Pailin's Trading Corner

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Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 6:39am eyeswideopen
pailin
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My opinion on numismatics is

My opinion on numismatics is that you're buying (speculating) on collectibles not metals. Nothing wrong with that but important to understand the differences, especially as they affect price (or trade value). I've never had a foot in that game, so I don't know the ins and outs, just that it's like art and other 'big' endeavors, to do well one needs some real passion and put a lot of time in...or get screwed by the sharks. Probably same goes for fakes. I only know the easy reading out there on the net that says everything (as in ALL of EVERYTHING) is being expertly faked to high heaven by the Chinese. I think that's probably true and no idea how pervasive it is in numi coins. I do know (word of mouth) that it's so bad in the vintage guitar market that several friends, lifelong and high-end collectors have completely dropped out, the field is totally polluted. An example if the '59 Les Paul Sunburst. That baby, real, is closing in on $1m. Chinese fakes that fool the experts (yeah, really) are in the hundreds. Really scary. Especially if you paid "just" $50k twenty years ago, and can't even get that now (though provenance goes a long way --- save your DATED receipts :) Also it may be the most dangerous thing about fakes isn't the actual fakes but the damage done to perception. If the perception is "it's all fakes" then commerce slows and getting out profitably or just near even can be a real problem. All not good. But you'd have to weigh your feelings (and deep research) on that and see where your risk tolerance is? Coin collecting is a really big hobby, so it has been able to absorb the bad news...so far. Maybe it's largely blown out of proportion too?

Long ramble..just my opinion...thanks for asking!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 9:09am
erewenguy
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Numismatics

Speaking as a 35+ year long coin collector -

Unless you have deep pockets and collect only the rarest of the rare in the highest conditions possible, don't expect to profit from your collection.

Buy/sell spreads are outrageous in the collectible arena, but 3rd party grading and online auctions have tightened that spread a bit. It's helpful to sell something once in a while to test what the market really is for a given item outside of the hype.

Fast gains require hot money looking for a home. Except in very few situations, hot money numismatics is an oxymoron. If you are buying something that is "hot", you will lose money on resale unless you buy with an immediate flip in mind.

To profit from slow money you have to acquire something that is underappreciated, and wait for the market to turn to you. The fallacy for most people who think they can consistently make money in numismatics is that they think they will be able to predict what will be sought after in the future. A tricky proposition. On a percentage basis, I have gotten the best gains from junk silver - of course, that was acquired when it really WAS junk and could be had for face value.

Collectors are notorious for vaulting their collections for their lifetimes, so numismatics is a great store for building generational wealth, but it's unlikely you'll see much appreciation in your lifetime. Your heirs will benefit from your long term vision. If you want faster, more tangible profits from your venture, you are more likely to make money (or limit your losses) by buying with the intent of reselling quickly, and reinvesting the proceeds. That gives you a quick and undisputable barometer on market conditions.

I'm not trying to discourage your numismatic venture. It's a fascinating and enjoyable hobby. But from an investment standpoint, I just wanted to contribute another perspective to help you know what you are getting into.

Mon, Nov 24, 2014 - 11:07am
AUandAGbull
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TY Treasury futures

Record Leveraged Money short position (disaggregated COT) in TY futures with record commercial long position (Legacy COT)

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 12:15pm
Lord Henry
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New study confirms universe is a hologram

Although Pailin possibly has an edge over most of us when it

comes to understanding the markets, he still hasnt really got

his head around things when it comes to explaining Time,

Space, Life , or physical existence. I tend to kinda see this as

my speciality at the corner. Although I'm fairly persuaded by

studies of unexplained weight loss, change of radio wave behaviour

and bodily auras at or around the time of one's death, this new

study showing the entire universe (not just the markets) to be a

hologram is quite an interesting read (imo).New Study Confirms

Universe Is A Hologram | Spirit Science

Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 5:45pm
pailin
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gold is freaking out on Netdania :)

Up over $140 on nil voume but nothing else moving, glitch?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 6:36pm pailin
uki
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Re: gold is freaking out on Netdania :)

It is just a sentiment check ;)

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 6:42pm pailin
Urban Roman
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Re: gold is freaking out on Netdania

Must be glitch. I don't see it anywhere else.

