Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:44pm
survivalwstyle
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broken down

both AU/AG new low tics....nEEd to sEE AG to hold above 38 here. if this is the GAP fiLL on AU get out and get some AG. we could be testing 38 then 36.50....or we could bounce baby. goTTa watch. this is sOO much beTTer than just about anything.

enjoy everyday
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:58pm Vypuero
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Nice post Vypuero and I got very lucky last night ~~

First to Vypuero - a very nicely expressed post ~ You gave me some heart with my mixed experience with silver so far - very up, then very down and now starting to make gains back - slow and steady. Also, good luck today with your gold.

Just reporting - I got very lucky last night! Went out to see a music show with the BF figuring that I'd let my position ride since all indicators were that we were on the way up to 40 into the overnight. (I had bought in on Saturday at 38.40 and had to ride out that dip...) Alas MISSED his phone call b/c my cell phone volume was turned down, but JUST in the nick of time got an impassioned voice mail from my Monex rep, telling me all about the margin hike and to PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE phone him. (I know, I know - some of you don't trust Monex, but I'm not quite ready to give up on them yet as long as keep making money ~ and I decided I just don't want to be a "day trader" working on my own with so little experience either.) Phoned him right away of course and we sold out my position and thankfully, for a small profit. Only had 15 minutes remaining in the day to do it. I feel VERY lucky. Still cash on side and in no rush to buy back in right now.

For the music buffs here, we saw a local singer/songwriter/guitarist Peter Mulvey and his band do an interpretation of Tom Waits' Rain Dogs album. Excellent show! One of the featured tunes they covered was this (a favorite of mine!):

Tom Waits - Hang down your head

Kind of captures the spirit of the times we are in for me.

Best of luck and blessings to everyone navigating this margin hike ~~~

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:00pm
SilverWealth
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second leg down

Second good leg down in GLD commencing, target is 168 for that bottoming area but a gap below to 162 looms large and can magnetize. No guessing here. Just will be buying in small increments. I will leave the guessing and bargaining and haggling to the Bedoin tribesman.

Time for Granny to put on the black Birka and maintain a low profile.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:16pm pailin
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pailin wrote: I think silver

pailin wrote:

I think silver is going to lead gold for the rest of the day, as soon as we get out of COMEX selloff (presently in progress). Looks like this is going to be a sweet setup for QE3 silver to the moon. But we're going to have to wait for it and silver needs to get out from under 40. Sounds silly that I'm bullish silver right now, eh? I really like that it just bounced of 39 a little bit ago. It's moving with equities today vs. gold. I think money is quietly moving into silver stealth style. Yes, it dropped from 42 to as low as 36.90 but that weakness is actually pretty normal for silver to range in. Give those downdrafts to the broader markets and everybody freaks out and begs for free Fed printing. Don't count silver out just yet. Next thing to watch is while it's moving up w/stocks, if when the reversal occurs will it move up with gold. Confirmation for me is that it will.

Well silver is at least not outpacing gold to the downside so that's something. :) I wonder if the fact that it trades with stocks and with gold is what's keeping it in that range? I need to be more patient and wait for the bottom of the range.

It's your suicide if you base actual trades on anything I say.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:18pm flaunt
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@ flaunt - what to make of silver

Yes, good question Flaunt. Silver shows her split personality as a hybrid metal. It would make it so much clearer to know which she will choose for a particular time. I don't have a good barometer for this yet. But I think it might have to do with the deflation/inflation factor thrown in as well? Curious to read others' responses.

In these times, I prefer it when she puts on her precious personality. Silver is just like a good spouse/partner (was going to say wife, but didn't want to discriminate ...eheh) - industrious by day and precious at night.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:23pm
SSK
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Now that's  what I call a

Now that's what I call a waterfall!

ANd yet, plenty of miners still green: NEM, HL, JAG, CDE.

It's gonna be a buying opp soon. I'll be waiting witih DGP.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:25pm
BlackHawk
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Pailin U Ready?

$1585 and I will buy for sure. It sometimes pays to be a cheapskate.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:40pm BlackHawk
pailin
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BlackHawk wrote: $1585 and I

BlackHawk wrote:

$1585 and I will buy for sure. It sometimes pays to be a cheapskate.

Yes I am ready :)

I may put on FAZ going into close today if financials are still leading and indexes all up 3%+. I do not believe that will be the case tomorrow going into weekend. Not sure yet, but that and FSG are on my short list for review in an hour.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:48pm
SilverWealth
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Granny Gratitude

Granny would like to thank the good people at the Dow and especially her favorite t.v. friend Art Cash-in for stirring up such tremendous fear amongst the Bedoins yesterday at the close. She was sure the world was coming to an end and a tsunami the size of Everest was headed for Manhattan.

