Pailin's Trading Corner

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Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 3:28pm (Reply to #40066)
Cú Chulainn
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wake up before they close the coffin lid

are you selling physical and/or shares at these prices?

Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 4:09pm (Reply to #40067)
pailin
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Cú Chulainn wrote: are

Cú Chulainn wrote:

are you selling physical and/or shares at these prices?

No but I'm not overweight in either and don't need the cashflow. Those that are either should look to bounces to sell into. Or short paper against your physical (but the time to put that on was back in April/May, same as always). Probably a little late in the game for all of this...the best way to not have too much metal is to not buy every dip. And try buying other things every once in a while too; there's more than one contrarian idea out there ya know :)

Even this dip...I'm not buying. Other things are rather lucrative right now so I'm playing them to the hilt.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 4:26pm
Fighting Gael
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Funny

AM critique on Marty, for someone who obviously has the biggest flop thread in history and still mesmerizing the following... Lol

Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 8:12am
tonym9
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Damn.....   P was that a real

Damn..... P was that a real MA quote? I've never read him, but that quote has me interested. Calling it like he sees it, wow. I like.

Too bad I hadn't got off the todamoon train sooner...guys like him are needed in the metal space.

Im looking for a touch of 13 soon, then another of the never ending small pops complete with pompons. Hopefully after that cycle I get 12. BUT even if I see 12 it's only a 20% buy. My rational is that silver always overshoots the curve, so if 9 handle is 08/09 draw point as I think it will be, silver should dip under by 20% ish...that's a 7 handle. Lowering my buy point again...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 9:16am
pailin
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Tony, you know I like silver

Tony, you know I like silver too especially the cheap kind. We will get those spot prices and lower. I think scoring retail anywhere that low may be a problem though. Only if silver is truly hated, so sales volume evaporates even at super low prices, will spreads tighten. Otherwise the vendors will fleece on "premium" (of which there should be essentially none for generic bars/rounds!) Goldmart is starting to annoy me, widening premiums as they have on in stock metal. BS. Maybe for out of stock or even delayed stock, but not in stock. That's what you're paying the hedgers for!

Armstrong really wrote that, very recently too. His blog is fun, not only financial. Give it a try.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog

Glad you enjoyed Hawaii with the wife. Agree live life, especially if things are going to get worse...live it NOW and let the cards fall where they may (and do your prudent level best to have cushion for that). Martin is very negative on the political/social outlook as governments around the world go broke and politicians vote themselves more income (aka taxes for me and you) to stay in power. I am no longer interested in Texas. Houses/RE remain too expensive, are not falling as they should in the face of shale-fail. GA is very attractive, 3000 sqft (remember I very much need SPACE for what I do with art taking up so much), beautiful clean recent builds and .5 to full acre or more for $100k. C'mon! Why have you not sold Houston yet? I thought that was a definite for you this spring??

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 1:26pm
tonym9
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Hey P: im watching Houston

Hey P:

im watching Houston r/e closely. Families on my street are listing homes for 98-103 per sq ft and are selling in 3 days or less with bids above asking price....My nieghbor a week ago sold/accepted a bid contract in 48 hours over asking price. Against my better judgement, and in the face of $50 WTI, I'm holding for 1 more year. Like you I need space (car projects and parts) and the cost of storage has skyrocketed along with everything else in Houston. We are BOOMING here and it scares me to death but im sure i can stretch it another 10 months. Next year I will be less heavy on projects etc so it makes more sense then, plus I'm positioning my self for a cash only r/e purchase. I've sold 2 projects off and have 3-4 to go.

Plan is to pay cash for a SMALL CHEAP house and live in it in houston till i go to hawaii in 6-8 years. im going to buy a condo in 24 months in Honolulu and rent it out till we are ready, partially financed for tax reasons so that the rent isn't income. then get my youngest thru college. Once he grads sell everything and live mortgage free in Hawaii while my wife and I take a year off. Then work part time on island time till im dead, assuming all is still spinning....

singles are a given I think. But it's gonna take a while and premiums will have to correct like spot. My guess is I will be taking lots o metal to Hawaii

3000 sq ft in Houston proper is easily 300k right now...3 years ago that same house was 225-250. 10 years ago it was 175-200. Houston is finally seeing a Boom... But what goes up comes down hard. Silver and Houston r/e have much in common. GA gets hot AND freezes...just sayin. Open a art house in Lahaina Maui and make a killin lol !!!

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 3:06pm
SilverWealth
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metal drop

Heard about the orchestrated sell down in the Comex paper in the news which reminded me of the good ole days so I had to drop in.

I reiterate that I see Silver continuing to sell for whatever reason on the chart. I do believe the chart is largely painted by the forces in New York that hate the metals and are moving to a cashless society and to introduce this reality eventually. I really have no idea what will happen to gold and silver trading when that happens. Again a cursory and simplistic glance long term indicates Silver plummets down to a new ledge at 10 and then quite possibly goes to 7 - 8 area which means it could overshoot from there. I don't even remember what the round trip destination would be from whence silver first began its climb. Was it 4? Charts tend to fully round trip don't they?

