Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 10:14pm tonym9
redwood
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I have the deepest respect

I have the deepest respect for your (and your son's) service to your country and painfully understand your anger. We've all been waiting for gold to rise, but it has always been clear that when that happened, crisis would be the price. War, jobs, economy, famine....

Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 10:45pm
tonym9
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Thanks Redwood. I was active

Thanks Redwood. I was active many years ago, and honestly my service was paltry in comparison. My son's was much more recent and close in, thank God he is ok - happy, healthy, and whole. He has many military friends that aren't. I need to clarify, the vet I took care of today was for a dental cleaning, not anything else.

1271.45 is the current hi

If we hit Russian targets and I were Putin I would strike something US in theater DURING the market hours for max disruption. A small target, just enough to grab headlines. Putin wins when oil goes up. Putin wins if the US stock market drops drastically. Putin wins if he destabilizes the Euro, NATO, and creates havoc in the ME to distract.

This is not just about the theater, this battlefield has many facets.

I hope and pray we did not do anything to give Putin cover for any move. If so, this will ratchet up very quickly as Trump will go tit for tat with him.

Don't forget, Chinese leader in Florida...this is also about NoK have no doubt about that.

I do not want to see anymore boots polished and empty...

------

Market thoughts...I feel dirty even thinking about it. But this sets up a tug of war between a strong NFP and geo-political headlines in the morning.

------

EDIT: Many write about SHTF and preparedness but I wonder if those writing really understand there is no limit to the need you will have in a SHTF true scenario. Pain and loss will abound, resources will dwindle...lives will be lost. Maybe I'm just getting old, but I do not want to see such things...I mentally view them through the eyes of my wife and children and can not bear to envision more than a glimpse...the possibility of that outcome chills me to my core.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 10:46pm
redwood
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Well you may have already

Well you may have already read this:

https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/04/06/trump-syria-military-options/

“I think the key complexity here is: We would not want to attack a Syrian target at which there were Russian forces. We would not want to kill Russian forces in such an attack, because that obviously could lead us into a war with Russia,” former Deputy Director of the CIA Michael Morell told CBS News. “So I’m pretty confident that the Pentagon was confident that there were not Russian forces at this particular air field.”

I had an even dirtier thought: inject price hikes with paralyzing headlines, then bring them down with NFP which I am almost certain now will be high. I guess we'll know soon enough.

Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 10:49pm
tonym9
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I hope the writer of that

I hope the writer of that report has it on good authority. Avoiding a Russian target is absolutely paramount. No cover can be given to Putin...nor can we poke the bear in the eye, for that bear has claws and teeth and a brain quite advanced.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 10:51pm
redwood
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Also if the Russians or the

Also if the Russians or the Iranians don't react to this event, gold will drop off quickly. I am NOT looking forward to tomorrows' events. Between this and meeting with Xi, which is also huge, it will be eventful.

Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 10:58pm
tonym9
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Redwood I have to agree with

Redwood I have to agree with you on the dirtier thought...I have had the same. Spike gold and silver tonight before NFP, then calm the market somewhat right before NFP via an early morning press release saying the after action reports confirm no Russian targets were hit, then hammer longs with a strong NFP. It would be the most effective course of action to shut down a Spring rally.

Dear God I hope we are wrong. If the levers are that coordinated we have no chance...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 11:03pm
redwood
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Yeah, unfortunately I am

Yeah, unfortunately I am thinking there won't be a spring rally. The HUI looks like it's just about to drop off. Now, Avi did say that a pullback would be short lived and one can see that on the HUI, so the rally may only be temporarily deferred. He did say not to trade ETF's till the fall, which is where I think he thinks the rally will take hold. Well, we've only be waiting 6 years, what's a few more months? :)

Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 11:08pm
redwood
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Long day tomorrow with work

Long day tomorrow with work (and the market). See ya in the am.

Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 11:24pm
billhilly
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reading along...

...not much to say. This stuff saddens me. Thanks to you guys for your inputs...misery loves company.

Thu, Apr 6, 2017 - 11:27pm
tonym9
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1022pm cst per

1022pm cst per investing.com:

GOLD: 1266.45

SILVER: 18.41

USD: 100.56

USD/JPY: 110.43

I need to hit the rack myself...a few hours of sleep and trading begins at 445am. Tomorrow will require clear thought and laser focus.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 5:08am
Scarecrow
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Fake News... (Ripped from RT)

RT Idlib Sarin Gas Attack

Past articles from reuters, re syrian rebels use of sarin...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-turkey-idUSBRE94T0YO20130530

Very disappointed by The Donald.

(Not a big fan of War.)

Going back to sleep again now 'til my cheque from the Kremlin arrives...

(That's how it works, right?)

EDIT:

More lies and propaganda from RT...

RT Lavrov/Reported Chemical Attacks by Rebels

(Lavrov statement 1:25)

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 6:46am
redwood
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Agree.  Miners have barely

Agree. Miners have barely moved in relation to what is going on.

https://sputniknews.com/politics/201704071052387907-syria-us-strike-russia/

"At the same time, in Putin's opinion, total disregard for the use of chemical weapons by terrorists only drastically aggravates the situation," Peskov said.

Doesn't look like Putin will be retaliating.

Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 6:58am
tonym9
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JDST was 13.04/13.06 right at

JDST was 13.04/13.06 right at 5am premarket open, at 507 it sits at 13.15/13.25, 34000 shares traded.

I'm waiting/watching, it should be lower than this IMO.