Now is selling most of her QQQ,FXi and DIA this afternoon which will pay for 2 months all expenses to Thailand and all the elephant trips she can handle this fall. Thats not much and nothing compared to how the champions trade but its enough for her. She hopes to set up as a Mama-san maybe in Bangkok and see if she can't get some good coin going there on the side. We see.

For now Granny is salivating at the 'selloff' in Gold and buying in slivers, hoping for lower and lower prices until all price chasers who rushed in at 1810 get tired and sell over their shares to her at yet another bottom in Gold. I mean who wants the stuff anyway? It keeps putting in top after top after top and one of these years its definitely going to go to zero. Only the old Pharoahs long dead in their graves and maybe King Solomon want it anymore. What use is it? Why all the Central Banks of the World are buying it hand over fist I have no idea.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 3:29pm pailin
BlackHawk
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I bought FAZ this afternoon

Quote:
I may put on FAZ going into close today if financials are still leading and indexes all up 3%+. I do not believe that will be the case tomorrow going into weekend. Not sure yet, but that and FSG are on my short list for review in an hour.

I bought FAZ at $61, which I've traded a couple times before in the last week for profit. Sold it too soon though, but greed is not so good all the time. I also bought a low price position on TBT, when the 30 yr t-bill auction made a turn up in that fund today. Sold my CORN in the green, and half my DAG still underwater today for dry powder.

It looks like every other day is a big day up or big day down. Tomorrow, I expect European bank news will rock the markets, maybe even cause panic. No insider info, just the cap on a mighty volatile week that the ECB may have been saving to spring on us after NYSE closes. Possibly they will decide the fate of the European TBTF's a little later on Sunday afternoon, per recent tradition. It will be good for the traditional stores of value that we love.

I'm tempted to buy some UGL on this dip.....We are seeing the gold bull trap unwind a little now, and prolly (miss the green guy JoeKa) the retail Asians will buy back in. Why should they care about margins hikes? Really, with so much cash going into return-free risk instruments, aka T-bills, why wouldn't they want to park some more in gold? But then, the danger is the commercial shorts. They seem to be able to control either gold or silver, but not both at the same time, like they used to.

Silver held well in this afternoon's gold raid, IMHO

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 3:31pm
Vypuero
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Trading Update

Thanks Dakini for the kind words. Also thanks to Granny, she told me there was a sale on Copper and all the plumbers were going to stop using it and only use PVC from now on. There was also talk of the horse and buggy making a come back, what with no oil needed any more. So I bought some of both at the great sale they had.

... Gold trades proved too fast - I was hoping for some swings back and forth in the 1,800s and was wrong, so my stops triggered. I did buy back 1 contract which has been up and down today - right now down a tad. So that was a lose today.

Silver - made a mistake put in a stop in case we got to around $38 but a waterfall stop-hunter-killer destroyed me when I snuck up to take a peek, and was not able to get back in at a cheaper price. So I am hunting for a new position between $38 to $38.20 range, hopefully by the weekend.

The sales proved fortuitous, as it turns out people do still need plumbing and oil. That saved me and has been profitable. I am staying in for now as I think the momentum will stay for a bit longer. Not ready for stops yet, especially with the hunter-killers from the matrix still running around.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 3:52pm BlackHawk
pailin
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BlackHawk wrote: I bought FAZ

BlackHawk wrote:

I bought FAZ at $61, which I've traded a couple times before in the last week for profit.

Stink bid in 56.25. We'll see if I grab it. Levered shorts scare me a bit, so I'm pretty ok if I don't.

EDIT - lost FAZ opportunity there. Financials selling off into close. Machines win again :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 4:03pm
FalseParadigm
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CNBS = Amazing

All day they've been going on and on about how cheap stocks are. 500 point swings in the DOW becoming a daily occurrence only further indicates how weak and completely unstable the financial markets are becoming.

Only about 2 weeks until Jackson Hole. Wouldn't surprise me if the S&P was below 1000 by then.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 4:22pm
Long John
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@ palin or atlee

Is there a 3x silver or gold etf?

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 4:36pm
I Am The Unknown Comic
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Tennis Anyone?

Well I might as well have gone golfing today. After getting my tail burned on Tuesday, and realizing that today is Tuesday part deux (good catch to whomever pointed that out earlier - I forgot who it was), I decided to sit out of the action today. Holding same positions and did not trade.

Yeah, in hindsight I missed some opportunities, but frankly the risk is too high. I'm not convinced of a direction on silver. To me, it looks like it could just as easily go up as down tomorrow. I said that yesterday too. Honestly, I'm glad I didn't go chasing silver around today.

