Pailin's Trading Corner

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Tue, Dec 2, 2014 - 7:55am
pailin
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JPY 119 (again)

Man that's some crazy JPY action. Think 119 is here to stay.

And now I'm off to see what's available in yen :) :) :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Dec 3, 2014 - 11:21am
Grublux
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Not sure where to put this

But I wanted to put it out there. Any thoughts?

Thu, Dec 4, 2014 - 6:20am
Urban Roman
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Retail report

Texas Precious Metals is restocking their shelves now. They've been out of Austrian Philharmonics for a long time now, but most of the other stuff is back.

They plan to sell the silver for $17.75 to $18+ per ounce.

Thu, Dec 4, 2014 - 4:20pm
Lord Henry
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1200 Resistance

Has now become 1200 support. Hahahaha. Anyone who

believes in support, resistance, round number theory ,

charts, fundos, facts, figures , gurus or experts hasnt been

paying proper attention to 'the management' . I feel sightly

optimistic, but not as optimistic as I'd feel if I had Madonna

dancing around in the back of my car. Question. Why did she

wait such a long long time before she became this pretty ?

Video unavailable
Wake me up at HUI 200. No, on 2nd thoughts, please dont bother.
Fri, Dec 5, 2014 - 6:57am (Reply to #39607)
pailin
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pailin wrote: Man that's some

pailin wrote:

Man that's some crazy JPY action. Think 119 is here to stay.

And now I'm off to see what's available in yen :) :) :)

JPY 120 has come and gone, on the way to 121. Get used to dollar strength, yen is spiraling. Hard.

We should all remember that Armstrong called this. Not one metals site called for strong dollar.

Only strong for so long though, so "sell" high (dollars) and "buy" low (other goods set to rise in reversal).

For me that's art, and metals (sparingly and strategically).

Next resistance 125, then 135. Marjor monthly targets those are.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Sat, Dec 6, 2014 - 7:43am
tonym9
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emial from ebay/apmex via

emial from ebay/apmex via ebay has a sale 1oz pamp gold bar at spot...don't know how long its available. 1192.60 with free shipping.

even though i figure gold has a way to go before bottom, i like a 75-100 discount at this level. would rather focus on silver at this gsr but it is what it is.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sat, Dec 6, 2014 - 7:58am
tonym9
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no way i could have been

no way i could have been convinced the usd would be this strong back when it was in the 70s...i just knew it was going to fall through the floor and collapse and silver/gold was goin to da moon baby. my how the perspective has changed. better to have learned to not be swayed by shills with pom poms and inventory to sell than to not learn at all. i still say it is a case of the best house in a bad hood, but for now the run up is impressive and i'd say it has some leg to it yet. Armstrong gets props for that one.

agree with P on finding somewhere to leverage with the strong usd...even if it is a vacation to somewhere needing a passport. memories count. live life before you cant.

oil didn't crash to a 5 handle which for me is a good thing. still watching closely. have a guy coming in a few weeks to look at a 70 Torino Convertible with parts from 2 cut ups to go with it. told him to bring a big truck and trailer for all of it. people are still buying stuff... This will liquidate all of my 70-71 stuff in one sale and free up 2.5 garage bays making the potential spring RE sale easier. hate to sell it but i have 2 projects in front of it and limited time, if i do sell i'm looking at storage fees and no way do i pay that overhead so its better to ring the register on that one.

the idea of moving is daunting to me but must be done pending oil falling more which i feel it will. RE is local and Houston is still very much oil centric. allowing myself to take a big percentage hit on RE due to being lazy is not an option...sigh...

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Sun, Dec 7, 2014 - 4:14pm
tonym9
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woke up to a 10% off up to

woke up to a 10% off up to $100 from ebay email with a code I could only use once...i love discounts.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Tue, Dec 9, 2014 - 9:48am
pailin
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this is your rally

This is your rally into year end. A great quick trade that I expected from around Thanksgiving but got fooled by that raid down to 14.40. Old news now. But be careful, especially on leverage. The last week of the year can go either way, but the first three weeks of January can be rather brutal if you're positioned long.

Me? I'm out until we see some peaking action late February to April...then I'll short again and get ready for the next bullion buying spree.Actually I'm already putting cash aside for that :) Otherwise it's overeating and Netflix to stay warm :):)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 9, 2014 - 10:41am
pailin
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17.81

That's the target. Cross that and it's an easy run to 18.20 and glory (for the longs). Bad time to be short :)

Speaking of...this is tax loss season and book-squaring for year end. So to bookend onto my last post this week and maybe next should be liquid, but be careful the last two weeks of month...the liquidity disappears and the charts can be a bit violent, all classes. Same as every year since they killed Christ.

Also whatever YE looks like, expect the opposite early January, as portfolio painting is so 2014 and the very serious business of "buying" for 2015 begins, which may or may not mean selling the sht out of metals. My short this spring, may be my last and my long (bullion) may be my biggest buy ever...if Armstrong and 2015.75 are how it plays. I don't stoop for nickels in front of steamrollers...and I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Dec 9, 2014 - 8:39pm (Reply to #39616)
HappyNow
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pailin wrote: That's the

pailin wrote:

That's the target. Cross that and it's an easy run to 18.20 and glory (for the longs). Bad time to be short :)

Just in case that doesn't happen with this rally I'm out of everything bought under $16.00

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Dec 10, 2014 - 11:34am
csquared13
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Have to admit that WTI action

Have to admit that WTI action has me concerned. I don't know if this is some sort of indication that we're about to see a 2008 (or are seeing) style crash...or if this really is just supply/demand dynamics working, and the upside will come after cold weather comes and production slows.

