Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, May 13, 2015 - 9:22am
uki
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seasonals

Just a thought for what is worth. We had seasonal high in gold too early this year, with the peak dating to the end of January. Still too early to call, but how do you see the possibility of the seasonal low being already in (at the end of March), again ahead of schedule?

Wed, May 13, 2015 - 1:35pm uki
pailin
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uki wrote: ...but how do you

uki wrote:

...but how do you see the possibility of the seasonal low being already in (at the end of March), again ahead of schedule?

When I talk seasonals, it's really silver. Gold at GSR above 50 is useless to me (except to swap for silver :) So my comments here have to be tempered against that, and also that gold has a slightly different seasonal bias (as identified by Dmitri Speck) than silver.

According to this chart, high gold in January and then again in May is not uncommon, with bottoming only coinciding with silver mid/late June and then a run back up (kinda/sorta) into year end. Make of that what you will, I'm still only interested in silver :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, May 18, 2015 - 5:42am
pailin
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short

Silver is probably a short above 18 (mabye 18.30?) Will need to, even though my willpower to do so is low. Stop would be 18.75(ish). FWIW Armstrong is calling for solid gold this summer and weakness in the fall. We'll see...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, May 19, 2015 - 11:42am
Urban Roman
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Looks like it's not gonna hit

Looks like it's not gonna hit 18.50 at this point in time ..

Wed, May 20, 2015 - 2:52am
csquared13
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Next high = lower or higher?

Next high = lower or higher? Lower means the May seasonal high has been put in?

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, May 21, 2015 - 1:00pm
Urban Roman
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The retail market indicator

... not particularly bullish.

TPM and GoldMart are showing 'in stock' for quite a variety of silver items, including several types of 100Oz doorstops.

Wed, May 27, 2015 - 1:04pm
Scarecrow
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Long EUR/USD @1.0884 (inc. spread)

Like the chart...

Would look to silver but it can't be relied upon to go up as well as down.

Still cross about missing the drop - bank was playing silly buggers with some cheques!

GLTA!!!

EDIT:

Yeah that last trade...

Epic Fail!!! (Lolz)

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Wed, May 27, 2015 - 2:09pm
Scarecrow
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Long $Silver @16.71.2 (inc. spread)

Just on the off chance...

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Wed, May 27, 2015 - 9:04pm
pailin
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EUR JPY

As far as I'm concerned non-USD heading back in the right direction again. Still a buyer overseas but more cautious. Armstrong rest of year is equities sag into 2015.75 while dollar takes up the slack. That's a fakeout and then the reverse. Metals? Agree with him that money is going electronic (for full control and taxation) and metals will be banned underground only. Not gonna work out for stackers that intend to barter daily with them. At least if they expect to stay out of jail. So I'm reassessing against that and happy that I stack art too. Reality is so few 'get' that stuff, it's hard to apply wealth tax, NIRP, etc to. But then again, I'm sure Larry Summers will try anyway :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 8:29am
pailin
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JPY

Made new 12.5 yr low against USD this morning.

Back to December 2002 levels.

Exciting :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, May 29, 2015 - 9:02pm
eyeswideopen
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Trade settlement in metal

One might ask why banks and governments are accumulating a commodity with such haste. Settling trade accounts on a grand scale with gold or silver is not without its supporters. I'll watch with more than a passing interest when the moneychangers settle their accounts with metal while preventing the other seven billion (or 330 million Yankees) from doing the same.

A couple recent spikes have moved outside of the 8-lane-highway-of-a-range I anticipated, however there's no reason to believe that the rangebound activity won't continue for the remainder of the year. Was waiting for the 18.3 and Mr. P's anticipated entrance on the short end of the stick. Someone, however, made a little dough.

I continue to pick up artful shiny stuff here and there. It's just pretty, and I'm confident the kid will sell one of them for 180 million. I'm prepared to purchase liquor, smokes and chickens. Something about piss poor preparation comes to mind....

Wishing everyone well

Sun, May 31, 2015 - 5:22pm
Urban Roman
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Pt

Wow, looks like it could have a 10-handle tomorrow.

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 8:58am
Scarecrow
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H&S top and inverse H&S bottom completed in USDX and EUR/USD...

But will they hold?...

