Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Dec 11, 2014 - 5:23pm
csquared13
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Thanks for your reply P. Will

Thanks for your reply P. Will keep everyone posted on what I do...clock's ticking for me to decide.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Dec 11, 2014 - 6:40pm
tonym9
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Aw man...wti 5handle is here.

Aw man...wti 5handle is here. I was sure hoping WTI would hold out until jan-feb 15 to print that.

The tremors are turning into rumbles in the oil patch...

selling the house looks like a for sure now...just hoping I can get to spring

feeling your pain Cs13. No uco for me but RE in Houston is my wworry

deflation cometh....

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

Thu, Dec 11, 2014 - 10:35pm tonym9
csquared13
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tonym9 wrote: Aw man...wti

tonym9 wrote:

Aw man...wti 5handle is here. I was sure hoping WTI would hold out until jan-feb 15 to print that.

The tremors are turning into rumbles in the oil patch...

selling the house looks like a for sure now...just hoping I can get to spring

feeling your pain Cs13. No uco for me but RE in Houston is my wworry

deflation cometh....

not really pain...uncertainty is probably more of an appropriate choice of words 'tis the life of a degenerate gambler.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Dec 12, 2014 - 5:54am
pailin
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WTI (again)

Working on putting up a sixth red monthly candle for December. Yes six. Rivalling all-star silver for being the most losingest month after month after month after month after month after month :)

2008 only got seven red WTI candles. Hmm. Could be a real fckaroo is headed straight for us...or bounce back over 66 by month end? (13% move up from here? Yeah I'm not seeing it either!)

:(

And stop looking at 2009 revisit on the chart. Hitting 58 overnight...we be back at the bottom of 2007 pre-spike prices. Call it eight lost years (if you like). A very interesting thing, as far as that goes...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Dec 12, 2014 - 8:35am
tonym9
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Black gold just keeps

Black gold just keeps falling... 58!!!!

This is setting up for a longterm play that could be a much faster bounce than pm. Lets say oil does hit 4 handle, or even (gasp) a 3 handle...it won't stay there. Oil has a history of production gluts then contraction then price increase then glut again.

Have no doubt, I will be buying physical pm once a bottom is found....but instead of shiney only I will be betting on black too.

It will take a few years for oil to come back, but it will easily double from here in the not too distant future...that trade is SO doable, but only after the shut in cycle is completed. Oil will get me back into paper trading...assuming this isn't 2008 on steroids...

i just need to get to the spring RE market mr oil market...please hold 5 handle.....pleeeeeeeze.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

Fri, Dec 12, 2014 - 9:11am tonym9
AUandAGbull
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Re: Black gold just keeps

Huge moves in a such a short period of time = leveraged players blowing up. When will the bodies start floating to the surface?

Fri, Dec 12, 2014 - 12:45pm
tonym9
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Oh chit...57 WTI. At this

Oh chit...57 WTI. At this pace a 4 handle will be printed before Cmas.

3 houses in my subdivision this week now have for sale signs....coincidental? In the RE slow season? My guess is they are Houston old timers who remember the 80s and are paying attention.

i fear spring may be too late.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

Sun, Dec 14, 2014 - 10:33pm pailin
docsilver
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Martin armstrong predictions

Marin armstrong predicts that metals will be bottoming q4 2015 or q1 2016, along with usd strength going into next year. He think the metals will start rising with the decline in his ECM post 2015.75, related to declining confidence. Do you think we should be holding dollars waiting for the bottom next year with new fiat? What are your thoughts on selling some metal/miners into strength with the intention of buying back lower at bottom? Do you think oil will be bottoming with the gold/silver next year? Any thoughts on trading the gold/silver ratio?

My brother and I have been following you for a while. Any insights are appreciated.

Sun, Dec 14, 2014 - 11:21pm docsilver
revitup
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If you hold physical it is

If you hold physical it is very hard to trade the GSR. Martin does not know what is going on or who is going to win.

Ashes to Ashes, Dust to Dust, Paper to Paper

Mon, Dec 15, 2014 - 5:13am docsilver
pailin
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docsilver wrote:Marin

docsilver wrote:

Marin armstrong predicts that metals will be bottoming q4 2015 or q1 2016, along with usd strength going into next year. He think the metals will start rising with the decline in his ECM post 2015.75, related to declining confidence. Do you think we should be holding dollars waiting for the bottom next year with new fiat? What are your thoughts on selling some metal/miners into strength with the intention of buying back lower at bottom? Do you think oil will be bottoming with the gold/silver next year? Any thoughts on trading the gold/silver ratio?