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 7:05pm
Tesla
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Netdania Fixed except for GSR

GSR still shows spike to almost 88:1

=]

(edit) I Knew I Should Of Bought Gold Instead - DOH!

Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - 7:46pm Urban Roman
csquared13
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Urban Roman wrote: Must be

Urban Roman wrote:

Must be glitch. I don't see it anywhere else.

Yeah probably a glitch. I stopped using Netdania a long time ago...only randomly if I don't have access to my Forex account.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - 9:52am
erewenguy
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SLV positioned to jump the

SLV positioned to jump the gap for an island reversal, or takedown, just in time for the SGI vote.

Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - 9:55am
Tesla
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Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

Be safe if your traveling!!!

Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - 6:26pm
Lord Henry
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GOLD : 1200

U2 : VERTIGO

U2 - Vertigo
Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - 8:28pm
Urban Roman
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Hmmm ...

Looks like it's gonna leave 15-land and head for 14.

Oil just cratered, silver to follow?

Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 12:07pm
Tesla
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GSR Making new highs

pushing up through 75+ to 76:1

Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 12:59pm
pailin
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might be a trade in here

Should still be a bounce into year end, a spec long with a stop at previous low could be a short term play. Last week of December can go either way, so may want to flatten out earlier or set trailing stop. Not for me, just putting it out there :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - 2:57pm
tonym9
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added a little here

The drop spurred me to go on the hunt. Gotta love ATB sales. 2013 slabbed PCGS MS69 DMPL - FS for $863 per set!!!! You can't piece them together for that price. Bought all the guy had at the honey hole. Basically bought 4 to get the 5th coin of the year free.

Some may look at them at $40+ per ounce as NUTS, but the ATB's have held the values that most haven't. Usually slabbed 69s full set (for all 5 in a year) are around $1000 depending if there is a stand out or not (like 2012) where prices get pushed up.

Finding maples for under $18 any quantity at Goldmart. They are still pricey at other venders, some of which magically went out of stock within a few hours this morning...

I'm not a big buyer at this level either though, only ATB's when I can find them on sale. I'm still waiting 12s...

Oil at 6 handle makes me nervous in a big way for RE in Houston. I will take a hit in equity before Spring which is the earliest I can sell the house. $65.69 per barrel low today. OUCH. There will be slow downs in the oil patch...the question is how bad will it get and will it hit RE the way I fear it will. UCO $16.29 last trade in after hours O-O!!!

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 11:49am
SSK
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Trader Dan

Trader Dan just moved to a subscription form. $39.99 a month.

Sigh.

He was the last sane voice in the commodity markets.

Gonna be a shit storm take down all week long. Got DUST?

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 11:49am
SSK
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Trader Dan

Trader Dan just moved to a subscription form. $39.99 a month.

Sigh.

He was the last sane voice in the commodity markets.

Gonna be a shit storm take down all week long. Got DUST?

Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 1:52pm
Lord Henry
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I'm still sane SSK.

The fact you posted twice makes me suspect you may be a little

undecided. Things are so negative for gold - it can only go up.

This is what the great controversialists teach us. Go gold go.

Peter Gabriel & Kate Bush -Don't Give Up
Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - 3:24pm SSK
pailin
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SSK wrote: Trader Dan just

SSK wrote:

Trader Dan just moved to a subscription form. $39.99 a month.

Really? Quite a loss. I have no reason to doubt his trading acumen (truly), but if it's soooo good, why the need to fleece that way? It's not like he's giving trading advice before it happens, yeah? More like post-game analysis. Which is good, but hardly worth paying for...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey

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