Pailin's Trading Corner

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Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 11:23pm
sp001
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no question mark cuban is a

no question mark cuban is a dickhead. i am interested with the hacker analogy which i think is apt.

vypuero, mind me asking what indicators u used to get in and out of those /GC trades, that is a damn good ride u had. congrats

Wed, Aug 10, 2011 - 11:35pm
Vypuero
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Yes but...

Don't get the wrong impression - yes that was a good ride, but there was also a lot of bad. Over my short time trading I made a lot, lost a lot, made a lot again, lost again, now made again... so hopefully third time is the charm. I have to keep from getting over confident now.

I don't really use anything specifically technical except I watch what TF and others say about resistance and strength and for smaller moves I watch the short charts and try getting in at the bottom of waterfalls. I am finding it is better to wait until the waterfall is over and some "green shoots" come back before getting back in, so you don't just end up catching the wave DOWN.

I mean look we knew gold had to break, especially now. I also don't believe in trading ever against the overall trend. That trend now is PMs up, so I will never short them. It is also stocks down, so I won't go long on stocks. The reason is that even if my picks are bad, the trend is in my favor.

Right now my new golds are under so I jumped the gun - but I still want to be long for now. I am also still long a silver, and re-entered copper and oil at what I hope is the bottom - they have not been this low for over a year, and so far they are going back up a tad. The fact is that again the trend is inflationary, so even with slow economic growth Cu is a commodity, and demand is still up because of the developing world, even if there are issues. Oil is the same, and supply is running low. All you need is something to happen in MENA and it is back up, or a break in the stock plunge, etc... so it has more wins than downside risk.

The rest is luck - good and bad. I think I was lucky in that the huge run in silver gave me enough gains (the first win) that I could afford the loss and still be about even. Otherwise had I started with losses I would have been cooked and out.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 12:28am
CK
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santa monica, CA
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spy bottom

100-105 is supposedly going to be the bottom on SPY. We'll have to see. Right now I'm hoping it goes up as much as possible to get in a nice short. I think the highest we go now is 128-129. It can happen... it's unlikely and it would probably be bumpy and very short term. 120-121 is way more probable.

In that scenario gold might get sold off.. profit taking to bargain hunt on equities. That would be in the news :) Hmmmm a man can dream.

Gold might just go parabolic here and go to 2k, who knows for sure, not I. If there's no more buyers at 1800-1820 and it doesnt go higher, look out. I'd have to think shorting it around 1800 with an 1820 stop or so would have to be a great risk/reward play.

The market has so much technical damage... it's pretty sick. Financials were thrown under a bus. And something tells me we haven't seen the worst yet.

We're not trading against the market, we're trading against ourselves.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 12:48am
sp001
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spy support

1084 150 week ma, near recent intraday low also at 1077

1050ish (1040-1080 range)

1000

870-930

haven't looked at the way back up, nasty chart

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 12:50am
metcoalfan
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Jacksonville, FL
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What if....

Muted reaction to CME gold margin hike, relatively. Did they really think it would work? So hard to believe. Maybe they knew it wouldn't. Maybe they know they can't change the ultimate direction and they sit around planning only to try and control the descent. It's almost easier to believe.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 1:51am
Sitting Bull
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Atlee

Far be it for me to be giving you trading advice but I do seem to recall you posting a couple weeks ago cautioning others to stay away from silver in times of extreme volatility. Something along the lines of staying away from emotional trainwrecks and not getting your nuts caught in the wringer.

So I'd think the same would apply to the S&P and the wicked swings we're seeing. 1000 sounds real cheap from a current earnings standpoint but I'd be careful with all the forced liquidations that are necessary now. Heard on ZH the Bernank is being cautioned by Congress not to get too involved in Europe. BAC is cratering, could be Lehman cubed and the Fed doesn't seem to have that bazooka lying around any more.

If you're out of paper PM tomorrow, maybe a good chance to go on a golf gluttony tour with your buds. Or cruise out to California to the forest and the pines.

Keep hitting them straight my friend.

I danced on a Friday when the world turned black It's hard to dance with the devil on your back They buried my body, they thought I was gone But I am the dance, and the dance goes on
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 2:32am
Titus Andronicus
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Advice from Santa

Now that we have reached $1800 gold, what should you do?

1. Those holding gold to hedge the systemic risks of the Western Financial world simply stay in your position.
2. Traders lighten up your positions as gold approaches the next two Angels.
3. No market fails to have reactions at some point.
4. Reactions in this market will be deep, but brief when they occur.
5. The undervaluation of good gold shares has passed manic.
6. Utilization of some of your gold profits into good gold shares is pure logic.

