Pailin's Trading Corner

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Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 10:11am
sp001
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enjoy guys, going to bahamas

enjoy guys, going to bahamas to kick it for a week or so. may still trade if bored. prob minimal. hope by the time i get back something interesting will happen. i'll prob buy some GS puts again before my flight, farthest out dead money sept put strike

i don't think spy is cheap from earnings perspective if u use CAPE. also see the following market valuations

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

it is not cheap. why buy the market until it is cheap? i don't mean for trading, that's a different story. but to go in any more than 25% assets into equity...seems like there must be a better thing to do with ur money for now

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 10:19am
SSK
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I think we can call that a

I think we can call that a robust GDX bounce.

Sorry, meant SLW at 35. It's running now. You don't even need TA with SLW. Just buy the takedown at the whole number.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 10:19am sp001
atlee
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Bahamas

SP001

Enjoy your vacation!!

Thanks for the link.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 10:45am
CK
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Loving these gold shorts.

Loving these gold shorts. Long CHK & EEM as of end of day yesterday. Definitely not long term.

Hoping this is the trend for the next week or 2.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 10:52am
CK
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I'm waiting for the

I'm waiting for the headlines... "Gold down on profit taking, bargain hunting on equities" ...

If we could see the newspaper days/weeks/months in advance, we'd all be very rich :)

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:10am
SilverWealth
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value alert

To those looking for value UNG is getting jumpy today as it heads into its good season.

Who knows, just thought I would mention it.It also can trade sympathetically with USO and that is quite oversold.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:11am CK
SSK
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CK, CHK is roaring back.

CK,

CHK is roaring back. Hope you got in in the 27's-28's. I'm all smiles with it. LNG too. I actually plan to hold CHK for a bit. Long term, it's one you want in the portfolio.

Good luck.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:11am
sp001
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Thx atlee Now I've been

Thx atlee Now I've been thinking about it. If everyone thinks that qe3 is sure thing for end of august then equities will have to begin discounting it. I'd don't watch tv or mainstream news except handful of sites. Anyone able to gauge the qe3 sentiment. Do the participants feel high likelihood or low chance? If it is the first thr will be a rally with legs, if not, then I think dead cat bounce

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:19am
CK
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SSK, agree with you on CHK

SSK, agree with you on CHK long term. Best way to play natural gas and natty was/is super cheappppp.

CHK is a GREAT company.

1 month chart on Gold told me, "the sellers are going to have a party with this, you're invited"

:)

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:21am
SilverWealth
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Granny

Granny is beginning to see some value reappearing. Thru the day she may be buying GTU, some USO, and DIA and QQQ. She needs a thick magnifying glass to even read the chart and is not very good at that but a sale is a sale. Would love to see more selling in gold to clear the grocery store out. Right now all the Bedoin men are outside milling around and arguing violently about 'price', the best bottoms on their favorite camels, reading horse dung for secret signs and generally getting irritable and more and more unfriendly. This leaves GRanny alone in the store which she likes, some peace and quiet.

And that Holmes boy who some say used to be a big movie star is not around today. What a relief! Having been chased around the store all yesterday and then out around the block and a torn skirt and ripped blouse, Granny can catch her breath today and relax. She finally ending up selling most all her paper gold to Johnny Wad yesterday because he demanded to buy at premium and was evidently very excited about it. Oh well....

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:30am
CK
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Granny might like it if

Granny might like it if Portugal and/or Spain sell their gold eh? :)

I'm a big fan of Granny. She has had a great philosophical influence on me. She knits her quilts slowly but surely and always remains calm.

I got word from Granny that after she used her magnifying glass on HG, she had to grab some windex and paper towel to clean the screen and make sure what she was seeing was right. She spotted what may be a short term bottom on copper.

I have her telling me whenever there's a sale at the local SlaveMart.

Granny's wisdom is priceless.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 11:58am SilverWealth
BlackHawk
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Granny going long on the market?