My brother and I have been following you for a while. Any insights are appreciated.

What you're asking, hard for me to answer as it's not how I'm presently positioned and I do not have a holistic picture of your holdings, risk tolerance etc. So I'll be broad.

Hold some physical always. How little, how much, up to the individual. Same with adding and substracting with chart ebb and flow. I've sold some physical, but not in any strategic sense where I could brag around here. I'm better at buying right. One can also hedge synthetically by being long in bullion and short on paper (forex, ETFs) and move the ratio long:short around as one see fit. Charts have a way of turning themselves upside down over time. Look how many times AAPL has crashed and burned, only to later rise phoenix like from the ashes? Metals will too. Whenever. And if we're all still here then, we can talk about signals to exit (for dollars, for whatever). There should be plenty.

Miners I've never had any use for. Anybody with miners would want to look elsewhere with advice, from those with a vested interest in trading them. Sorry.

Accumulating cash to buy seasonally low is prudent no matter. That's typically somewhere end of June. Sometimes earlier, sometimes later, but in that area. If you're looking to sell bullion or put on a paper short, that would be seasonally solid late February to April. I'll be talking about both of these points when it's time. And in the face of Martin, I'll be overextending long bullion this year, unless the price makes no sense (too high, unlikely!) Selling anything this low, hoping to rebuy lower...not what I'm doing, but it sure worked for tonym9, but he did it at silver 32. I'm only looking to increase my holdings by buying well, not game it near the bottom.

No thoughts on oil. Not my area of expertise.

GSR can be traded straight up (walk into a shop, trade with a friend, call an online dealer and do a simultaneous buy/sell and "pay" for the new by shipping in the old). Same can be done with a paper ratio in forex or a paper portfolio of GLD, SLV or the physical trusts, maintaining a ratio in shares (or dollars) and buying/selling to change the ratio.

Hope this helps!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Dec 15, 2014 - 5:23am revitup
pailin
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revitup wrote: If you hold

revitup wrote:

If you hold physical it is very hard to trade the GSR. Martin does not know what is going on or who is going to win.

Most physical owners can trade GSR but don't. To their detriment. They're also only ever long and tend to not sell at all. To their detriment. I described some ways to do it, and our old friend Eric Original did it best, selling clunky, dirty, physical silver the peak weekend before May 1, 2011 and bought gold bullion with proceeds. The only better move would have been cash and hold, but a great second place for sure!

Martin may not know what is going on or who will win (and he does tend to admit that from time to time), but his 'way' has been spot on for at least the last three years since metals peaked (which nobody else outside the mainstream was calling)...so I give him his due and consider ignoring him a mistake. Maybe Martin will end up another footnote though, a guy that got a few right and then fell flat as so many others have. The metals arena is littered with those losers. And I give credit that he's not always trying to sell something, like most others are. Excepting whatever 29.99 dvd he's pitching this holiday season, "less than 400 left". Can't kid a kidder. That one made me smile :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Dec 15, 2014 - 2:39pm
tonym9
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55 WTI Intraday O-O !!!! WTI

55 WTI Intraday O-O !!!! WTI is starting to have a silver feel to it...

to above: always have "some" on hand...be it cash, pm, food, ammo etc....I'd add whatever comfort items be it rum or buttwipes.

gsr play in physical gets 2 thumbs up, just depends if you are yellow or white or flatish...all up to each. My IMO is keep it cash flowed and play the game. Paper is ok too, but set an account up and chalk it up to tuition expenses. Once you've lost it then you can make it.

stay the eff away from miners...it ain't for the new and pms have a way to go yet...ok to wait for a solid bottom cuz if the mother of all rally's does happen there will b plenty of time

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

Mon, Dec 15, 2014 - 4:12pm
csquared13
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A while ago, I highlighted

A while ago, I highlighted the divergence between the Russell and the other indices.

Looks like the Russell has indeed led the others down.

My RWM is in the money. Question now is, what next? Are we about to see a Santa Clause rally as usual? And if Santa does come, does he take everything back to higher-highs? (including the Russell?)

Or does Santa take the indices to a lower high, which could signal a trend-change?

Hmmm....

