Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, May 21, 2015 - 1:00pm
Urban Roman
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Jollyville
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The retail market indicator

... not particularly bullish.

TPM and GoldMart are showing 'in stock' for quite a variety of silver items, including several types of 100Oz doorstops.

Wed, May 27, 2015 - 1:04pm
Dorothy
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Long EUR/USD @1.0884 (inc. spread)

Like the chart...

Would look to silver but it can't be relied upon to go up as well as down.

Still cross about missing the drop - bank was playing silly buggers with some cheques!

GLTA!!!

EDIT:

Yeah that last trade...

Epic Fail!!! (Lolz)

Wed, May 27, 2015 - 2:09pm
Dorothy
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Long $Silver @16.71.2 (inc. spread)

Just on the off chance...

Wed, May 27, 2015 - 9:04pm
pailin
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EUR JPY

As far as I'm concerned non-USD heading back in the right direction again. Still a buyer overseas but more cautious. Armstrong rest of year is equities sag into 2015.75 while dollar takes up the slack. That's a fakeout and then the reverse. Metals? Agree with him that money is going electronic (for full control and taxation) and metals will be banned underground only. Not gonna work out for stackers that intend to barter daily with them. At least if they expect to stay out of jail. So I'm reassessing against that and happy that I stack art too. Reality is so few 'get' that stuff, it's hard to apply wealth tax, NIRP, etc to. But then again, I'm sure Larry Summers will try anyway :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, May 28, 2015 - 8:29am
pailin
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JPY

Made new 12.5 yr low against USD this morning.

Back to December 2002 levels.

Exciting :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, May 29, 2015 - 9:02pm
eyeswideopen
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Joined: Jun 29, 2011
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Trade settlement in metal

One might ask why banks and governments are accumulating a commodity with such haste. Settling trade accounts on a grand scale with gold or silver is not without its supporters. I'll watch with more than a passing interest when the moneychangers settle their accounts with metal while preventing the other seven billion (or 330 million Yankees) from doing the same.

A couple recent spikes have moved outside of the 8-lane-highway-of-a-range I anticipated, however there's no reason to believe that the rangebound activity won't continue for the remainder of the year. Was waiting for the 18.3 and Mr. P's anticipated entrance on the short end of the stick. Someone, however, made a little dough.

I continue to pick up artful shiny stuff here and there. It's just pretty, and I'm confident the kid will sell one of them for 180 million. I'm prepared to purchase liquor, smokes and chickens. Something about piss poor preparation comes to mind....

Wishing everyone well

Sun, May 31, 2015 - 5:22pm
Urban Roman
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Jollyville
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Pt

Wow, looks like it could have a 10-handle tomorrow.

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 8:58am
Dorothy
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H&S top and inverse H&S bottom completed in USDX and EUR/USD...

But will they hold?...

USDX 1M (EUR/USD overlay)

EUR/USD 1M ($Silver overlay)

Silver coming along for the ride so far...

GLTA!!!

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 10:52am
Dorothy
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Closed the Long $Silver @17.144

Yeah... still don't trust it!

(128% Profit banked...)

EDIT:

Kicking myself now for not closing both...

EUR/USD just did what I was worried $Silver would do!

FURTHER EDIT:

Can't see anything else behind this except the ISM...

EUR/USD Shorts defending $1.10?

In any case the dollar bulls have got the ball!

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 11:54am
Dorothy
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USDX and EUR/USD Charts again...

Just for context...

USDX 1M (EUR/USD overlay)

EUR/USD 1M ($Silver overlay)

I'm cognisant of the fact that my posts have a habit of well... y'know!

EDIT:

Feeling generous...

$Silver 2H (EUR/USD overlay)

$Silver 4H (EUR/USD overlay)

Stay safe out there Bugs!

Mon, Jun 1, 2015 - 2:17pm (Reply to #39990)
Sunnyboy
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Paradis
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Banned metals

Mr. P

Hope you are well, been away a while setting up a small engineering and property development company. Only just survived bankruptcy twice but have a cushion for now :-)

Was just thinking about your comment that you would need a battleship to get my wife to give up her gold, she is Chinese of course but I think it would be the same for most Asian women. I would give the battleship about 1 minute before it surrenders or flees...my point is that Asia is a very good place to sink ones precious, I recommend Hong Kong, the population is not scared about taking on the government or anyone else en masse as they have done repeatedly and the food is outstanding.

Hope some of you are in the Chinese markets and minting it, but remember the Ides and Nones of summer..

Thinking of going physical for the summer, I have been doing very well getting paid in US and holding as far as possible while paying bills in Euros. Got an update on the seasonals? the other option I am looking at is buying EU vacation rental property in the EU Caribbean or in Athens :-P sooon but not yet.