USDX 1M (EUR/USD overlay)

EUR/USD 1M ($Silver overlay)

Silver coming along for the ride so far...

GLTA!!!

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 10:52am
Scarecrow
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Closed the Long $Silver @17.144

Yeah... still don't trust it!

(128% Profit banked...)

EDIT:

Kicking myself now for not closing both...

EUR/USD just did what I was worried $Silver would do!

FURTHER EDIT:

Can't see anything else behind this except the ISM...

EUR/USD Shorts defending $1.10?

In any case the dollar bulls have got the ball!

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 11:54am
Scarecrow
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Oz
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USDX and EUR/USD Charts again...

Just for context...

USDX 1M (EUR/USD overlay)

EUR/USD 1M ($Silver overlay)

I'm cognisant of the fact that my posts have a habit of well... y'know!

EDIT:

Feeling generous...

$Silver 2H (EUR/USD overlay)

$Silver 4H (EUR/USD overlay)

Stay safe out there Bugs!

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 2:17pm pailin
Sunnyboy
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Banned metals

Mr. P

Hope you are well, been away a while setting up a small engineering and property development company. Only just survived bankruptcy twice but have a cushion for now :-)

Was just thinking about your comment that you would need a battleship to get my wife to give up her gold, she is Chinese of course but I think it would be the same for most Asian women. I would give the battleship about 1 minute before it surrenders or flees...my point is that Asia is a very good place to sink ones precious, I recommend Hong Kong, the population is not scared about taking on the government or anyone else en masse as they have done repeatedly and the food is outstanding.

Hope some of you are in the Chinese markets and minting it, but remember the Ides and Nones of summer..

Thinking of going physical for the summer, I have been doing very well getting paid in US and holding as far as possible while paying bills in Euros. Got an update on the seasonals? the other option I am looking at is buying EU vacation rental property in the EU Caribbean or in Athens :-P sooon but not yet.

Blessings to all and a special Hi to my beloved Padme if she is still lurking

Woof

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 6:49am
Scarecrow
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Closed EUR/USD Long @1.10241

Computer's misbehaving and two winners is good enough for me!

(93% Profit banked - had a larger stop than usual.)

Was hoping for a further pop, which may still happen, but after yesterday just happy to take what I'm given.

Toodles!

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 3:44pm
pailin
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Lemming glad you're making

Lemming glad you're making some good trades, be careful of positioning and volatility going into Friday jobs though :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 6:52am pailin
Scarecrow
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Thanks Pailin, means a lot...

I'm done now for the time being, still trying to master the psychology element of this game, which bearing in mind I'm a complete loon is quite the undertaking. (Also very conscious that after a few winners...)

Volatility and leverage are obviously a fairly explosive combination in terms of stress and one's ability to maintain perspective. I've tried to avoid overtrading by using less leverage (larger stops/more money) and not placing follow up trades, one trade at a time (sometimes two correlated), babysit (hang on like grim death) until I can get out, (preferably at one of my targets but 100+% profit's fine for the time being... baby steps!) Then stop, dead, gradually regain perspective (hopefully) and watch the daily on finviz; or break out netdania if it gets interesting.

I'm usually trying to swing trade on leverage at or near tops/bottoms/inflection points (ideally just after), so volatility isn't exactly uncommon but big stuff affects my thinking in a big way. (I don't trade a system, tried fire and forget trades with overhead limits but found it infuriating; obviously my targets were too high and stops way too close.)

Although I bailed early (just wanted out), I think 5 days at 72.5x leverage might be a new milestone for me.

(>300x leverage is only for special occasions now.)

We can't all be steely-nerved, stone cold gunslingers like SSK!

Anyway heading back to my day job soon (converting barges into houseboats in the lawless north) so no trading 'til I get back. (Or at least that's the plan...)

Happy trails!

Don't be a bagholder, be a bug! ; )

-The Lost Generation

Thu, Jun 4, 2015 - 4:20am
sixdollarsilver
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Hello

Interesting point in time for these metals imo.

I'm always tight, but betting down currently. Turns and ramifications are a given along the way. 1040 / 14.20 are very strong conservative targets for me. Ideally I'd like to start calling myself 12$ag, but hey, I'll settle for less :)

Pailin, me old stalwart, has always been looking for the 'inverse blow-off' and let's all hope it comes to pass - will make life mucho tranquilo...