Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Nov 23, 2016 - 9:56am
tonym9
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took my jnug medicine. was

took my jnug medicine. was holding on thinking none of the bond moves make any sense. this morning gold broke 1200, and usd/jpy broke 112....i sold. ouch. Flipped into a 1/4 DUST position in the premarket.

not unlike other times that i have held one of the x3 funds, i'll have to make it back. is what it is. not like i haven't had to work back from a loss before, but damn this one just plain hurts and not due to the monetary loss. I WAS FREAKIN RIGHT, but even with that, I WAS FREAKIN WRONG.

Trump wasn't supposed to be elected. I positioned for him to be. Overnight I looked like a hero to myself. I went to bed election night to get an hour of sleep before getting ready to work, having watched just gold hit 1338 and settling around 1310, thinking great thoughts for my trading account. While getting ready the premarket opened and my JNUG hit 14mids. I then watched it go to 13, and I thought I should bail for risk management. DUST was 30 per share. But I had it in my head that when the open came gold and JNUG would run like scalded dogs. Work got in the way and I couldn't check the market until 11 that morning, by then the hit had happened...and the hits kept coming.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

SO...back to the day trading grind. It is what it is.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Nov 23, 2016 - 11:00am
tonym9
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took DUST profits, rolled

took DUST profits, rolled into NUGT for a rental on a bounce

NEVER hold a x3, ever....have said this to myself several times, made an exception for the election....NEVER EVER HOLD x3

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Nov 23, 2016 - 11:59am
Titus Andronicus
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long time no see

Hi Guys,

It's been a while. I wanted to give a shout out to any old buddies out there and give a bit of an update.

"Hey Guys!"

So, I've become an Armstrong guy over the last few years. Big time. I've been to several of his annual meetings, which are very good. I does take some time to get up to speed on his system.

I thought I would give you my take on what's coming, which is really nothing more than Armstrong's take. This would have been a more useful post a week or so ago, but still should be useful. Since it's free, you're sure to get at least your money's worth!

1) The dollar is going a lot higher. Once the dollar broke 100, I started buying. Armstrong is targeting 160 out a couple years.

2) Interest rates are going up and government bonds are going to tank. Bonds peaked last July (2016), so this is a relatively new move. I haven't found a good entry point for this one yet. Darn! It's really tanking! This should be a sharp decisive downward move over at least the next 2 years.

3) The stock markets are going much higher from here. Could be a pull back, but dow/s&p/nasdaq could all double over the next 2-4 years. A pull back before the end of the year, which the Armstrong camp has been thinking may or may not come, does not look like it is coming. If this year ends with the DOW up, we should have another 3-4 up years. I'm long and looking for my buy opportunities.

4) Gold should still break below $1000. Armstrong is targeting $875/$908 as the bottom. Based on today's action, we may bottom at the end of this year. Or maybe into 2017 or 2018. His cycle analysis is a bit clouded by the fact that gold peaked in 2011, but the highest yearly close was (Dec 31) 2012. Armstrong has always asserted that the bull market in gold and silver is not over. Whenever the low occurs, it is going to be a great buying opportunity! I shorted a gold position when it broke below $1200. I'm hoping $1000 by year end. (Could be. You never know!) I have no idea when I'll go long. That is a play by ear thing. Also, there may be a double bottom kind of thing.

5) The Euro is tanking. Same with the Pound and the Yen. I'm short the Euro and the Pound. This trend should continue strongly over the next 2 years (at least).

These are all longer term (2-5 year) trends. There will be reaction moves in the opposite direction, but that is where things are going over the long term.

The basic cause of these actions are:

1) The sovereign debt crisis. Governments are going to default on their debts. This is becoming more and more obvious. This is starting to come to a head and should peak over the next 2-4 years.

2) Capital is moving into the US. This will be the last man standing. This is going to push the dollar and the US stock market way up. These things going up will force the FED to raise interest rates. This will kill the bond market.

3) Armstrong sees an international currency crisis of some kind in 2018. Yearly cycles are lining up in nearly all currencies for 2018. He thinks it might be a new international reserve currency solution.

This is all free information! Keep your own counsel and trade at your own risk!

Once again, a shout out to all my old buddies.

P.S. I still have about half of my physical! LOL!