The treasury auctions are over for the week, so the USD is free to fall again, and that should strengthen silver, though I doubt by much. Today's 30 year was a failure. That's big news because our 30 has been perhaps the best performer through the financial crisis - i.e. the world believed up until today that within 30 years the USA would be back on top and the economy humming along just great again. This all means that we are going to have to have stronger dollar and more manufactured "crises" for future auction dates because nobody wants to buy the Pieces Of Shit - unless they're scared "shitless" and therefore in the market for this shit. We will have to expect PMs getting hammered on those upcoming auction dates in order to drive buyers into treasuries.

Going into the weekend, I expect people to be mostly cash - I know I will be, and that risk off could weaken PMs too. I just hope silver picks a direction and SLV doesn't wander around aimlessly in the 37 range. I'm holding Near The Money calls and puts so flatline 37 price range is my arch-nemesis.

See you tomorrow. Maybe I'll tag along with Granny to the store and go trade something else for a day or two. Normally I would be tempted to play DDM, but one look at the 50 and 49 puts and you'll see why I am sitting out this market. The 49 put bid - ask is 1.70 - 2.60 and 50 bid - ask is 1.70- 2.50. Somebody needs to 'splain that one to me before I put my money down.

I agree with Turd. Time for drinks. Oh, and since today was a Tuesday repeat then I guess I should re-post my only comment on Tuesday, which was:

"Bullshit. All day."

Good luck trading to all, and remember that my thoughts are worth exactly what you paid for them. Trade on your own.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 4:51pm
SilverWealth
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volatility

The big volatility in the Dow here could well indicate a bottoming and bullish phenomenon. Not popular to say but this is technically a characteristic as miserable longs get shaken out, price chasers from one day to next get torched and then the Market turns,steadies and goes back up.

Who knows.

Granny took some welcome profits in the USO trade. Its been a while since seeing that bounce but the bounce is a good sign and the candle was nice. Next horizontal resistance at 35 and then 37. Time for Granny to head down to the drug store and stock up on the mineral oil laxatives in anticipation of more 'movement'.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 4:58pm SilverWealth
FalseParadigm
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SilverWealth wrote: The big

SilverWealth wrote:

The big volatility in the Dow here could well indicate a bottoming and bullish phenomenon. Not popular to say but this is technically a characteristic as miserable longs get shaken out, price chasers from one day to next get torched and then the Market turns,steadies and goes back up.

Who knows.

Granny took some welcome profits in the USO trade. Its been a while since seeing that bounce but the bounce is a good sign and the candle was nice. Next horizontal resistance at 35 and then 37. Time for Granny to head down to the drug store and stock up on the mineral oil laxatives in anticipation of more 'movement'.



I disagree.

Highly volatile markets are almost always indicative of weak and very unstable markets. You also almost never see =/- 400 days in the DOW routinely happening during a bull rally. Generally always happens in a bear market.

We have two weeks until Jackson Hole. I think the market takes a dive another 10-15+ percent from here. S&P could be below 900 by August 26th.

Also as ZH pointed out we're nearing the death cross (I think it already happened in the S&P).
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 5:14pm
uptofreedom
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fwiw, Ira said he's expecting

fwiw, Ira said he's expecting additional margin hikes...

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 5:20pm Long John
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@ Long John 3x leveraging

I'm not sure if you got the 3x from my post or not, but since you've mentioned 3x a couple of times - I'll respond. I buy and sell silver bullion (NOT ETFs!) with 3x leveraging with Monex. Which of course means you win big if price goes up (after reaching the bid/ask spread break-even point) and lose more if price goes down. DYODD, as they say. Monex doesn't have a great reputation with the BBB (as people have noted here), but they have been in business for 40 years and they are the only bullion company that does this. They did 8 billion in transactions last year and are the largest purchaser of bullion from the US mint. They got grandfathered into this kind of leveraging in the eighties. Sharing for info purposes only - in no way am I promoting the company - it just happens to be who I work with. Some get into doing it this way if they believe in the bull market and have the capital to ride the ups and downs while holding a position for a period of time. So for example, if you believe that silver will rise to 50 or 75 by end of year and buy at 35, you will make 3x your money by the end of the year (if you sell then). It's a gamble - of course, so one would only want to do it if they believed the price was going to rise. That was why I went with them b/c I am trying to build some fiat to get out of debt.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 5:30pm FalseParadigm
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Jackson Hole

We're definitely headed down into Jackson Hole, how low we go, don't know. Could be 10k on the dow? Just below there must seem pretty scary to quite a few. So yeah if can nail a stink bid on FAZ congrats. I sold my FAZ too soon, would have been nice to sell in the highs 70s. I may pick up some FAZ tomorrow morning, I don't think too many people want to hold going in to the weekend. This weekend seems like it could have some more surprises.

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