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 7:52am
tonym9
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WTI 54 low.....4 trading days

WTI 54 low.....4 trading days left in the week. Mo says a probable 4 handle for Fridays close, forget about before Cmas. Chart is violently ill and looks like air to 50 flat.

Im upset at myself...I saw silver to 08 crash levels and gold getting to 3 digits but oil never hit my radar screen. Not for a moment. Not many did but that doesn't make me feel better. This move down is SO fast. I figured I'd have time to react and sell RE at the right season-nope. Maybe quick down is good for making the cycle complete faster....an announcement of production cuts (don't count on it till shale is broken) creates a v. A monster v. 40 low and I refund my trading account.

Oil down is a good short term buzz for mr consumer shopping for more crap but painful longterm with little leverage left against a super deflationary cycle. I hope I'm just being grumpy about WTI but this looks ugly. Dangerous game being played. I'm too unplugged to know if its Putin, shale, Isis, mil indust complex, Iran....who knows. But I can see my own little guy balance sheet at risk here.

i need a grumpy cat pic for this post....geez. Vent off.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.

Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 9:11am tonym9
pailin
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tonym9 wrote: Oil down is

tonym9 wrote:

Oil down is a good short term buzz for mr consumer shopping for more crap but painful longterm with little leverage left against a super deflationary cycle.

Maybe not. The people in my personal life that aren't like me (all of them :) are rampant credit abusers. Cut in gasoline just means they're putting a bit less on the cards lately, running the debt up a bit slower. But none of them, none, and I queried, feels it will last or that it's money in their pocket to spend another way. They're just having an easier time making the minimums. Yes. It's that sad.

Supposedly the personal profile of the entire 99.9 is rampant credit abuser. So we'll only know the truth next earnings season, but it may be that my peeps represent all peeps?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 9:18am
pailin
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forex

Hilarious. Read between the lines...this means that all traders are on one side (short RUB) and they can't lay off the action inside (forex.com) or outside (other forex markets). Nothing to do with evil speculator bs :)

“The USDRUB Pair Will Be Discontinued Due To Recent Instability Of The Russian Ruble”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 12/16/2014 07:56 -0500

Dear Russian Ruble traders, please find a different sandbox, because “evil speculators” will no longer be tolerated, first at Forex Capital Markets and soon, everywhere else.

  Image cannot be displayed

READ MORE

This is exactly what will happen to metals (eventually). Metals will take off parabolic and all bets will be on one side.

Only then will having physical really matter. Because all paper bourses will turn the products off, nowhere to lay the action off.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 9:38am
pailin
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January 2nd

I think ya'll know I don't keep up with daily moves garbage anymore...so sorry for stupid questions. But...

Are they doing monthly jobs on Jan. 2 (first Friday of the month)? If so, that's also the first trading day of the New Year, and liquidity probably won't come back in until the following week, or even a week later...so, nutty fireworks???

re: Liquidity. This week is it. Anybody that can get the next two weeks off is out. That means wild shenanigans, fun to watch, maybe not so much to trade. You've been warned (again :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 10:14am
pailin
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silver

So we recently put in a higher high (on the daily), now to see what sort of low is produced. Lower or higher? Not especially useful information (imo) but fun to watch. Trend remains BEAR BEAR BEAR all day long. Ignoring that is daytrading or foolish :)

Bullion buyers...seasonally (and really if you're still not doing it that way, why do I bother??) keep waiting for months yet to come :) :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 10:28am pailin
Philharmoniker
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JNUG....

is at the all time low...Anyone is thinking of taking a stab at going long? There is still room to go lower, of course...

Tue, Dec 16, 2014 - 11:46am
tonym9
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P it's not just your

P it's not just your peeps.

Example: Kroger gives fuel discounts, up to $1 a gallon off. If you buy gift cards it multiplies to x4 points...lowes, basspro, etc. anytime i have to make a purchase i go to kroger first. i also purchased many 5 gallon tanks. My wife and I tag team it with both cars and I use the tanks to get all 35 gallons at each fill up.

I explained to some friends how I've been averaging a free fill up in my f150 a month for 2 years...I get glassy eyed responses. People can't see how filling up gas cans and pouring them in the cars costs me less than 5 extra minutes....5.

we are so addicted to get junk now via credit for instant gratification. Interventions on a massive scale are required. But like any junkie, the howls of pain are tremendous.

where does it stop? Bankrupt personal balance sheets are the norm....sad.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.