Thank you for your post. I mostly lurk on this forum.
I found it very interesting as I follow AM set up for the big trade closely and he and MA are very similar (but not always in agreement)
I would like to ask you about your thoughts on the Dollar much higher. 160 is very high relative to values over the last few years and currently. Why do you think it is going to 160? Is it a short squeeze on the 9 trillion of foreign debt denominated in dollars. As foreign countries need more dollars to pay for the higher cost in their currency units they need to buy more FRN, thereby driving it higher.
Would this not be in conflict with DT wanting to bring jobs back to the the USA. Would a weak dollar not support that?
P.S, gold at 900 would be SWEET...back the truck up
Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light
As far as a dollar move to 160, the last time there was a dollar surge like this was in the early 80s where the dollar went from 100 to 165 in 3.5 years. I've heard Armstrong mention that he suspects the dollar will make new all time highs.
You're right that a rising dollar should be a big problem for the foreign debt. But Armstrong does not put much emphasis on fundamentals -- he follows the price and the cycles. Armstrong points out many cases where fundamentals can be undervalued or overvalued for decades. There is unmistakable capital migration into the US -- the "why" could be war or political or economic turmoil.
I can't really say much about how this would affect Trump's ideas on rebuilding US jobs base. That guy's got his work cut out for him in even the very best of scenarios. He has my best wishes!
As far as timing, it seems very possible that the dollar is breaking out right now. It's been treading water for almost 2 years.
Armstrong has said that the phase transition in the markets will be like a tsunami and the dollar will be the leading indicator. A surge in the dollar will push commodities down and push the stock market up to break out -- this might be happening right now. The dollar and stocks are going to explode up together. Armstrong followers have been waiting for this move for 2 years. Could it be happening now? I sure hope so! I have not heard him confirm this.
Gold is under pressure from the rising dollar and also rising interest rates. I'm guessing/hoping that gold will close this year under last years close of $1060. Armstrong is saying that the yearly bearish reversal is at $680, so that it is possible for gold to drop that low, though last I heard he was targeting $875. He is seeing the low in 2017 or possibly 2018. Armstrong does not foresee a yearly bearish reversal being elected in gold. It should be going up to perhaps as high as $5000 but it might take until 2024 to do this.
I'm not wishing anything good or bad for gold or silver. I still have physical which I'm not going to sell. But, like you, I'm hoping for some great buying opportunities.
"A surge in the dollar will push commodities down and push the stock market up to break out"
Here are two long term charts of the S&P 500 and the US dollar index;
The way I read your post it appears to me that you are saying a rising dollar will cause the stock market to rise. Looking at the DX chart we see that in 1981 till about 1985 we had a very strong rally in the $ then it almost completely retraced that move by 1988. Look at the S&P chart during the same time period we see it went from about 360 to 560 completely disregarding what the $ did during that time. I interpret that as being a non- correlation. Again in 2000 the $ had another strong rally that completely retraced by 2003. The S&P during that period was in a bear market falling from about 1996 in Jan. 2000 to about 1136 in Jan. 2003. So based on this historical evidence why do you think the stock market will rise because the $ will rise?
Actually I'm not really trying to say anything myself. I'm trying to simplify and clarify what Martin Armstrong is saying.
Armstrong is NOT saying that there is a fixed correlation between the dollar, commodities and stocks.
He is saying that there is a sovereign debt crisis that is happening around the world, and that capital is moving very strongly into the US. This is going to push the dollar up and stock markets up -- many international stock markets, but especially the US.
I don't know exactly when the starting point is for the phase transition. Now would be great, but we have to wait and see.
Also, he's not saying that the dollar and stock market are going to go way up and stay up. When it gets crazy, you have about 12 months before it is time to get out. It should be very short and sweet. As far as I know, he is expecting a subsequent crash.
I'm not promoting an opinion, necessarily. I'm just trying to relay my understanding of what MA is saying.
The guy's track record speaks for itself -- I just do my best to understand him. That is not a trivial job.
It will be interesting if those on the "dance floor" will be able to leave before the last song is played
It seems many newsletter writers and prognosticators imply that they will know when leave and will tell us.
Time will tell
It is some thing I think about
Klendathu special teams have taken the field!
Really looked like we might have had something cooking there, meh!
Just got stopped out of my sunday night gold position...
(Yeah, should have waited.)
Playing this with long dated options instead.
(Rather regretting not doing that in the first place.)
So... Long JPY, Gold and Short WTI (Options Spreadbet!)
...and still have a cheeky short es.
(Dax kindly covered my loss earlier in the week.)
