Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Jan 12, 2017 - 1:11pm
Dorothy
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Long $Silver....

Tight stop.

Thu, Jan 12, 2017 - 1:53pm
Dorothy
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Long $Gold....

My funeral.

Thu, Jan 12, 2017 - 3:13pm
Dorothy
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Short USDX...

@Tony

Beats yesterday, that was nuts.

Thu, Jan 12, 2017 - 3:38pm
tonym9
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this is one of those hi freq

this is one of those hi freq overtrading days where i'm making myself dizzy. i've been in and out of jnug/jdst so much today im not sure how many trades i've actually done, but it's been an AWESOME day. where/when i can follow with work considerations i have been. USD/JPY clues all over the movements today.

currently in jnug at 8.56, a little premature on that one but i'm prolly holding until i get home and can play a/m since only one more fomc left, mother fellen in about 4 hours

EDIT: well crap, got busy and just checked and jnug down .50 from my entry...is what it is, still an awesome day. will let it ride for the last 30 and then a/m trading....114.70s looks like a short term USD/JPY chart top.

JAL: crazy indeed, go get em

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jan 12, 2017 - 7:21pm
Dorothy
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@Tony

Sorry, I take it back...

Wrong Week

(Was preoccupied with the wrong 12 charts and missed the bounce.)

EDIT:

Stopped out of $Gold...

FURTHER EDIT:

Closed $Silver...

(Another day perhaps.)

Fri, Jan 13, 2017 - 8:16am
Dorothy
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Closed Short USDX... (Terrorism?)

Reports on Twitter...

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Marseille

Tight stop so closed for a small gain.

EDIT:

Most likely not...

https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/5nqadb/numerous_twitter_reports_of_explosions_in/?sort=confidence

Believed to be sonic booms or gas explosion from a housefire but still unclear...

https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/Marseille/

Fri, Jan 13, 2017 - 9:05am
tonym9
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I held the JNUG

I held the JNUG overnight...don't like to do that but sometimes set up and positioning dictate. So, I've only got one trade today which is to sell the position. DXY is at 101.09 and falling.

Thanks for the heads up JAL. I'm watching USD/JPY close. CNBC hasn't said anything yet.

Turd posted that margin requirements for gold were lowered 10% yesterday. Not sure if it translates, but since the May Massacre I always pay attention to moves either way.

GLTA

EDIT: sold at 8.41 seconds before retail sales...USD spikes to 101.36

Edit's Edit: Due to DTBP limitations I can't do what I normally do today....so I took a smallish (max for today) position in jnug at 8.06

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jan 13, 2017 - 9:05pm
pailin
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Need that Dow dip ;) Until

Need that Dow dip ;)

Until then...patience.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sat, Jan 14, 2017 - 9:54am
tonym9
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I did the math on Thursday's

I did the math on Thursday's trading last night. I traded 16 times, had 4 bad trades, and made 8% in a day. I have the nagging feeling that I am overtrading, but with results like that it's hard not to. Since I exclusively trade the pm x3 funds, getting in and out fast is the only way I've found to lower the risk. I seem to do best when the USD/JPY is 'waving' like it has been the past few days since it gives nice clues about delayed reactions in JDST/JNUG. I've found the movements in NUGT/DUST happen faster so I like the junior trading more right now.

P I do think you will get your DOW drop. At a minimum a good bear correction. I just can not see how a RINO lead congress is going to approve a democrat style spending plan like Trump wants. He'll get some of it, but not all. If you do the math it's staggering. Defense, Tax reductions, infrastructure...just those things alone on envelope math are going to touch 10T... I just don't see it, then the bottom of the TrumpHopium Rally falls out. Just my skeptical view though.

With markets closed in the US on Monday, I think pm will rise a bit. But I think we are approaching the end of this run and expect a pullback. I will be leaning JDST/DUST Tuesday, but will play JNUG/NUGT if the charts look right for scalps.

OT: The national and Texas tests for Home Inspectors is a butt kicker. If any of you live in an unregulated state and are in the process of buying a home, you need to make sure your inspection is done by someone who has at least passed the national test. I'm looking at the end of Feb now for the tests, the studying is slow going while trying to balance life with it. At least I'm warm. We hit 80 a few days ago. 70s today, meeting a friend for another home inspection observation today so glad it's warm this time. 35 on a roof sucks. I don't know how you guys do it up there.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jan 17, 2017 - 7:33am
tonym9
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and there's the pop...in

and there's the pop...in jdst at premarket open 18.51....watching USD/JPY closely.

the chart USD/JPY says this is a knife catching event, i'll give up a pinky as a stop if need be.

will be interesting to see what NY does today. obviously i'm playing for a gold beat down.

is gold allowed to have a $100 move from the recent lows? we're about to find out

USD/JPY 112.77, USD 100.47 (IMO low of day), 1217.45 gold

EDIT: took profit at 18.90, LBO at 18.45 for the drive in

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jan 17, 2017 - 2:33pm
tonym9
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So after 4-5 JDST trades I

So after 4-5 JDST trades I had built up 1.23....entered last JDST trade at 19.00, sold at 18.31 per, ouch...kept looking for the USD/JPY to come back...didn't. Flipped to JNUG at 9.26 due to USD/JPY looking like the bottom may fall out of it. USD getting close to round number 100. We shall see