I still intend to buy my second tranche of UCO..but not yet. My second tranche always gets bought in mid-Dec so I have to wait another week or two. I'm prob out of my mind..don't try this at home lol.

Am also considering doing some serious trimming of my equities portfolio, but trying my best to sit on my hands and not panic.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Wed, Dec 10, 2014 - 12:12pm (Reply to #39618)
pailin
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csquared13 wrote:...and the

csquared13 wrote:

...and the upside will come after cold weather comes and production slows.

In the Northeast, cold weather is here :)

FWIW, we don't know if 2015.75 is real or not. Assuming it is, it's a peak in confidence in government management of economics (I paraphrase). But is there a lead in (2008 style crash, and fail of government to "solve" this time) or do the "effects" (we care about) only follow? And again, what speed, how fast or slow? That's the tough one, trying to time ahead of that especially the otherwise dull summer. Right?

I don't know. I never do. (At least) knowing this about myself, I always go in deeper than 'normal' people but often too shallow to really 'score'. This is for anything. It's why I never got buried in metals as many others around here did, in the 40s, 30s, even 20s (silver prices that is). Heck...I'm still not. But I will buy deeper than usual next trough (be it early, normal or late - like this year was) ahead of 2015.75. Because it's "there". And if Armstrong has it right, I will probably not have bought enough, or have too much art, too much cash, etc. But if he's wrong (totally or only partially) or it's a sloooooow burn into 2020 (let's say), then I'll be glad, as I have been since May 1, 2011, that I'm not (ever) an all-in sort.

Lotta bs above, boiling down to...do the best you can with what "information" (and no idea of the quality of same) you have. Ugh.

:)

I'm such a help, yeah? Oil...trading it long right now, is more risk than I'd take. But that's always been true of oil. I've never traded it or other commodities, metals aside. Maybe just keep your loss parameters always in mind so you don't get totally destroyed if things do go FUBAR ala 2008 (or worse)? Or let the greed go (bye-bye, drift away....) and give the trade a pass this year altogether?

EDIT: And then I check the chart, and Brent is down another 4.5% today and WTI barely holding the 60 handle...no wonder you're feelin' squirrely. That's a bit scary. Especially after so much has already come off. Not a whiff of rally anywhere. Cripes.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Dec 10, 2014 - 2:01pm
pailin
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GSR

Hey csquared, here's a GSR tale for you :)

https://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/12/i-traded-some-gold-for-silver.html

In the FOREX world one can rebalance a long/short portfolio the same way!

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Dec 11, 2014 - 5:06pm
pailin
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WTI

$59.25.

Wow.

Soon enough they'll be giving you a free gallon of gas when you wheel up to buy an ASE :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Dec 11, 2014 - 5:23pm
csquared13
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Thanks for your reply P. Will

Thanks for your reply P. Will keep everyone posted on what I do...clock's ticking for me to decide.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Thu, Dec 11, 2014 - 6:40pm
tonym9
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Aw man...wti 5handle is here.

Aw man...wti 5handle is here. I was sure hoping WTI would hold out until jan-feb 15 to print that.

The tremors are turning into rumbles in the oil patch...

selling the house looks like a for sure now...just hoping I can get to spring

feeling your pain Cs13. No uco for me but RE in Houston is my wworry

deflation cometh....

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.
Thu, Dec 11, 2014 - 10:35pm (Reply to #39623)
csquared13
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tonym9 wrote: Aw man...wti

tonym9 wrote:

Aw man...wti 5handle is here. I was sure hoping WTI would hold out until jan-feb 15 to print that.

The tremors are turning into rumbles in the oil patch...

selling the house looks like a for sure now...just hoping I can get to spring

feeling your pain Cs13. No uco for me but RE in Houston is my wworry

deflation cometh....

not really pain...uncertainty is probably more of an appropriate choice of words 'tis the life of a degenerate gambler.

“Everybody gets what they want out of the market.” -Ed Seykota
Fri, Dec 12, 2014 - 5:54am
pailin
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WTI (again)

Working on putting up a sixth red monthly candle for December. Yes six. Rivalling all-star silver for being the most losingest month after month after month after month after month after month :)

2008 only got seven red WTI candles. Hmm. Could be a real fckaroo is headed straight for us...or bounce back over 66 by month end? (13% move up from here? Yeah I'm not seeing it either!)

:(

And stop looking at 2009 revisit on the chart. Hitting 58 overnight...we be back at the bottom of 2007 pre-spike prices. Call it eight lost years (if you like). A very interesting thing, as far as that goes...

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Fri, Dec 12, 2014 - 8:35am
tonym9
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Black gold just keeps

Black gold just keeps falling... 58!!!!

This is setting up for a longterm play that could be a much faster bounce than pm. Lets say oil does hit 4 handle, or even (gasp) a 3 handle...it won't stay there. Oil has a history of production gluts then contraction then price increase then glut again.

Have no doubt, I will be buying physical pm once a bottom is found....but instead of shiney only I will be betting on black too.

It will take a few years for oil to come back, but it will easily double from here in the not too distant future...that trade is SO doable, but only after the shut in cycle is completed. Oil will get me back into paper trading...assuming this isn't 2008 on steroids...

i just need to get to the spring RE market mr oil market...please hold 5 handle.....pleeeeeeeze.

"No! Try not. Do, or do not. There is no try." -Yoda Levitation will levitate until levitation doesn't levitate. Rates be the key matey.