P.S. Not going to say how many stops have triggered since the Trumpening but it was a lot.
(Was loading up when the bottom fell out and then started knifecatching in several correlated markets... Bad idea.)
On my fourth pink gin... (Should say.)
Long EUR/USD, $Silver...
(And off to Hatton Garden again in the morning.)
Closed all the spreads for a small loss...
(Stopped out of oil in the night.)
Off on holiday next week anyway.
So if Italy votes no, Euro should go down, USD should skyrocket again pushing USDJPY past 116 resistance, gold goes down more..yes?
tonym9 wrote: ...pushing USDJPY past 116 resistance, ...
...pushing USDJPY past 116 resistance, ...
Let's hope. I need this, have a big JPY invoice for some sweet art won yesterday ;)
So....No in Italy. Muted reaction in forex so far. Critical test of recent lows coming tomorrow IMO. If it breaks I see potential to 1120 ish. Possible break to last year's low before FF/FOMC. It all depends on how the momentum develops within the next 12-18 hours....looks like a DUST trade.
Probably everything is muted pending Fed rate for December, after that reversion to macro issues in non-USD countries.
Listen to the crap being put out there by main street media while gold is under pressure and in question of resuming it's baby bull...https://www.bnn.ca/video/brian-acker-discusses-yamana-gold~1010511
Yesterday NUGT hovered around 8.80 land most of the day until the endish, along with USD at 100.25ish, USD/JPY was 113.50+ ish. Netdania charts XAU/USD was around 1175, XAG/USD had a pretty wide range in upward trend from 17.10s to 17.20lows. GDX was 21.60s most of the day until the endish where is settled around 21.40 land.
This morning I awake to find NUGT at 8.78 per while USD is at 99.88, USD/JPY is at 113.38, XAU/USD at 1176, XAG/USD at 17.11, GDX 21.60ish.
Could this be the setup for the USD and USD/JPY to come back down? Finally? IDK but I like the setup. NUGT position taken at 8.78 per.
IMO NUGT breaks into 9 handle today. We shall see.
well chit...sometimes you have to pay attention to the news and not put so much focus on the charts.
heading out for my rough country hunt tonight...hoping to put some deer in the freezer now that we actually have some winter temps in south texas. highs in the 40s and lows in the high 30s should get the deer moving. went 2 weekends ago and it was a waste of time, high 70s and no movement. it's a poor man's hunt, no feeders no motorized assistance, hike it in hike it out, track and scout, then camp on an active game trail and hope for the best.
i decided to post my comments here on armstrong because posting at the set up causes a reaction by the host. He should not quote about armstrong from 30 years ago and try to take a look and listen to what he is doing today. I can't understand everyone but i understand armstrong now that ive been following him.
I've been following armstrong for a while and i realize some on this board have a specific bias toward Armstrong --i guess we all have bias's. But at the end of the day his track record has been unsurpassed For those that haven't spent the $150 for ask -socreates then you may not understand where I' m coming from, but i've selected a few markets from Armstrongs service and it has been spot on. I'm starting to use it to trade a little. a dabble and a dibble. it's clear. and i don't have to try to read between the lines.
Armstrong gives the numbers for Gold and i just have to say i been fortunate to listen to him. I understand him. some may not and some may better understand others. I'm not making an advertisment for Armstrong just saying that it's worth to look under the hood and keep open to perspectives of others.
There has been so many wrong calls on the blog and this blog. Even on this blog we have seen calls for gold to go to $1500 at one point many months ago We have heard the bear is almost over then a turn that the bear is not over....lot's of different calls
Armstrong has continuous indicated that gold could below $1000 while others indicated that is unlikely --without giving information that i paid for but ask-socreates has call the monthly and quarterly turns and was spot on back in December the pivots would have made me good money if i too action.
Armstrong has called the stock market and dollar a long time ago.
I take a look at these boards once in a while and still can't decipher the codes. But that's me and if other can that is great. Lot's of smart people out in the world. some of those smart people have lost people a lot of money.
will gold go below $1000 into next year. a few more weeks. we have to see what the year end closing will look like.
If you don't read armstrong or have not read his reports etc it will be hard for you to probally comment. He's not perfect as well, but by listening to him you may have made good $ or save d yourself from losing $s.
Do any of you know how to contact Gold Dog?
A few years back he really blessed me, and I want to do the same to him.
If you know how to contact him, would you have him e-mail me here at TF Metals?
I will be very grateful, and I suspect he will be, too.
JazzTalker thanks for your 2 cents on Armstrong's paid service. Glad it's working out for you. Now that your doing actual trades let us know again in a few months if you still think he's got it far more right than most.