Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Jun 30, 2015 - 9:39pm SSK
pailin
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SSK wrote: Meanwhile, I'll be

SSK wrote:

Meanwhile, I'll be in the Basque country sipping Patxaran and blowing Yankee dollars on whole bonitos. Pailin would surely not approve!!

Hey not so fast with the generalizations! Pailin is close enough to the age to start burning up savings. Can't take it with you :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 1, 2015 - 11:04am
csquared13
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Good to see ya'll back. I've

Good to see ya'll back. I've been around on and off lurking. Haven't been looking at the day-to-day action in PM's...I see I haven't missed much there lol.

SSK, I have a soft spot in my heart for MUX since it made me 100% once on a long trade. That ol' dog HL ended up stealing the only miner that I've held long-term. (RVM)

P, I went to the movies last night. Got to see this gem in 35mm on screen. Next month they're showing The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Jul 1, 2015 - 8:09pm
Sunnyboy
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Moved my limit...

JAL

I sincerely hope you are in profit, this last week the EUR/USD trade must have given you a neck cramp, it certainly would have had that effect on me.

What is clear is that I went from day trader to year trader so our timelines are almost at extremes to each other. I have been holding USD for the last year or so and have USD contracts that are coughing up over the next few months, so with a 40+% profit in EU terms (on 100k+) I am selling into USD strength (for a change). The way I see it is that as as my costs are in EU as long as I buy "assets" (solar panels, water purifier, studio flat to rent at 8% +++) I am banking my profit as these are 40% cheaper in USD terms (have no intention of holding the EUR for long).

My point is that as bad as the EU situation is, the currency dropped 9 months in a row and is now levellingish, for many people who are in my situation we will buy the EUR hand over fist at or close to parity with our extra cashflow. (wish I had done the same a few years back when the GBP was almost at parity with the EU).

No idea what the future will bring but 40+kEUR over a year is a lot of extra purchasing power for me :-)

glta

Woof

Sun, Jul 5, 2015 - 1:05pm
Scarecrow
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Betfair odds on Greek referendum...

A friend rang me to say the odds had fallen to 1.18 to back on a No vote half an hour ago...

They're now below 1.10 (1/10) 1.06-1.09

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.119315327

EDIT:

And falling...

GLTA!!!

What is True North?

https://www.politicalcompass.org/

Mon, Jul 6, 2015 - 10:51am
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Long $Silver @15.702 (inc. spread)

We all know what I'm looking for here...

It's been a while since we saw a proper one!

What is True North?

https://www.politicalcompass.org/

Mon, Jul 6, 2015 - 3:07pm
eyeswideopen
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Copper And Derivatives

Wonder if anybody is interested in sharing an opinion regarding this downdraft, and also the story of derivatives that's floating around.

It's understood that fundamentals would support a lower price, but why do I believe there's an invisible hand guiding this market. The China stories (if true) may support the idea that margin calls for the big boys may be behind the move? Just dumb luck I guess that certain entities desire to accumulate more metal for their warehouses. Right place, right time. One could also argue that China Govt. being as forward thinking as they are would like to stockpile also. I'll be watching to see how low it may go before a bounce appears.

Derivatives exposure seems to be the story of the week. I'm speculating there's equal exposure on both sides, with friends sharing their cheat sheets. Makes for a nice, stable, predictable market. I'll be interested to see if AG follows copper. Still, however, sticking to the rangebound argument for the remainder of the year, but hoping (yes hoping) for the dive anticipated by some present here.

I'm still picking up some artful stuff. Premiums fluctuate, but I have a comfort zone. Never anticipated becoming a collector, but here I am.

Whatta game.

Wishing everyone well.

Oh, HAWKS WIN!

Tue, Jul 7, 2015 - 4:20am
pailin
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EUR

Getting EUR/USD back under 1.10 is the first step, then we can see what silver does. I should have already bought, but no. Looks like prices will run down later than usual this summer :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jul 7, 2015 - 9:16am
madcow
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15.22 .... keep on dropping

15.22 .... keep on dropping

Tue, Jul 7, 2015 - 11:15am
Scarecrow
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Stopped out of $Silver/$Gold...

So much for betting on TETOWAWKI...

Seems the EUR/USD:$Silver correlation is not going anywhere!

Was sort of viewing these as a hedges against some stuff I sold @,17.5...

(Well that's how I was justifying them to myself at least!)

Maybe I didn't need to hedge.

The other two (yeah... edits happened) positions are still open...

The options (small beer) have melted terribly but IG have only dropped the minimum guaranteed stop distance to 200pips (from 500 on sunday) so far.

These are two big hits but in silver the stop was tight(ish), in gold it wasn't and if it turns here...

Spare a thought for the coffee cups!

(I'm at home.)

EDIT:

Obviously I should have put a second gold position on instead of the silver one... (or done nothing!)

But I didn't.

@Sunnyboy

Stress, what stress?