Anyway if I was still a trader I wouldn't bother with a painted chart and one that is so closely studied by the Fed, they just have too much power short term and short term in my language can mean decades. The Borker that used to be on this site and said it was insane that anyone including myself would forecast Silver breaking 20 must have unloaded at least half his magazine into his own skull by duck taping his index finger to the trigger of his Magnum as a final protest. Timing these things can be maddening and I am quite glad as simple as my mind is that I moved on to plainer pastures 2 years ago. The game is just too complex now with too many criminal parties imo.

hope all of you are in fine form and if your trading your playing the bounces with alacrity. best, S.

Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 3:27pm
brokerk22
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Im still here

Silver deuchebag and doing just fine thank you. My stack still as shiny as it has ever been regardless of where the paper scam says it is valued at. You will always be a worthless trader deuchebag and you never will understand the importance of stacking in these times. I care not where they take paper silver. I will continue to buy to 0. If you want to continue to beat your chest just like all the other morons that called for lower prices. By all means do your worst. I dont give a fuck.

Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 3:36pm (Reply to #40074)
pailin
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brokerk22 wrote: I dont give

brokerk22 wrote:

I dont give a fuck.

Hahahahahahahahaha.

Oh but you do. We haven't seen you 'round these parts for weeks, months even?

But minutes after SW calls you out...a brokerk22 post :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 3:47pm
brokerk22
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I have made over 5

posts in the last 5 days. Obviously, you have no clue and pay no attention. Validating these paper prices by beating your chest and telling everyone you were right is a joke. It also shows how shallow your understanding of this all is. You sit behind your squiggly lines and charts and are always proven right somehow.

Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 5:49pm
Dorothy
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@Voldemort

Remember what Rico told you last time...

Ray Charles - Hit The Road Jack (remastered)
Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 6:38pm
Fighting Gael
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one

thing for sure is broker22 sure is alot broker...

Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 7:06pm (Reply to #40076)
pailin
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brokerk22 wrote: You sit

brokerk22 wrote:

You sit behind your squiggly lines and charts and are always proven right somehow.

Yeah I know, it's just crazy, huh?!

Gosh if I was ever wrong...(perish the thought)...the humility of it all...would just kill me :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 7:38pm
Byzantium
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@ Silver Wealth

Good to hear from you. I learned a lot from your posts from back then, and mitigated some of my losses to your credit. I have quoted you several times on TFMR.

Broker22, you are not reading this right. Stacking and trading are different animals. Stacking is insurance, trading is for profit. I took Silver Wealth's posts as being a trading caution, and benefited from it. There was no gloating in his posts, it was just sharing of trading experience. His very clear and well articulated warning before the April 2013 smash, was that if we broke 1500 support on gold, and 26 support on silver, then we were looking at a grinding bear market that would last for years, and drive us mad if we could not accept the power of that market. I was hoping for a V shape dip, but instead it played out like Silver Wealth said.

I remember too when silver hadn't yet broken support at 26, posting elsewhere on TFMR that I could feel 22 in my bones, and possibly even 18. A poster called Indosil was furious at my idiocy, and assured everybody that silver was NOT going to fall to 22. Well since then, there has been eating of hats, the fall of 20, of 18, of 15, and we still don't know where it will end.

Pailin's corner is a rather important corner on this site; and thanks to all involved.

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 9:17am
Dorothy
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Dog ate my homework...

Had a longer post but I pressed back by accident.

My two cents on Silver though...

Silver didn't dump (properly) unlike Gold IMHO because it's to well correlated with EURUSD, which was struggling to find support at the time, ironically TPTB may have been forced to bid up silver in order to save their precious Euro.

Gold obviously got sh-tcanned in the usual way to convince everyone that now was not the time to sell the f-ck out of the Euro but it's not correlated with EURUSD but with Silver...

So there's the GSR issue pailin mentioned.

This whole Euro situation is getting pretty ridiculous, only 600 pips down from the highs, seriously WTF?

Been short in one way or another for over a month now, and IG still won't offer a guaranteed stop of less than 150 pips!

@Broker

Sorry, mistook you for the other one...

Easily done.

Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 10:08am (Reply to #40081)
pailin
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JustAnotherLemming

JustAnotherLemming wrote:

Silver didn't dump (properly) unlike Gold IMHO because it's to well correlated with EURUSD, which was struggling to find support at the time, ironically TPTB may have been forced to bid up silver in order to save their precious Euro.

Gold obviously got sh-tcanned in the usual way to convince everyone that now was not the time to sell the f-ck out of the Euro but it's not correlated with EURUSD but with Silver...

So there's the GSR issue pailin mentioned.