Going long the market? Wait for the going out of business sale on the financial sector. Once the big European banks show that they have no assets, are completely leveraged and Germany can't save the PIIGS plus new piglets, the contagion has to hit the US banks. After that slide happens, there will be sales. I remember how low GE and F were in 2008? Patience is a virtue.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 12:08pm sp001
FalseParadigm
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sp001 wrote: Anyone able to

sp001 wrote:
Anyone able to gauge the qe3 sentiment. Do the participants feel high likelihood or low chance?


There's not enough blood on the streets yet. All of the talking heads on CNBS continue to ramble on about "Have we hit a bottom? Buy stocks because they're SUPER cheap!"

The market will tank another 10+ percent in the next few weeks. As I've stated before, QE3 won't come until both Washington and Wall Street are begging for it. We're definitely getting close though.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 12:23pm
flaunt
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What do you all make of

What do you all make of silver? It seems to track with gold much of the time, but then at other times it starts tracking the stock market (like yesterday). Is gold suckering in the last few longs before plunging on the margin hikes? You know there are tons of insiders underwater on their short positions and we know what happened to silver when they were getting crushed there.

It's your suicide if you base actual trades on anything I say.
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:06pm
SilverWealth
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Granny sold

After buying the sale on SVM,EXK and GDX this morning and SGG and FXI, Granny has sold the first bounce and counting her pennies.

It is excellent beyond excellent that GDX is now trading on its own and showing relative strength. This could be a big development. Granny will probably rebuy GTU sometime tommorrow if it gives her weakness again in the morning going into the weekend.

Same goes for GDX and its proxy, SLW. Always rebalancing and looking for biscuits,cheerios,Nescafe and girdles on sale.

Meanwhile the Bedoin men are still outside the store arguing before they plop down big money either direction for the 'weekend trade'. Some are betting now that the Camel bottoms will head North. Others say South. Granny is so confused. But a sale is a sale right? And now with her winnings she can grease down the ole German 88' she bought down at the Army Navy surplus last week and do a little target practice on the crow population that seems to be festering in her neck of the woods this weekend.

For anyone interested and I doubt there are many, Granny likes DBA and USO and BAL since they have been marked down on red and purple tags. Apparently just yesterday the World decided it would not eat anymore or cloth itself or fill up its gas tanks. This is unfortunate if I am to believe the trusted and honorable men on the t.v. financial reports.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:14pm
SilverWealth
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alert

I cannot tell people how bullish the action in GDX and GDXJ is and I am very serious. Of course this could mark a bounce and be a trick but what I say is a sea change in how they are regarded. The real test will come when Dow pulls down. Will they correlate or no.

Right now GDX is getting a bid when either Gold or Dow is going up. This is unusal to say the least. Are hedgies beginning to finally and quietly remove their shorts in this area and get out of Dodge City before the real shooting starts? If so this will be the trade of the next year, the GDX and GDXJ.

Who knows but I am watching with great curiosity.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:15pm flaunt
ogie ogilthorpe
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Blackhawk

...I completely agree. We are far from being out of the woods!!

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:16pm
CK
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There we go. Got the money

There we go. Got the money flowing out of the bonds into the oversold market. It's beautiful. Been a long time coming. New Trend.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:22pm
SilverWealth
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candle off bottom in UNG

For those shopping value you may note a nice big white candle today off a big bottom in UNG as it heads into its best seasonal buy period. Granny sold the first thrust up off a discount buy yesterday but she may just reload both barrels and let the dobermans out the back door soon then turn on the tornado alarm and all radar-jamming devices.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:27pm
pailin
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silver

I think silver is going to lead gold for the rest of the day, as soon as we get out of COMEX selloff (presently in progress). Looks like this is going to be a sweet setup for QE3 silver to the moon. But we're going to have to wait for it and silver needs to get out from under 40. Sounds silly that I'm bullish silver right now, eh? I really like that it just bounced of 39 a little bit ago. It's moving with equities today vs. gold. I think money is quietly moving into silver stealth style. Yes, it dropped from 42 to as low as 36.90 but that weakness is actually pretty normal for silver to range in. Give those downdrafts to the broader markets and everybody freaks out and begs for free Fed printing. Don't count silver out just yet. Next thing to watch is while it's moving up w/stocks, if when the reversal occurs will it move up with gold. Confirmation for me is that it will.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
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