pm
Titus Andronicus
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Taking another shot at shorting the dow.

Got stopped out of both those trades at a loss. (Italian bonds immediately, the dow took longer.)

I'm going back in to short the dow now.

The italian bond short is starting to look pretty juicy after the run up in the Euro.

Mon, Jun 8, 2020 - 9:42pm
tonym9
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Im still doing the JNUG thing

Im still doing the JNUG thing and have started playing more with JDST.

Ive almost made up the ground from the poleaxing I took in March. I figure 2 weeks and i'll be back to black.

I dont know where it goes. One day it looks promising, the next not so much.

Until the morning smash game quits that is my play. Sometimes I just try to get JNUG on the cheap, sometimes when Im feeling the brass I'll grab JDST like I did today.

Currently flat for overnight.

Every day is a new day. Setting aside the bias from the day before is one of the hardest battles.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jun 11, 2020 - 10:06pm
Titus Andronicus
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Bam!

Ching-ching!
Mon, Jun 22, 2020 - 3:04pm
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Martin Armstrong's Latest Interview

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