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jan 18, 2017 - 10:33am
tonym9
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sold the jnug last night for

sold the jnug last night for a few cents loss so i could keep the dtpa avail for today

in dust this morning, looking for the usd/jpy cross to comeback some

this may end up being a long term hold (for me, defined in days) partially based on the fed goon schedule the next few days and my computer avail is going to be severely limited

once the mid course correction comes (if it does) i plan to go long jnug/nugt and hold. trying to time the final buy around the end of the first week of feb and plan to hold thru april...all of this is based on last year's activities which seem to be a good map for this year, so far

glta

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Jan 18, 2017 - 4:21pm
tonym9
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didn't get all of it but

didn't get all of it but happy with the pieces of DUST/JNUG I did grab...

holding jnug overnight, can't day trade tomorrow but will be able to on friday, set a LSO to see if it gets hit....expecting 9 handle on jnug tomorrow

looks to me like that was the better part of the comeback of the USD/JPY...we shall see

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Jan 19, 2017 - 11:19am
tonym9
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exited jnug at 8.49, just

exited jnug at 8.49, just don't like the action right now. watch it hit 9 handle before close. now flat as can't babysit this afternoon. will reattempt daytrades tomorrow due to dtbp limitation.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Fri, Jan 20, 2017 - 5:04am
Dorothy
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Got killed...

Going into Draghi I was...

Short WTI, SPX, Nasdaq, FTSE, DAX, Nikkei, USD/JPY

Long EUR/USD, Silver and Gold

It didn't end well.

Fri, Jan 20, 2017 - 7:58am
tonym9
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Ouch JAL bbut youve been

Ouch JAL but youve been doing great so it was bound to happen. Youll get it back next trade

In JNUG at 8.05 premarket, feel fortunate to get that entry after missing yesterday...hoping USD tanks on today's events, but there is no way to predict what will happen today.

glta

EDIT: sold jnug 8.22, awaiting next entry

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sat, Jan 21, 2017 - 7:48am
tonym9
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weekly trading

weekly trading report:

Tuesday and Friday were the main trading days this week with Wednesday being the worst loss of opportunity day and Tuesday having the worst actual trading loss of the week.

Monday was out/busted due to work. Tuesday was ok mostly JDSTng where I had one really bad JDST loss and one light JNUG loss that combined to wipe out half of the day's profits. Wednesday should have been better...I was right on the Fed goon prediction but didn't really capitalize...that was a missed opportunity even though I did make some money on the move...as usual I entered too early and exited too early trying to juggle work. An overnight hold Wednesday killed Thursday's trading. Friday I went lights out and made up for the week...mixed with JNUG in the morning and JDST late afternoon...held losses to about 10% of the day's action...AWESOME day!

On the week I went 16-4 and am up 14% on the week with only one really bad trade the entire week being on Tuesday.

The best trading results are coming from base hits, in/out quick multiple times a day....akin to an 80's Baseball Cardinals team philosophy defined as Whiteyball....manufacturing runs.

Drilling down on successful trades: Premarket trades seem to be good and end of week trading seems to be the best. Early to midweek afternoon trading is where I seem to be stumbling. I'm seriously considering not trading the pm hours of Monday and Tuesday, possibly Wed. I need to go back and check my work schedule, I bet I'm having serious conflicts with juggling trading and work schedules at those times....

In going back and reading my notes about where I thought moves were going....it appears schitzophrenic to me, but the one thing I am very glad to see in my writing is that I am not married to a direction....each day is graded on its own merit by the overnight moves/daily newsfeed/morning chart clues....a very good thing for a daytrader who is more like a minute trader.

Things to work on:

-controlling the size of the loss...work is killing my trading lol...not sure best way to do this except for using computer stops which I don't want to do...mental stops only work when you are there to execute...too often I get slammed when I step away....have to think about this....FOMO? Better planning of the day's activities measured for trading op's seems to be the best solution. Not trading at all???which I've started to do on busy days.

-better entry (fighting FOMO)

-getting rid of the nagging feeling I'm overtrading....WhiteyBall is working for me, so go with it and embrace it.

This after-action trading report brought to you by the 1982 World Series Champions...The St. Louis Cardinals...a team that I can still recite the starting lineup of...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sun, Jan 22, 2017 - 9:47pm
Dorothy
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@Tony

Great post!

Thanks for the encouraging words but that last "incident" was brutal, had been rolling profits and derisking positions to free up margin for new ones, only to have it all blow up in my face in spectacular fashion.

...basically was massively overextended, which was fine from a technical standpoint but took no account of headline risk.

Not fun watching a few weeks of effort go up in smoke.

Anyhoo, cobbled together something from the ashes, so I guess we'll see how it ends up.

Generally take the attitude that frequency is the enemy so over the last few weeks have been watching huge paper gains build only to evaporate and take my opening stop as well.

Easy to say you should take the fast money but then you inevitably end up missing the larger move if/when it comes.

Basically I need to be more consistent in terms of size and risk profile but having an issue with being undercapitalised.

...Likewise having an issue with size being too low to split positions and take money off the table, which worked well when I did but involved using inaproriate amounts of money.

Obviously what I'm doing doesn't necessarily apply to many here, since I'm spreadbetting with crazy leverage and insured stops, which have distance restrictions...

That said though, I only increased the size and number of positions because it was working, ie. the market was beginning to roll over and the idiocy only kicked in after I'd already been torched by Draghi/China.

In my experience it's what you do next that really matters...

That's when it's hardest not to chase losses.

(Problem is, if you get away with it... can be very profitable.)

So, shock horror, the resident alcoholic has an issue with discipline.

EDIT:

Got aggressive when I should have been defensive and swapped some solid positions for riskier ones... Got owned.

...but hey, you live and you learn, hopefully.

Mon, Jan 23, 2017 - 12:49pm
Dorothy
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Long $Silver...

[REDACTED]

Mon, Jan 23, 2017 - 1:08pm
Dorothy
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Long $Gold...

I think you know why...

randomness