JNUG was 7.33/7.35 at 5am, it sits at 7.27/7.29, 201000 shares traded....it should be higher IMO

EDIT:

Premarket Report, 515am:

per netdania.com

GOLD: 1266.55

SILVER: 18.41

USD: 110.69

USD/JPY: 110.60

per scottrade ticker;

GDXJ: 37.37/37.55

JNUG: 7.26/7.28 with 223101 traded

JDST; 13.14/13.21 with 43821 traded

GDX: 23.89/23.92

NUGT: 10.34/10.35

DUST: 26.76/26.90

GLD: 120.38/120.40

SLV: 17.43/17.45

EDIT: in JDST at 13.20 after waiting on a drop that didn't come...might be a little early here but the moves are proportional

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 7:49am
tonym9
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sold the 13.20 JDST at 13.35

sold the 13.20 JDST at 13.35 on that spike, awaiting a little better entry, may not get it. will pay up if need be before NFP to get JDST position but expect it to come back down some before. LSO set at 13.15 but will prolly raise it soon.

glad to see that post Redwood. Putin doesn't respond and we are better for it. looks like the reports that we told Russia we were coming just before we did are accurate...either that or we have very very good intel showing no Russian assets were in the grid coord's. either way i'm a bit relieved this morning.

EDIT: here we are right at resistance...is it support now? We'll find out shortly. 5 min chart of USD/JPY looks like it should tick back down a bit here, bring gold back up a little, giving me my second JDST entry of the morning....watching

EDIT's EDIT: Gold is not responding to the downward ticks in USD/JPY, it is continuing to fall. Bought JDST back at 13.40 as it appears gold wants to continue to fall. I don't think the resistance levels of 1262ish are going to hold as support...we dip back below before NFP IMO

...damn. theres the uptick in gold. gold appears to be on a delay. ask is holding firm on JDST at 13.39 so far, bid has dipped to 13.33.....these are micro moves only playable by those who are in/out fast and are nimble. Holding JDST is prolly the better move here if you feel NFP will be strong/gold negative. But, I like to play in traffic...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 8:23am
tonym9
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34 minutes out from NFP:per

34 minutes out from NFP:

per investing.com:

GOLD: 1265.25

SILVER: 18.35

USD: 100.73

USD/JPY: 110.66

JDST: 13.33/13.43 252000

JNUG: 7.14/7.16 930000

GDXJ: 37.16/37.29

DUST: 27.02/27.08

NUGT: 10.25/10.26

GDX: 23.83/23.84

GLD: 120.21/120.22

SLV: 17.37/17.39

...still in 13.40 JDST

The announcement comes from the well dressed man pacing the game...place your bets boys the ball is running......red or black what's your flavor? Don't forget the green monster he adds with a wry grin. The players eye the ball as it spins with little hesitation. They grab the clays slowly moving them in and out of sweaty fingers. Some begin to think about covering favorite numbers, some think of covering the color of momentum, some think about the range...low medium or high? All are hopeful at this point, but deep down they all know the odds are against them. Everyone glances at the newlyweds...a young man with his pretty wife...all can see the worry lines on the young man's face...his wife holds the black chips as he spreads his clay.... They all know the kids are in a game they will never win, but each still plays and cheers on the newlyweds. Even the heavy hitter with several black chips in his hand who always moves at the last second as the hand comes up to wave...he knows but he still plays. It's the lure of easy money for the newlyweds....but the heavy hitter is there for the game, the rush, the watching. He enjoys the young couple, not for sport but for innocence. Will they learn before they lose it all? The last time he covered Black and won...this time? It doesn't matter. The game is watching...

--------Which are you? You better know cuz Mr Market has already sized you up and found your weaknesses. Identify them yourself before they are exploited by the one with no emotions.....Mr Market.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 8:42am
redwood
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Payrolls rise by 98,000. 

Payrolls rise by 98,000. Much below expected. I was wrong. Now to watch how metals will respond over the day.

Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 8:53am
tonym9
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wow, didn't see that

wow, didn't see that coming....below expectations by almost 50% !!!!!

still in JDST at 13.40, I'm waiting on USD/JPY equilibrium to come back as it often does on big report days. Will exit fairly close to entry. Right now it's floating about 12.95-13.00 so I'm down a net .25 or so... What is shocking to me is JNUG, it should be flying right here, but instead is at 7.34 ???? We just broke and held resistance? What gives?

USD: 100.71 as I type....uh oh

GOLD: 1268.85

SILVER: 18.42

USD/JPY: 110.65 and climbing

Honestly I'm not sure which way this goes at open. But failing to hold resistance before open would solidify my JDST position for the day.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 8:55am
tonym9
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aw hell....USD/JPY just blew

aw hell....USD/JPY just blew past this mornings area prior to NFP and gold is falling fast. Still in JDST. JDST Green before 0pen?

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 9:09am
tonym9
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that one minute of gold looks

that one minute of gold looks really ill. i am shocked that NFP did not hammer usd. instead it looks like the beatings in pm/miners are about to commence. still in JDST.

i'm thinking Russia not taking any hits will calm the market which means you can erase the spike that put us over resistance. NFP failed to hold the spike which negates its effect. I think we are headed down here.

Redwood it looks like in a round about way we may have been right after all by thinking gold/miners were going to get hit...JDST is back up to 13.21/13.24 as I type.

THERE IS TREMENDOUS HEADLINE RISK HERE TODAY, DO NOT GET COCKY....he yells to self....

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Apr 7, 2017 - 9:29am
tonym9
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uh oh...if this fails look

uh oh...if this fails look out below

JDST: 13.24/13.25

I may hold into open

EDIT: USD still holding on, is at 100.83....I'm holding JDST into open...I may regret that but gold's chart looks very very ill

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.