Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:10am
SilverWealth
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value alert

To those looking for value UNG is getting jumpy today as it heads into its good season.

Who knows, just thought I would mention it.It also can trade sympathetically with USO and that is quite oversold.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:11am (Reply to #3885)
SSK
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CK, CHK is roaring back.

CK,

CHK is roaring back. Hope you got in in the 27's-28's. I'm all smiles with it. LNG too. I actually plan to hold CHK for a bit. Long term, it's one you want in the portfolio.

Good luck.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:11am
sp001
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Thx atlee Now I've been

Thx atlee Now I've been thinking about it. If everyone thinks that qe3 is sure thing for end of august then equities will have to begin discounting it. I'd don't watch tv or mainstream news except handful of sites. Anyone able to gauge the qe3 sentiment. Do the participants feel high likelihood or low chance? If it is the first thr will be a rally with legs, if not, then I think dead cat bounce

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:19am
CK
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SSK, agree with you on CHK

SSK, agree with you on CHK long term. Best way to play natural gas and natty was/is super cheappppp.

CHK is a GREAT company.

1 month chart on Gold told me, "the sellers are going to have a party with this, you're invited"

:)

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:21am
SilverWealth
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Granny

Granny is beginning to see some value reappearing. Thru the day she may be buying GTU, some USO, and DIA and QQQ. She needs a thick magnifying glass to even read the chart and is not very good at that but a sale is a sale. Would love to see more selling in gold to clear the grocery store out. Right now all the Bedoin men are outside milling around and arguing violently about 'price', the best bottoms on their favorite camels, reading horse dung for secret signs and generally getting irritable and more and more unfriendly. This leaves GRanny alone in the store which she likes, some peace and quiet.

And that Holmes boy who some say used to be a big movie star is not around today. What a relief! Having been chased around the store all yesterday and then out around the block and a torn skirt and ripped blouse, Granny can catch her breath today and relax. She finally ending up selling most all her paper gold to Johnny Wad yesterday because he demanded to buy at premium and was evidently very excited about it. Oh well....

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:30am
CK
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Granny might like it if

Granny might like it if Portugal and/or Spain sell their gold eh? :)

I'm a big fan of Granny. She has had a great philosophical influence on me. She knits her quilts slowly but surely and always remains calm.

I got word from Granny that after she used her magnifying glass on HG, she had to grab some windex and paper towel to clean the screen and make sure what she was seeing was right. She spotted what may be a short term bottom on copper.

I have her telling me whenever there's a sale at the local SlaveMart.

Granny's wisdom is priceless.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:58am (Reply to #3891)
BlackHawk
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Granny going long on the market?

Going long the market? Wait for the going out of business sale on the financial sector. Once the big European banks show that they have no assets, are completely leveraged and Germany can't save the PIIGS plus new piglets, the contagion has to hit the US banks. After that slide happens, there will be sales. I remember how low GE and F were in 2008? Patience is a virtue.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 12:08pm (Reply to #3889)
FalseParadigm
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sp001 wrote: Anyone able to

sp001 wrote:
Anyone able to gauge the qe3 sentiment. Do the participants feel high likelihood or low chance?


There's not enough blood on the streets yet. All of the talking heads on CNBS continue to ramble on about "Have we hit a bottom? Buy stocks because they're SUPER cheap!"

The market will tank another 10+ percent in the next few weeks. As I've stated before, QE3 won't come until both Washington and Wall Street are begging for it. We're definitely getting close though.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 12:23pm
flaunt
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What do you all make of

What do you all make of silver? It seems to track with gold much of the time, but then at other times it starts tracking the stock market (like yesterday). Is gold suckering in the last few longs before plunging on the margin hikes? You know there are tons of insiders underwater on their short positions and we know what happened to silver when they were getting crushed there.

It's your suicide if you base actual trades on anything I say.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:06pm
SilverWealth
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Granny sold

After buying the sale on SVM,EXK and GDX this morning and SGG and FXI, Granny has sold the first bounce and counting her pennies.

It is excellent beyond excellent that GDX is now trading on its own and showing relative strength. This could be a big development. Granny will probably rebuy GTU sometime tommorrow if it gives her weakness again in the morning going into the weekend.

Same goes for GDX and its proxy, SLW. Always rebalancing and looking for biscuits,cheerios,Nescafe and girdles on sale.

Meanwhile the Bedoin men are still outside the store arguing before they plop down big money either direction for the 'weekend trade'. Some are betting now that the Camel bottoms will head North. Others say South. Granny is so confused. But a sale is a sale right? And now with her winnings she can grease down the ole German 88' she bought down at the Army Navy surplus last week and do a little target practice on the crow population that seems to be festering in her neck of the woods this weekend.

For anyone interested and I doubt there are many, Granny likes DBA and USO and BAL since they have been marked down on red and purple tags. Apparently just yesterday the World decided it would not eat anymore or cloth itself or fill up its gas tanks. This is unfortunate if I am to believe the trusted and honorable men on the t.v. financial reports.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:14pm
SilverWealth
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alert

I cannot tell people how bullish the action in GDX and GDXJ is and I am very serious. Of course this could mark a bounce and be a trick but what I say is a sea change in how they are regarded. The real test will come when Dow pulls down. Will they correlate or no.

