Not a glitch.
Now I'm glad I snagged some ZSL on Friday. Figured the Swiss vote would go the way it did, and that would have a noticeable effect. Sell on Monday, or wait 'til Tuesday?
In other news, retail shortages once again appearing in TPM's product line. FWIW.
I think it's safe to assume ASE will disappear tomorrow or Tues at the latest through year end. Why punch out more 2014 at this point, right? Man year end rally for metals is looking really off right now though...crude is totally collapsing.
Looks like it's approaching the low from 2010.
Not ideal, but the break of 15 I have to take seriously.
And yes I know I could wake up very happy or smoked again :)
I see a gap from 15.25 to about 14.95 on a 1 minute chart.
Can that gap exist indefinitely, or does it even matter?
Gap on the gold chart looks magnetic... would be happy to short from there.
Just my luck it'll get filled via $950Au :P
14 handle winds the clock back a bit no doubt. Getting closer to 08 crash levels. From here I'm on alert for a buy. Govt issue at 15 all in trips my trigger. Getting closer. Goldmart at 17.26 for Maples.
I don't expect to buy until first quarter '15 though. Last thing I want to see is a waterfall event. I want it to be a slow grind so premiums don't skyrocket.
P, that short looks good assuming the short term relief rally doesn't get you. I still say seasonals are dead for now. IMO we have to reset to crash levels before normal seasonal chart action returns.
The one thought that keeps nagging at me is silver's over reactions...past 08 crash lows takes us where ???
At this point though my eyes are on OIL...
Sadly, I took no short going into the weekend. I do own some long SLW (which has been holding up rather well), but that will be stomped.
I hear you Pailin about Trader Dan. He was never a great prognosticator, but that's what made him worthwhile. He could confirm a market's trend, set trading parameters, and I LOVED how he tweaked Sinclair and Turd's noses. He broke from those guys about two years ago when he saw the gold market turn south while they kept calling bottoms and deviating toward conspiracies in lieu of the reality right in front of their noses.
Bottom for silver? $6?
Bottom for Gold? $600
I'll never get it. There's so many ways to make money out there. Fleecing the flock? For speculative opinion stuff?? That's just lazy and weak. And usually signals the end as the smart leave and the weak go broke (being fleeced). Dan was nice reading, but whatever. Be surprised if he's still doing the same a year from now. Then again, others have (hint, hint) and seem to be thriving?? Maybe I'm the big idiot on this...
The only piece missing from the puzzle is Miles Franklin telling us how this break under $15 brings us closer to "victory". Surely we'll get that tomorrow :)
Tradingview shows a brief little dip in XAGUSD at 23:42 to 13.997.
pailin wrote: Not ideal, but the break of 15 I have to take seriously. Stop 15.30. And yes I know I could wake up very happy or smoked again :)
On huge dollar bounce. Still looking down at possible 13.** I think now. 14.1* minimum. Gotta buy big if that happens. (edit) almost 2 dollar bounce!
Yep it happens. Looks like that was a very brief opportunity, probably ZH correctly reporting that fund liquidating it's commodity positions. That may be it for the year, unless the same thing happens again (large pools go poof!) For 2015, who knows but to most of the world, nothing changed since last week :)
Some of the ZH comments were good..
"It's a hedge fund! Didn't they hedge?"
Even though I got smoked, stop paid off, too busy today to watch tick by tick, it got me out early and not too painfully. Live to play another day. December 1, guess funds are BUYING for December? Crazy markets. As most of you know, aside from long bullion moves and short paper metals moves...I'm not a player anymore. Art...less liquid, all gains :)
another example of why P's forex platform notes make cents...much to be made with flexibility, much to be lost being trapped.
the whipsaw is impressive.
14.60ish now has a recent marker on the charts...and connects all the way across the bottom of a longterm chart
Action was bull goose loony tunes today. I did not see that bounce coming. Not at all. Makes you wonder who was buying. Seriously? What positive did they see in investor sentiment? I see only a wrecking ball through the commodities.
Sometimes it's best to keep your money in your wallet. No way I would have had the foresight to catch either swing. And when I don't get a market, I stay the hell away.
But the 'smart' money is now on the long side of this market
(pls bear in mind this is the village idiot speaking). It's a bit tricky
to determine the parameters of managed market, but in my mind
the downside for gold couldnt be much below $950 - at least not
for very long, and the upside unlikely (on this trip at least) to exceed
$2700. I dont know if gold has bottomed yet (I hope it has), but with
$250 ish downside and $1500 ish upside (I'm talking a few years) it
happens to be an above average long-side bet from here (imo).
I'm with SSK, nutty commodities. And none of them bullish (not even a little bit), for knife-catchers only. Crude back up 3.50% today...sheesh. Whatever.
I think we have to 'forget' about the rockbottomside when markets opened yesterday. That was a liquidation event, one-timer. Scrape that and you have a move today that essentially makes up for Thursday and Friday selling. Netting to zero. And I'm thinking that...I was washed out of my short (the first time!) at 16.30...and can short again from slightly higher right now against a daily that looks like it might be doing a lower high type move. Thinking...not committed either way yet.
And maybe I don't really even care. It's just money :)
Of course I wish I'd grabbed some bullion at 14.40, thought about it, carted it, waited and watched it get away from me. Again, maybe I don't really even care. It's just bars of bs, after years of this selling, definitely bs. If we put in the spike bottom last night, the real one...I will be pretty mad...later :)
Andy Hoffman wrote: Heck, according to my good friend Rob Kirby, prices for size gold purchases in Asia, as I write, are closer to $1,800/oz than the rigged $1,200 level in Western paper markets. https://blog.milesfranklin.com/shale-oil-2015-subprime-mortgages-2008
Heck, according to my good friend Rob Kirby, prices for size gold purchases in Asia, as I write, are closer to $1,800/oz than the rigged $1,200 level in Western paper markets.
Okay time to man-up MF boys...ya'll can have ALL my gold for $1500/oz. Right now. I'll even pay shipping. That's a quick $300/oz (20%) gainer for ya's! Standing by my phone...waiting....waiting...waiting...um, when will you call to confirm?
I thought yesterdays action was related to the Japanese debt load and the downgrade from Moody's? Not that I have a lot of faith in rating agencies. I thought it was all about the debt all CB's were taking on, but then again, I'm a stacker. So go figure. Uupps, might have the wrong thread. Cheers