Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Apr 20, 2017 - 1:10pm
Dorothy
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Going back to bed... (or maybe not.)

Dumped everything, tried to top tick Nasdaq, thought better of it, bailed.

Maybe next time...

EDIT:

Changed my mind.

FURTHER (and final) EDIT:

So, for the sake of keeping score...

130% profit in oil... (Meh!)

25% loss in spoos...

12.5% loss in nasdaq, in about as many minutes, probably less...

(Normally use rather more leverage but still a tad too aggressive, lolz.)

Current open position in Nasdaq is depressingly sensible.

(On the plus side... Unlikely to keep me up at night.)

GLTA!

Thu, Apr 20, 2017 - 2:05pm
Dorothy
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Got drawn in... (Again!)

Juiced the position... Got hit for >60%

(Licking my paws, trying to stop the bleeding.)

EDIT:

So that was 4 trades, involving >10 positions, 3 bails...

(The price has yet to breach the first series of stops.)

Quintupled the original position, then dropped back to triple after getting scaulded.

(Not cool.)

Time will tell how stupid that was...

Fri, Apr 21, 2017 - 10:40pm
Dorothy
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WTO Most favoured nation status...

So it's nearly three am here and everyone has gone to bed, yet one thing is keeping me up, and it's this...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_favoured_nation

It's really pissing me off that this is absent from the discussion, like seriously, WTF???

(Not exactly rocket science is it?)

I know... Should really watch less TV.

Incidentally, anyone who thinks Marine Le Pen's going to become president of France needs their head examined, or at least a drug test. Entertaining as the election might be as political theatre, that is all it is, soz.

Anyhoo, done venting now, gonna get back to the more urgent business of finishing my rum and beating myself up about ditching a perfectly good oil position to tit about shorting indices...

Toodles!

EDIT:

@EU

Geto Boys - Damn It Feels Good To Be A Gangsta [Explicit]

SozLolz!

Sat, Apr 22, 2017 - 1:54am
Titus Andronicus
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Armstrong Interview

Marting Armstrong

One hour interview. They discuss gold at a couple different places. Interviewer seems to be a gold bug.

Martin Armstrong-Economic Downturn Will Take World to War
Sun, Apr 30, 2017 - 7:11pm
Dorothy
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Short FTSE...

Not sure why I picked that one but I did, toodles!

Mon, May 1, 2017 - 5:38am
Dorothy
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Thought better of it...

Saw a pattern I didn't like on the 15m.

Took a ~20% hit due to wide spreads but nothing I can't live with.

Meanwhile...

Blur - Bank Holiday - Parklife

Just for us europeans though, soz.

Mon, May 1, 2017 - 8:48am
Dorothy
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Short Oil...

Was looking for a bounce but...

Look out below, lolz.

(Drunk as a lord.)

GLTA!!!

EDIT:

Anyone looked at $gold:$brent lately...?

The weather girls- It's Raining Men Lyrics

(ACTION STATIONS!!!)

Mon, May 1, 2017 - 11:05am
Dorothy
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Closed out for ~50% on the day...

Ran out of tonic.

Didn't chase it down, drunk.

(Was trying to be sensible.)

Wed, May 3, 2017 - 2:45pm
Dorothy
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France...

So although unlikely, we do appear to have entered the realm of the possible...

https://m.france24.com/en/20170501-french-political-climate-mirrors-similar-USA-trump-election-surprise

https://www.euronews.com/2017/05/02/why-does-macron-arouse-so-much-hostility

https://www.euronews.com/2017/05/02/significant-melenchon-and-fillon-voters-intend-to-abstain-from-vote

Well that's it until I break out Google translate... Nonetheless tres interessant, n'est pas...?

Video unavailable

EDIT:

Despite media hystrionics, we are not witnessing the rise of the far right in Europe but rather the death of eurofederalism...

The problem being that due to an undemocratic consensus, this requires the involvement of groups from the fringes of the political spectrum, left or right but...

This is only a temporary aberration.

And for those who are, I'd suggest, unduly concerned...

The nuances of the French Constitution would make a Le Pen victory largely symbolic, except in relation to the EU, where it would be devastating.

(Either it would represent the next domino to fall, or confirmation of those to follow.)

Wed, May 3, 2017 - 4:15pm
Dorothy
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Further to...

Annoyingly​ was on the phone and missed the chance to change confirmation of to prelude to, which would have sounded way cooler innit. Anyhoo, neh bother...

What is currently being decided in Europe gradually, wittingly or not, is whether the nation state will survive the next inevitable euro crisis...

Although the final decision will be made at the point of crisis, the underpinnings are being made now; fiscal union or sovereign independence, it is a binary choice.

The eurofederalists would like this decision to be made in a state of panic...

Things however, it would appear, are no longer going their way.

EDIT:

The implausible entering the realm of the possible would have sounded way better too...

But I'm on my fifth cider now, which always helps, and it was meant to be just a brief post, lolz.

I rescued a dog today though, that's got to be worth something, toodles!