Wed, Nov 23, 2016 - 1:07pm
tonym9
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took NUGT profits, rolled

took NUGT profits, rolled back into DUST for Fed Minutes

Titus: Good to see you back. Nice outline on MA. I only catch what he is saying here, so I appreciate the update. Interesting to read his (your) perspective.

I'm agnostic on gold...Don't care which way it moves as long as it moves. Must admit, I'm pretty upset at myself...holding a x3 fund is a dumb ass rookie move. That election setup was so sweet tho, ugh......wrong when I'm right, that's about par for a pm trader. Oh well, have made back 2% of the JNUG loss this morning trading 1/4 positions in DUST/NUGT.

Get back up on that horse and ride damn it...giddy up!

GLTA

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Wed, Nov 23, 2016 - 2:23pm
Sunnyboy
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Buying into weakness

Think I will do a little accumulation tonight :-) there is a big fib arch sitting right below the monthly candle bwdik? it won't be much but will continue to into January with a sell target date mid 2017...

Woof

Sat, Nov 26, 2016 - 12:18pm Titus Andronicus
silver66
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Titus--long time no see

Thank you for your post. I mostly lurk on this forum.

I found it very interesting as I follow AM set up for the big trade closely and he and MA are very similar (but not always in agreement)

I would like to ask you about your thoughts on the Dollar much higher. 160 is very high relative to values over the last few years and currently. Why do you think it is going to 160? Is it a short squeeze on the 9 trillion of foreign debt denominated in dollars. As foreign countries need more dollars to pay for the higher cost in their currency units they need to buy more FRN, thereby driving it higher.

Would this not be in conflict with DT wanting to bring jobs back to the the USA. Would a weak dollar not support that?

Thanks

Silver66

P.S, gold at 900 would be SWEET...back the truck up

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Sun, Nov 27, 2016 - 12:07am silver66
Titus Andronicus
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Dollar Move

Hi silver66,

As far as a dollar move to 160, the last time there was a dollar surge like this was in the early 80s where the dollar went from 100 to 165 in 3.5 years. I've heard Armstrong mention that he suspects the dollar will make new all time highs.

You're right that a rising dollar should be a big problem for the foreign debt. But Armstrong does not put much emphasis on fundamentals -- he follows the price and the cycles. Armstrong points out many cases where fundamentals can be undervalued or overvalued for decades. There is unmistakable capital migration into the US -- the "why" could be war or political or economic turmoil.

I can't really say much about how this would affect Trump's ideas on rebuilding US jobs base. That guy's got his work cut out for him in even the very best of scenarios. He has my best wishes!

As far as timing, it seems very possible that the dollar is breaking out right now. It's been treading water for almost 2 years.

Armstrong has said that the phase transition in the markets will be like a tsunami and the dollar will be the leading indicator. A surge in the dollar will push commodities down and push the stock market up to break out -- this might be happening right now. The dollar and stocks are going to explode up together. Armstrong followers have been waiting for this move for 2 years. Could it be happening now? I sure hope so! I have not heard him confirm this.

Gold is under pressure from the rising dollar and also rising interest rates. I'm guessing/hoping that gold will close this year under last years close of $1060. Armstrong is saying that the yearly bearish reversal is at $680, so that it is possible for gold to drop that low, though last I heard he was targeting $875. He is seeing the low in 2017 or possibly 2018. Armstrong does not foresee a yearly bearish reversal being elected in gold. It should be going up to perhaps as high as $5000 but it might take until 2024 to do this.

I'm not wishing anything good or bad for gold or silver. I still have physical which I'm not going to sell. But, like you, I'm hoping for some great buying opportunities.

Sun, Nov 27, 2016 - 2:03am Titus Andronicus
silverwood
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About the rising dollar and rising stock market

"A surge in the dollar will push commodities down and push the stock market up to break out"

Here are two long term charts of the S&P 500 and the US dollar index;

https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

https://www.goldchartsrus.com/chartstemp/charts.php?image=free/chartind1...

​​​​​​​The way I read your post it appears to me that you are saying a rising dollar will cause the stock market to rise. Looking at the DX chart we see that in 1981 till about 1985 we had a very strong rally in the $ then it almost completely retraced that move by 1988. Look at the S&P chart during the same time period we see it went from about 360 to 560 completely disregarding what the $ did during that time. I interpret that as being a non- correlation. Again in 2000 the $ had another strong rally that completely retraced by 2003. The S&P during that period was in a bear market falling from about 1996 in Jan. 2000 to about 1136 in Jan. 2003. So based on this historical evidence why do you think the stock market will rise because the $ will rise?