Excellent point. Had my eye off EUR/USD pair for about a week. It's been going up the last few days? Haha. Another good one! But heading down again, with only silver to save it...I think not :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jul 22, 2015 - 7:10pm
Dorothy
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Short EUR/USD @1.09256 (inc. spread)

[REDACTED]

Rage Against The Machine - Killing in The Name Of [HD]

[REDACTED]

Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 5:44am
Sunnyboy
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Yemen invading Saudi

Anyone following this?, nothing in the lamestream media. The House of Saud is getting a bit of their own medicine. If they do one day fall it could be Gold back to 1900+ Oil to 100+ pretty sharpish. A long shot but worth a punt or two I would say.

https://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940431000715

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/06/21/416865/Saudi-Arabia-Jizan-Yemen-

https://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940329000233

Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 8:08am
Cú Chulainn
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Armstrong benchmarks?

new MA on gold--

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35296

does anyone have any idea what his first and second benchmarks are?

"If we hold 1084 for the weekly closing, then we can see a 2 week bounce and everyone will proclaim the low so hurry up and buy more. If we close below these numbers, then we can see a 2 week panic to the downside and a test of the 1980 high now. If that unfolds, then the latter target may be further down. So we play it by the numbers.

There is still a risk that the SECOND BENCHMARK will be the final low rather than the first. That would fit best on the yearly model and it appears that what comes after October 1st is going to be anything BUT normal. OPINION will not matter much for we are entering a period where only the computer will be able to cope with the future. Nobody alive has gone through what we are embarking upon – so OPINION won't mean much."

Thu, Jul 23, 2015 - 10:01am
soulscape
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I've been crawling around the

I've been crawling around the TF corridors lately after some hiatus, but I've always been mostly a lurker. No apologies.

Pailin, I've always appreciated your financial good sense and enjoy your musings. For the first time in a looong time I scrolled through some of the postings on main street. There indeed seems like participation and enthusiasm are experiencing quite a lull. It wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that prices are low and the majority of the pundits have been wrong?

I read through this article in it's entirety simply because of the response and the roar of the crowd. Seems like more hat tips than main street has seen in weeks combined.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7014/ounces-truth-shares-illusion

It seems to me that things haven't changed much. Cheerleading and finding all the reasons why holding gold and silver is the righteous path.

Of course, I was corralled by the herd mentality too. Mistakes happen. However, it would be a sin to use the same thinking and herd mentality to that got me into this situation in the first place.

So somebody correct me if I am wrong and set me straight. No matter how much of an illusion fiat money is, how corrupt the money brokers are, it's still money!! Bonds are still money. It doesn't matter how shiny your stack of silver is, it's sucking wind, until it doesn't. BTW, my pile of broken glass shines brighter than my silver.

Broker22 seems to echo the sentiment perfectly... I don't care the price, none of you understand what I do, and I'm just going to keep buying blindly because one day, I'm gonna be right and the rest of you are douche bags if you don't see it my way. I wonder if people talk like that at cocktail parties?

Yes, I am a bit tired of the cheerleading, and have no intention in supporting it. I posted in AM's forum the other day a sincere question regarding Armstrongs predicdtions of the future. It might have been interpreted as trollish yet there was no such intention.

Unlike Gaelic, I have great respect for AM and his charts from 7 months ago showing these level was impressive. I just don't get his subtlety and at times his more esoteric nature eludes me. That's why I like Armstrong. Very clear! I don't accept it as gospel, I am sure there is more to the picture like AM suggest but I can understand Armstrong.

I had put forth the question in AM's forum and like to give it a try since I came up with a ZERO with that crowd. I'm getting a bundle of cash. Yes, lucky me and all I have to do is decide what I'm going to do with it. I obviously think AM and Armstrong are right and gold and silver are going to have it's day. Next year, 10 years, hopefully before my funeral. However, some of Armstrongs speculative scenario's about the future of gold and silver, digital currency, capital restraints are a bit scary. Sounds like it's gonna be hard to sell a bunch of coins in a world where coin stores are all boarded up and government is going to do everything they can to make sure no underground economy pops up.

It doesn't sound like the dollar is going to evaporate even if it looses it's status or a digital system takes over. Simply the stealing of pensions, banks such as Fidelity, Vanguard and the like all present risks in Armstrongs future world.

So the question is what would you do if you came across wealth at this moment, at a change to do it all again starting at 2009. If I choose to buy physical, that means a huge tax hit taking it as cash. I don't know any gold funds other than CEF of Canada that I trust and I don't know how much I trust a fund that is managed by government other than the talking heads today say they have all the gold. Hard to trust somebody like Sprott who like everybody else has been so very wrong and his fund was endorsed by Sinclair. The latter individual scares the hell out of me.

Armstrong seems like small fractional coins for barter (not suggesting it will be because the dollar is gone. simply because an alternative economy rises because of a repressive government.)

Armstrong doesn't seem to give any discussion when to buy, how to buy, where to hold cash and many other things that would seem important if the repressive hand of government is going to be everywhere. I imagine there is not much discussion on this subject on TFmetals because most people are fully leveraged, and probably some living pay check to pay check now waiting for the price to return to decent levels.

It makes absolutely no sense to buy stacks and stacks of coins that are not easy liquidated. Seems to me some balance is required.

Any thoughts?

randomness