Taken from:

https://www.jsmineset.com/2011/08/10/in-the-news-today-944/

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 4:24am
pailin
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Santa knows

He knows we're going to see a 10-20% dip on gold soon and his warning is CYA so the whiners don't walk away forever. Nothing different than what some of us have been doing here lately. atlee's concern over how silver reacts against a hard gold drop is well founded. I'm kind of interested to find out myself.

Today could be that day or not. I'm definitely not interested in trading equities long against the trend, as in the trend that's been in place since 1999. I'm pretty sure I'd screw that up :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 6:35am
Gendah
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Silver is moving along with

Silver is moving along with gold since a couple of days. It's all setting up for silver to go down along with gold.

Could this be the first of a few margin hikes? With such a short notice they might put up another one ending friday evening. WTFDIK.

If you don't live for something, you'll die for nothing (Hatebreed) Alone in a crowd (Miles Away) Technology complicates Simplicity (Snapcase)
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 8:23am atlee
Devise
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atlee wrote:I am so happy

atlee wrote:

I am so happy that everyone is back to making good money. No idea where things are going and when there will be a reversal.

I am out of silver as I fear what might happen to silver when gold decides to reverse. You know it will go down twice as fast as it went up. I am happy with profits in paper gold positions and will be completely out of all paper tomorrow morning too. That means it will probably keep on trucking right up to $2,000. Don't care how much higher we go. Been a great ride. And I own physical.

I want to start concentrating on catching the bottom of SPY. 1000 on the ES (S&P 500)? Will I get a chance to buy SPY at 96? I can't find a good ten year chart that will let me put ma on it. I did find a dow 30 and interesting that on a weekly chart, the low today stopped right around the 200 weekly ma. Anybody got any thoughts?

Atlee I'd love if you could give us updates on your SPY thoughts and trades in future.

You can access 10 year chart below and use ma. Select the Upper drop down to access.
https://www.optionsxpress.com/quotes/charts/fchart_detach.aspx?symb=SPY

Real time, tick to monthly, volume, options etc... Hopefully everything you need :)

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 8:27am
BlackHawk
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Short selling ban being considered in Europe

Hedge fund managers are severely bowed up fighting this move.

Can't believe I cashed in my FAZ position.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 8:34am
atlee
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Thanks Guys

CK, Sp001, Sitting Bull, Devise

Thanks guys. Appreciate the help. I am just thinking about some stinks bids on SPY. Ahead of last Tuesday's Fed announcement, I was able to trade SPY short then long then short and out in SPY. Nice moves in little over hour and a half time. Those kind of moves got me interested again.

I will let you know if I do anything. Right now I am just going to put some GTC stink orders in at 96. In case we have that 1,000 point down day. Wow what would that equate to in ES?

Sitting Bull, I am flat the market and have a 2:04 T time. Thursday is my golf day.

I wish you guys a profitable and prosperous day!

Good Trading.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 8:40am
BlackHawk
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I miss trollercoaster

He was a little troll, but funny. I think he got slaughtered May 1. Hope he's lurking and will tell me I'm wrong, he made a pile of money.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 8:46am
Vypuero
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silver has moved very little with gold

IF at all - I don't see that. Silver is "stuck" right now. I think a correction in gold won't happen until the market rebounds and not just in one day either - after a rebound of a few days when people start to think it is over, then we may see gold correct.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 8:51am
pailin
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silver has a $40 problem

Needs to clear $40, otherwise we range or head down again.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 9:00am
Rico
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I think this is shaping up as

I think this is shaping up as an excellent day to lose money trading--no obvious fat pitches (at least that I can see). It's for days like these that I always keep a rotating quiver of options/equities on hand--gives me something to follow and think about.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 9:24am
Vypuero
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PMs getting hit

I took a loss on my short term gold and added in some stops for AU and AG in case we get a strong header. My Copper and Oil are going up, helping counter the PM losses, which were not terrible. Not sure what is going to happen now this is a strange point we are at.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 9:41am
SSK
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Hard to buy anything shiny

Hard to buy anything shiny (miners or otherwise) when gold is down $40.

Nat gas-- that's another story. I'm in LNG and CHK

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 9:58am
SSK
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GDX robustly bounces off 58,

GDX robustly bounces off 58, I buy. More JAG, NGD, SLW.

Thu, Aug 11, 2011 - 10:10am
SSK
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Very nice. SLW was a

Very nice. SLW was a screaming buy at 33. ALready up .62. Sweet. I keep selling SLW too soon, so I'm going to let this ride a little bit. Will buy again when it dips back to @ 33.

JAG, this is your day in the sun. Love it. 5.29 was a nice entry today.

Looking at KGC. Earnings were good.

randomness