Right now GDX is getting a bid when either Gold or Dow is going up. This is unusal to say the least. Are hedgies beginning to finally and quietly remove their shorts in this area and get out of Dodge City before the real shooting starts? If so this will be the trade of the next year, the GDX and GDXJ.

Who knows but I am watching with great curiosity.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:15pm (Reply to #3895)
ogie ogilthorpe
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Blackhawk

...I completely agree. We are far from being out of the woods!!

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:16pm
CK
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There we go. Got the money

There we go. Got the money flowing out of the bonds into the oversold market. It's beautiful. Been a long time coming. New Trend.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:22pm
SilverWealth
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candle off bottom in UNG

For those shopping value you may note a nice big white candle today off a big bottom in UNG as it heads into its best seasonal buy period. Granny sold the first thrust up off a discount buy yesterday but she may just reload both barrels and let the dobermans out the back door soon then turn on the tornado alarm and all radar-jamming devices.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:27pm
pailin
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silver

I think silver is going to lead gold for the rest of the day, as soon as we get out of COMEX selloff (presently in progress). Looks like this is going to be a sweet setup for QE3 silver to the moon. But we're going to have to wait for it and silver needs to get out from under 40. Sounds silly that I'm bullish silver right now, eh? I really like that it just bounced of 39 a little bit ago. It's moving with equities today vs. gold. I think money is quietly moving into silver stealth style. Yes, it dropped from 42 to as low as 36.90 but that weakness is actually pretty normal for silver to range in. Give those downdrafts to the broader markets and everybody freaks out and begs for free Fed printing. Don't count silver out just yet. Next thing to watch is while it's moving up w/stocks, if when the reversal occurs will it move up with gold. Confirmation for me is that it will.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:44pm
survivalwstyle
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broken down

both AU/AG new low tics....nEEd to sEE AG to hold above 38 here. if this is the GAP fiLL on AU get out and get some AG. we could be testing 38 then 36.50....or we could bounce baby. goTTa watch. this is sOO much beTTer than just about anything.

enjoy everyday
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:58pm (Reply to #3863)
Dakini
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Nice post Vypuero and I got very lucky last night ~~

First to Vypuero - a very nicely expressed post ~ You gave me some heart with my mixed experience with silver so far - very up, then very down and now starting to make gains back - slow and steady. Also, good luck today with your gold.

Just reporting - I got very lucky last night! Went out to see a music show with the BF figuring that I'd let my position ride since all indicators were that we were on the way up to 40 into the overnight. (I had bought in on Saturday at 38.40 and had to ride out that dip...) Alas MISSED his phone call b/c my cell phone volume was turned down, but JUST in the nick of time got an impassioned voice mail from my Monex rep, telling me all about the margin hike and to PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE phone him. (I know, I know - some of you don't trust Monex, but I'm not quite ready to give up on them yet as long as keep making money ~ and I decided I just don't want to be a "day trader" working on my own with so little experience either.) Phoned him right away of course and we sold out my position and thankfully, for a small profit. Only had 15 minutes remaining in the day to do it. I feel VERY lucky. Still cash on side and in no rush to buy back in right now.

For the music buffs here, we saw a local singer/songwriter/guitarist Peter Mulvey and his band do an interpretation of Tom Waits' Rain Dogs album. Excellent show! One of the featured tunes they covered was this (a favorite of mine!):

Tom Waits - Hang down your head

Kind of captures the spirit of the times we are in for me.

Best of luck and blessings to everyone navigating this margin hike ~~~

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:00pm
SilverWealth
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second leg down

Second good leg down in GLD commencing, target is 168 for that bottoming area but a gap below to 162 looms large and can magnetize. No guessing here. Just will be buying in small increments. I will leave the guessing and bargaining and haggling to the Bedoin tribesman.

Time for Granny to put on the black Birka and maintain a low profile.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:16pm (Reply to #3901)
flaunt
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pailin wrote: I think silver

pailin wrote:

I think silver is going to lead gold for the rest of the day, as soon as we get out of COMEX selloff (presently in progress). Looks like this is going to be a sweet setup for QE3 silver to the moon. But we're going to have to wait for it and silver needs to get out from under 40. Sounds silly that I'm bullish silver right now, eh? I really like that it just bounced of 39 a little bit ago. It's moving with equities today vs. gold. I think money is quietly moving into silver stealth style. Yes, it dropped from 42 to as low as 36.90 but that weakness is actually pretty normal for silver to range in. Give those downdrafts to the broader markets and everybody freaks out and begs for free Fed printing. Don't count silver out just yet. Next thing to watch is while it's moving up w/stocks, if when the reversal occurs will it move up with gold. Confirmation for me is that it will.

Well silver is at least not outpacing gold to the downside so that's something. :) I wonder if the fact that it trades with stocks and with gold is what's keeping it in that range? I need to be more patient and wait for the bottom of the range.

It's your suicide if you base actual trades on anything I say.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:18pm (Reply to #3895)
Dakini
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@ flaunt - what to make of silver

Yes, good question Flaunt. Silver shows her split personality as a hybrid metal. It would make it so much clearer to know which she will choose for a particular time. I don't have a good barometer for this yet. But I think it might have to do with the deflation/inflation factor thrown in as well? Curious to read others' responses.

In these times, I prefer it when she puts on her precious personality. Silver is just like a good spouse/partner (was going to say wife, but didn't want to discriminate ...eheh) - industrious by day and precious at night.

randomness