Blessings to all and a special Hi to my beloved Padme if she is still lurking

Woof

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 6:49am
Dorothy
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Closed EUR/USD Long @1.10241

Computer's misbehaving and two winners is good enough for me!

(93% Profit banked - had a larger stop than usual.)

Was hoping for a further pop, which may still happen, but after yesterday just happy to take what I'm given.

Toodles!

Tue, Jun 2, 2015 - 3:44pm
pailin
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Lemming glad you're making

Lemming glad you're making some good trades, be careful of positioning and volatility going into Friday jobs though :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 3, 2015 - 6:52am (Reply to #39999)
Dorothy
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Thanks Pailin, means a lot...

I'm done now for the time being, still trying to master the psychology element of this game, which bearing in mind I'm a complete loon is quite the undertaking. (Also very conscious that after a few winners...)

Volatility and leverage are obviously a fairly explosive combination in terms of stress and one's ability to maintain perspective. I've tried to avoid overtrading by using less leverage (larger stops/more money) and not placing follow up trades, one trade at a time (sometimes two correlated), babysit (hang on like grim death) until I can get out, (preferably at one of my targets but 100+% profit's fine for the time being... baby steps!) Then stop, dead, gradually regain perspective (hopefully) and watch the daily on finviz; or break out netdania if it gets interesting.

I'm usually trying to swing trade on leverage at or near tops/bottoms/inflection points (ideally just after), so volatility isn't exactly uncommon but big stuff affects my thinking in a big way. (I don't trade a system, tried fire and forget trades with overhead limits but found it infuriating; obviously my targets were too high and stops way too close.)

Although I bailed early (just wanted out), I think 5 days at 72.5x leverage might be a new milestone for me.

(>300x leverage is only for special occasions now.)

We can't all be steely-nerved, stone cold gunslingers like SSK!

Anyway heading back to my day job soon (converting barges into houseboats in the lawless north) so no trading 'til I get back. (Or at least that's the plan...)

Happy trails!

Thu, Jun 4, 2015 - 4:20am
sixdollarsilver
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Hello

Interesting point in time for these metals imo.

I'm always tight, but betting down currently. Turns and ramifications are a given along the way. 1040 / 14.20 are very strong conservative targets for me. Ideally I'd like to start calling myself 12$ag, but hey, I'll settle for less :)

Pailin, me old stalwart, has always been looking for the 'inverse blow-off' and let's all hope it comes to pass - will make life mucho tranquilo...

Thu, Jun 4, 2015 - 5:55am (Reply to #40001)
pailin
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sixdollarsilver

sixdollarsilver wrote:

...I'll settle for less :)

And I am certain you shall get it :)

Nice to see you back.

EUR at 1.13 (grrr) and me trying to close a five figure deal for some paintings out of Germany...vexing. To say the least. I want 1.08 of last week!

Reminder, I still think seasons matter and we get a low for the year sometime in the next 3-5 weeks (man, that came fast!) That's for silver, gold I don't give a fig about. Armstrong is saying the opposite, that summer produces an extreme in sentiment for gold (doesn't mention silver, but we all know how it works) and this summer will be 'hot'. Guess we'll find out fer sure, soon enough :):)

Armstrong has also been lately talking about bullion more (which he hasn't been, except to scoff at, for a long time), but only in Euro terms. They should be getting out of banks and into USD and metals as ECB gets more and more desperate with deeper ZIRP and other, err, unconventional ideas. We USD folks should just hang onto our hard dollars, not metals. For all, cash may soon be the enemy (of the state), maybe as soon as 2015.75 for Europe, and outlawed as currency goes fully electronic. Metals would be officially frowned upon too. Highly speculative stuff, but then that's where the paths lead...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Jun 5, 2015 - 8:50am (Reply to #39999)
pailin
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pailin wrote: Lemming glad

pailin wrote:

Lemming glad you're making some good trades, be careful of positioning and volatility going into Friday jobs though :)

Currencies flipping out. JPY back to June 2002 level. EUR dropped nicely :) :) :)

Let's see where we are around 4pm though, hopefully even stronger dollar then as I'd like to do some import transactions this weekend.

Oh and metals...well whatever the "excuse" we are heading into summer seasonal, so...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Jun 8, 2015 - 4:18pm
pailin
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$15 is back

Now if we can just get a re-test (and fail) of $15.50 floor, then we'll have something to talk about :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Jun 8, 2015 - 6:08pm
Dorothy
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Short EUR/GBP @0.73505 (inc. spread)

Just for sh-ts and giggles, joke stop...

You never know!

EDIT:

Added a modest limit... Not committed.

EUR/GBP 2H

(Someone asked me to look at it...)

Wed, Jun 10, 2015 - 8:11am
Dorothy
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Closed EUR/GBP Long @0.72881

124% Profit banked... though 124% of not much ain't much.

Happy to leave the rest for the Momos. (If there is any.)

My boss is suitably amused.