Sun, Nov 27, 2016 - 11:05pm silverwood
Titus Andronicus
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Dollar Move

silverwood,

Actually I'm not really trying to say anything myself. I'm trying to simplify and clarify what Martin Armstrong is saying.

Armstrong is NOT saying that there is a fixed correlation between the dollar, commodities and stocks.

He is saying that there is a sovereign debt crisis that is happening around the world, and that capital is moving very strongly into the US. This is going to push the dollar up and stock markets up -- many international stock markets, but especially the US.

I don't know exactly when the starting point is for the phase transition. Now would be great, but we have to wait and see.

Also, he's not saying that the dollar and stock market are going to go way up and stay up. When it gets crazy, you have about 12 months before it is time to get out. It should be very short and sweet. As far as I know, he is expecting a subsequent crash.

I'm not promoting an opinion, necessarily. I'm just trying to relay my understanding of what MA is saying.

The guy's track record speaks for itself -- I just do my best to understand him. That is not a trivial job.

Sun, Nov 27, 2016 - 11:16pm Titus Andronicus
silver66
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Dollar Move- Titus

It will be interesting if those on the "dance floor" will be able to leave before the last song is played

It seems many newsletter writers and prognosticators imply that they will know when leave and will tell us.

Time will tell

It is some thing I think about

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Tue, Nov 29, 2016 - 1:27pm
Scarecrow
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Dust off those pompoms bitchez...

Klendathu special teams have taken the field!

Wed, Nov 30, 2016 - 12:22pm
Scarecrow
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Well that sucked...

Really looked like we might have had something cooking there, meh!

Just got stopped out of my sunday night gold position...

(Yeah, should have waited.)

Playing this with long dated options instead.

(Rather regretting not doing that in the first place.)

So... Long JPY, Gold and Short WTI (Options Spreadbet!)

...and still have a cheeky short es.

(Dax kindly covered my loss earlier in the week.)

GLTA!!!

P.S. Not going to say how many stops have triggered since the Trumpening but it was a lot.

(Was loading up when the bottom fell out and then started knifecatching in several correlated markets... Bad idea.)

Wed, Nov 30, 2016 - 3:38pm
Scarecrow
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Short $WTI @~49.30 (Spreadbet!)

On my fourth pink gin... (Should say.)

@ZH

Fight Club - This Is Your Life

Na Zdorovie!

Wed, Nov 30, 2016 - 4:00pm
Scarecrow
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Fine, Fuck it!

Long EUR/USD, $Silver...

Franz Ferdinand - Take Me Out (Official Video)

(And off to Hatton Garden again in the morning.)

Thu, Dec 1, 2016 - 4:28am
Scarecrow
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Meh!

Closed all the spreads for a small loss...

(Stopped out of oil in the night.)

Off on holiday next week anyway.

Sun, Dec 4, 2016 - 8:12am
tonym9
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So if Italy votes no, Euro

So if Italy votes no, Euro should go down, USD should skyrocket again pushing USDJPY past 116 resistance, gold goes down more..yes?

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sun, Dec 4, 2016 - 5:37pm tonym9
pailin
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tonym9 wrote: ...pushing

tonym9 wrote:

...pushing USDJPY past 116 resistance, ...

Let's hope. I need this, have a big JPY invoice for some sweet art won yesterday ;)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sun, Dec 4, 2016 - 9:00pm
tonym9
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So....No in Italy. Muted

So....No in Italy. Muted reaction in forex so far. Critical test of recent lows coming tomorrow IMO. If it breaks I see potential to 1120 ish. Possible break to last year's low before FF/FOMC. It all depends on how the momentum develops within the next 12-18 hours....looks like a DUST trade.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Mon, Dec 5, 2016 - 2:34pm
pailin
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Probably everything is muted

Probably everything is muted pending Fed rate for December, after that reversion to macro issues in non-USD countries.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 6, 2016 - 2:34pm
silverwood
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Kicking the dog while it is down

Listen to the crap being put out there by main street media while gold is under pressure and in question of resuming it's baby bull...https://www.bnn.ca/video/brian-acker-discusses-yamana-gold~1010511