Wed, May 3, 2017 - 4:23pm (Reply to #41825)
pailin
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eyeswideopen wrote: Hope

eyeswideopen wrote:

Hope you're livin' life Mr. P.

I am. thanks ;)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, May 4, 2017 - 10:36am
Dorothy
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Closed June 4700 WTI Puts...

125% booked.

Takes the edge off.

@Pailin

Good to hear, best to you and yours!

EDIT:

Looks like I may regret it but front month options make me nervous.

Thu, May 4, 2017 - 12:24pm
Dorothy
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Chased it down for ~200%...

First for 100%, then for 50% then for a slight loss...

(Got nervous.)

Would have just bought back the options but the spreads on IG are eyewatering.

Have bought some other stuff in the meantime, which I'm keeping under my hat.

Anyway, have learned that the time to bail is after the third hit.

(The next one is invariably a disaster.)

EDIT:

Was increasing size on the way down (ie. Juicing) that's why the numbers don't add up.

FURTHER EDIT:

Not trading the bounce, risk reward is shit and I always miss the turn.

(Invariably turn early and it all ends in tears.)

Assuming there is a bounce, could just crater...

But I suspect that's not "allowed".

Thu, May 4, 2017 - 5:45pm (Reply to #41839)
Weasel Tracker
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See what I see?

I am hoping for a run to $17.50/18.00 before the crash. Think it will happen?

Fri, May 5, 2017 - 8:35am
Dorothy
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908

Closed June 4450 WTI Puts...

A shade under 500% booked.

Kinda wish I'd bought more now.

Tue, May 9, 2017 - 12:58am
Titus Andronicus
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Will we get the Armstrong gold drop to $1000?

Armstrong has questioned his previous statements that gold would drop below $1000. This would be a sharp drop followed by a slingshot to the upside.

He has stated over the last 6 months that we are perhaps running out of time for $1000 gold.

But he has also stated over the last 6 months that this possibility cannot yet be ruled out.

If we do get $1000 gold, it would be great! We would get a chance to really load up and it would almost certainly be followed by a sling shot to the upside!

I hung onto about half of my physical from the last bull run. I sure wish I had unloaded all of it! But I would love a chance to load up on more gold and silver bullion! And more miners!

If we get the chance, don't lever so high you can't withstand a stop down to $750 or so. After the drop to $1000, it should not take too long to hit the bottom and reverse.

Happy Trading!

Wed, May 10, 2017 - 11:25pm
Titus Andronicus
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The long term wedge in gold

The picture isn't that great, but you get the idea.

You can't see the scale, but this covers 22 years of gold price, with 1996 on the left and 2018 on the right.

There's are two quite long term wedge in play which dates back to 2001 or 1999, depending how you mark the start of the bull market.

The first wedge will break up or down before November this year.

The second wedge (which is off to the right of the graph) will break up or down by May 2018.

Really, we could break up or down at most any time.

If we do break down, which I really hope happens, it won't stay down for long, and will hopefully be sharp and strong and quick. Followed by a spectacular sling shot up to $5k or so!

If it just breaks up, it will be OK ... but not nearly as much fun! (Or as fast or profitable!)

Mon, May 15, 2017 - 5:16pm
Titus Andronicus
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Armstrong's concise explanation of coming sovereign debt crisis

Short and simple explanation from Armstrong about how and why the sovereign debt crisis will unfold.

Although he does not yet seem to be certain of the timing, he seems highly certain that this will result in a crazy explosion in stocks in the near future: "flight from bonds to equities".

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/the-coming-...

I've heard him say that this is a rarer-than-once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity, though he is not so optimistic about the social implications (risk of total state control, etc.)

Wed, May 17, 2017 - 7:03pm
Dorothy
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Did something really stoopid...

Ditched a bunch of gold june 1240 calls for 70% loss last week to raise money for otm june wti puts, which in itself was dumb...

Then gold spiked on opex day putting them in the money...

(Missed out on a good 200% but realistically rather less than that.)

Feel more than slightly cursed.

Really need to stop trading front month options...

(Just a moth to a flame innit.)

Gonna stop posting for a bit 'cause I don't want to jinx [REDACTED]

All the best and GLTA!!!

(Just looks better with three exclamations.)

EDIT:

Re Brexit, since that's the only thing I get tipped for since I stopped posting charts...

https://brexitcentral.com/lord-flight-potential-cost-city-loss-passporti...

(Explains Miffid2, equivalency rules etc.)

Thu, May 18, 2017 - 5:19am
Dorothy
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Wallowing in self pity...

Also dumped SPX 2375 May puts (Expiry today for my platform) and SPX 1250 June puts at a loss...

All because I got cross with oil.

There is a moral to this story...

EDIT:

So rather than "be right and sit tight"...

The above is a text book example of be right, get cold feet, bail at a substantial loss and bulk up a hopelessly overleveraged position that's already gone against you.

(Had 44-46 June WTI Puts.)

Could have worked though.

(Still fucking retarded.)

FURTHER EDIT:

Trying to find solace in the fact that all these moves were event driven...

(It's not working...)