What is True North?

https://www.politicalcompass.org/

Tue, Jul 7, 2015 - 1:55pm pailin
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silver

pailin wrote:

Getting EUR/USD back under 1.10 is the first step, then we can see what silver does. I should have already bought, but no. Looks like prices will run down later than usual this summer :)

People are definitely buying this washout.

https://www.goldmart.com/bullion/silver-bullion/silver-bars-1-oz-1-000-oz/100-oz-johnson-matthey-silver-bar-brand-new.html

Watched that go out of stock in the last ten minutes. Wasn't me though. I need a new low, so sub 14.65 (and realistically a test of low 14s -where 14 holds- with a buy when 14.65 is re-tested on the v-recovery). Silver has potential, gold I dunno? But 12, 10, 8...if Greece can't spike them off contra-USD, what will?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 8, 2015 - 1:46pm
Urban Roman
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Looks like

a force manure going down in the NYSE.

Wed, Jul 8, 2015 - 3:03pm
eyeswideopen
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Limit Down

Yep. Somebody big was about to get their face ripped off.

What was that about invisible hands?

Wed, Jul 8, 2015 - 6:40pm Urban Roman
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Urban Roman wrote: a force

Urban Roman wrote:

a force manure going down in the NYSE.

Equities (DOW) actually closed red. Let's see how many days before tapping 18k again?

If anybody is following Amstrong he really nailed broad US equities ytd, high in May, treading water, flush into October 1 (2015.75) and then rip (as govt paper peaks and then flails). We'll see on that last part, but I'm getting toward dropping some coin back into the market for that if we can get a full 10% decline off the top, so 16500ish?

No matter any of that, he said stay away from metals since 2011 tops (which he called). And he was right. Anybody wanna disagree with a straight face and a no-backpeddling reason? But seriously, can we just get to 12, 10, 8 already please? I do wants to buy :) :) :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Jul 9, 2015 - 8:07am
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Long EUR/USD 24 July 11000 Puts

This simply cannot continue...

Should have rolled the others last friday but I'm not used to being locked out of spot forex.

What is True North?

https://www.politicalcompass.org/

Thu, Jul 9, 2015 - 5:03pm pailin
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pailin wrote: Urban Roman

pailin wrote:
Urban Roman wrote:

a force manure going down in the NYSE.

We'll see on that last part, but I'm getting toward dropping some coin back into the market for that if we can get a full 10% decline off the top, so 16500ish?

Whaa?!?! Now I've seen it all haha.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Jul 10, 2015 - 9:26pm csquared13
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csquared13 wrote: pailin

csquared13 wrote:
pailin wrote:
Urban Roman wrote:

a force manure going down in the NYSE.

We'll see on that last part, but I'm getting toward dropping some coin back into the market for that if we can get a full 10% decline off the top, so 16500ish?

Whaa?!?! Now I've seen it all haha.

Yeah I know. Call it Curse of the Armstrong. That dude has been so right for so many years...it's the ultimate pain trade to take the other side. He's been calling all year for a fakeout equities dip this summer/fall (provided the May high remains intact)...that's the buy-in for the big money flow back out of short terms debt paper (which has flooded in from long term debt paper...which is why the 30 yr rate has been rising!) But it needs to be substantial to draw me in. At least 10%. It's all for retirement assets that are locked in the market anyway cuz I'm too young to take distributions :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Jul 13, 2015 - 6:04pm eyeswideopen
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Hands

This time, the invisible hands were rummaging around the breaker panel in the server room.

And Pailin was right, today we are back up sniffing around 18K... after the Greekend (lost count of how many Greekends that makes).

Mon, Jul 13, 2015 - 6:35pm Urban Roman
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Ashley Warren @ Armstrong

Ashley Warren @ Armstrong Blog wrote:

We actually need a daily closing above 18188 in the Dow to suggest a continued rally.

Let's see if she sustains. I think not, but the market will tell us regardless :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jul 14, 2015 - 3:03pm
Günther Specht von Frankenstein
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Armstrong was right about Greece and Gold

Hopfen und Malz ist verloren.
Tue, Jul 14, 2015 - 3:24pm Günther Specht von Frankenstein
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Gunther Specht von

Martin Armstrong wrote:
Gold must fall out of favor to make the decline real insofar as establishing the final low. This is how markets move and it takes place in everything, no matter what.

It's gonna take 600-800 gold for this to happen. Can't wait :)

I've been a contrarian for soooo long, and so durned good at it too...dunno how it happened but it's like I forgot all that when I started in with metals and bought into the hype as so many of us did. Silver is a (slightly) different story with potential supply chain issues and industry use/destruction. I'm cool with that, but still...bought into the hype. And gold. Man it really is just sitting stacked in so many CB vaults just waiting to be dusted off. Not rare. Not even a little bit.

Wish I'd gotten my head straight re: Armstrong early on. Gosh remember the ridiculous Santa vs. Martin wars of several years back? Ha ha. Well we know exactly who was right and who was wrong. And those "angels"...cripes. Never trade against the trend, and the trend broke in 2011/early 2012 (if you wan to take a liberal chart approach). But look around, the "promoters" still be promoting bull all day every day like it's still spring 2011. That's some real dishonest bs right there.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
randomness